YiCai Global
本文英文版于2016年9月26日发表于一财全球。为便于阅读，以下先展示中文翻译，英文原文在中文之后哦。
This article was published by YiCai Global on Sep. 26, please find the English version after Chinese.
今年9月杭州G20 会议期间，印尼通信技术部长鲁迪安塔拉(Rudiantara)任命马云为其十名电子商务发展顾问之一。该职务工作内容尚未确定，但不论如何，马云毫无疑问将为印尼扩展电商版图作出贡献。
已经有不少评论者提出这会造成双方利益冲突。2016年5月，阿里巴巴集团对东南亚开展了大额投资，其中包括Lazada。然而根据Bain & Company的最新调研“东南亚是否能如期发挥其电商潜力”表明，目前尚无一家电商平台在印尼的市场份额超过20%以上，且还有许多国际电商平台计划在印尼开设分公司－如亚马逊计划对该市场投资6亿美金。可见，市场竞争非常激烈。
利益冲突并不是关键，事实是对马云的任命体现了中国的电商模式正在成为中国新的“出口产品”。这种发展趋势正如我定义的“中国电商模式（East-Commerce）”，即在发展中国家市场，中国的商业模式与西方模式相比更行之有效，并且成为商业模式的典范。
Jack Ma G20
印尼的电商市场
据印尼通信信息技术部数据表示，2015年印尼电商市场规模为180亿美金，预计2020年将达到1300亿美金，平均每年50%的增长率。印尼被认为是继中国和印度后的第三大电商市场。
印尼市场就像中国的“同胞妹妹”，在很多方面都非常相似：不健全的商业基础设施，高速的互联网和移动手机渗透，类似的市场结构以及日益激烈的价格竞争。当然也有不同之处。根据Bain &Company的调研，印尼的线上交易占市场交易的30%，目前尚无某一特定电商企业垄断市场。
零售市场则非常碎片化，国内产品交易的60%都由小型贸易商主导。印尼政府希望能够利用马云的经验帮助实现到2020年在线卖家量能达到800万户。目前，印尼电商交易量占总体交易的5%，而中国则为14%。
印尼互联网服务提供商联盟的一份报告指出:
印尼的电商数量达5100万户且2.5亿人口中有40%使用网络。
eMarketer网站表示印尼的手机市场活跃，已经成为亚太区域仅次于中国和印度的第三大智能手机市场。
对手机和智能设备的普遍接受度与中国类似；市场甚至跳过了电脑的普及。
Rudy Ramawy这样告诉我，他是前印尼谷歌总经理，现在则成为了一名成功的风险投资家。根据Bain &Company数据显示：
印尼的主要城市中使用手机上网的占27%, 而这些城市以外的手机上网率则高达79%.
最后来看看消费者购买行为。印尼消费者偏向在大型商场或是集市轻松购物，并且寻求价格上比较有竞争力的产品。这也是为什么中国的平台型电商在印尼运行良好的原因。
面临的挑战
但发光的并非都是金子。印尼市场仍有至少以下三方面发展不完善：物流，支付和政府保护。
因电商基础架构的建设，中国的电商发展与东南亚相比至少先进5年。中国线上线下的零售商可保证在1-3天内交货。而印尼则还很落后。雅加达邮报2016年4月的一篇文章表示，Lazada 的平均交货时间从2014年的8.2天缩短到了2015年的3.3天。而在付款方式上，较多电商交易通过银行转账或是货到付现的形式，这严重制约了电商的发展。最后，印尼政府仍在保护和开放政策上举棋不定：例如，外国企业对于当地电商零售企业的投资仍不被允许。
中国企业的机遇
中国企业在印尼已经有许多投资案例：京东、百度、联想、华为、Oppo、小米以及其他很多公司都开设了当地的办公室。但这只是个开始。中国企业已经在类似的市场环境形成了很好的模式，我相信他们在印尼也一定会获得成功。“当创立Tokopedia的时候，我决定采用类似淘宝的模式，因为它解决了与印尼电商面临的类似问题：营造创业氛围，培养消费者的信任以及建立产品渠道。” 印尼第一大电商平台Tokopedia的中国裔印尼CEO WilliamTanuwijaya这样对我说。
而这些正形成了发展的主要机会点：
大数据，IT基础架构， O2O，网络支付，智能物流及智能设备。
在O2O和智能物流方面，印尼最成功的案例则是Go-Jek，非常流行的摩托车预定App。Go-Jek是亚洲独角兽企业之一，它的投资方之一为同时也投资了京东和阿里巴巴的DST Global。它的主要服务范围为交通、快递、食物及商品运输。这种按需服务让我联想到了中国的饿了么、百度外卖和风靡全中国的各种O2O服务，这些服务使中国成为了全球最大的O2O市场。因此，中国企业与印尼相比领先了3-4年，可以利用其技术和专利优势与当地企业合作并实现全球化扩张。举例来说，2014年百度投资了巴西企业Groupon，该企业采用了中国的商业模式，其市场份额在一年内从30%提高到了60%.
在社交网络方面，大数据将扮演越来越重要的角色，它可以通过分析用户消费历史向用户精准推送产品广告，这将大大提高转换率。而这些还是印尼企业目前所做不到的。
为了争夺市场份额，当地企业将不可避免地发展其电子支付方案。目前在印尼还没有被大众接受的可靠支付系统。支付方式及其复杂导致很多时候消费者拒绝进行支付。印尼企业需要建立一个可靠的、人性化的、安全的支付系统用于支持移动设备。蚂蚁金服在印度市场的成功证明了中国商业模式在中国市场外的适用性，因此印尼一定是可以达成的“小目标”。
印尼政府已经意识到了电商产业发展的重要性，这也是他们愿意吸收海外投资并最终开放保护政策的原因。
马云的任命不仅仅代表印尼市场的发展机遇，更向我们传达了一个重要信息，即中国的商业模式在国内获得成功的同时，也将很快在国际上大显身手。
(Yicai Global) Sept.26 -- During the September's G20 Summit in Hangzhou, Indonesia's Communication and Information Technology Minister Rudiantara appointed Jack Ma one of the ten advisers to develop Indonesia's nascent e-commerce sector. The job scope has not been finalized yet, but among the other things he will contribute to the development of Indonesia's e-commerce road map.
There is no shortage of critics denouncing a conflict of interests. Alibaba's Group is investing heavily in South East Asia including the May 2016 stake in Lazada. However, according to a recent study produced by Bain & Company ("Can South East Asia live up to its E-commerce potential?") none of the platforms operating in Indonesia controls more than 20 per cent and many global e-commerce players are considering opening branches in Indonesia - Amazon plans to invest US$ 600 million. Hence, the market is very competitive.
The main point here is not the conflict of interest, but the fact that Jack Ma's appointment shows that the Chinese e-commerce model has finally become a "new export product". We are now facing the development of a phenomenon that I have called East-Commerce, where in emerging markets the Chinese e-commerce model works more effectively than the Western one, and has become the benchmark.
The Indonesian e-commerce market
According to the Indonesian Information and Communications Technology Ministry the e-commerce market was valued at US$18 billion in 2015, and is expected to grow to US$130 billion in 2020, with an annual growth of 50 per cent. It is considered the next frontier after China and India.
The market looks like China's younger sister and presents mainly four similarities: an underdeveloped commerce infrastructure, a fast Internet and mobile phone penetration, a familiarity with the concept of "bazaar" and growing price disruption. But there are differences. According to the Bain & Company research, social commerce already represents 30 per cent of all online transactions, and none of the e-commerce platforms controls the market.
As for the retail market, it is very fragment and small business owners account for around 60 per cent of gross domestic product. Indonesia's plan is to use Jack Ma's experience to allow 8 million Indonesian sellers to trade online by 2020. E-commerce currently represents less than 5 per cent of total sales, while in China is around 14 per cent.
The Association of Internet Service Providers in Indonesia reports that there are currently 51 million digital shoppers and Internet penetration has reached 40 per cent of the 250 million population. eMarketer states that Indonesia is a very mobile market and it has already become the third-largest smartphone market in the Asia-Pacific region after China and India. "The mass adoption of mobile phones and smart devices has much in common with that of China; it is leapfrogging computers," says Rudy Ramawy, former Country Manager for Google Indonesia and now a successful venture capital investor. According to Bain & Company in top cities 27 per cent of netizens access online using a mobile phone, while outside the city the number goes up to 79 per cent.
Finally, when looking at the buying habits, Indonesian consumers are perfectly at ease shopping in hypermarkets or "bazaars" and seek very competitive prices. This is why the Chinese marketplace-style e-commerce model works very well here.
The Challenges
But it is not gold all that glitters, there are at least three main areas where Indonesia is still very underdeveloped: logistics, payments and political protectionism.
China is at least five years ahead of Southeast Asia in terms of the infrastructure necessary for online commerce. In China, most retailers and e-tailers guarantee delivery of 1-3 days. Indonesia is still lagging behind. According to a recent article on The Jakarta Post on April 2016 the average delivery time for Lazada in 2014 was 8.2 days and 3.3 days in 2015. In terms of payments, many e-commerce transactions are currently paid through either direct bank transfer or cash-on-delivery, which is greatly limiting e-commerce growth. Finally, Indonesia is still struggling to find a balance between protectionism versus open policies. For example, foreign companies are still banned to invest in local e-commerce retail businesses.
Opportunities for Chinese companies
We are already seeing Chinese investments in the nation: JD.com, Baidu. Lenovo, Huawei, Oppo, Xiaomi and many others have opened offices. But this is just the beginning. I believe that Chinese companies can do well here because their business models have been shaped around the very same issues that Indonesia is facing. "When launching Tokopedia, I decided to use the Taobao model because it solved the very same issues that Indonesia e-commerce would have to address: fostering entrepreneurship, creating trust among consumers, and giving access to products," told me William Tanuwijaya, the Chinese Indonesian Ceo of Tokopedia, Indonesia's number one e-commerce platform.
The main opportunities will be in the growing sectors of: big data, IT Infrastructures, O2O, e-payments, smart logistics and devices. When looking at O2O and smart logistics for example, one of most successful startups in the country is Go-Jek, the very popular motorbike hailing app. Go-Jek is one of the Asian Unicorns and is invested among the others by DST Global who also invested in JD.com and Alibaba. Its services include transport, courrier, food and shopping delivery. This on-demand service reminds of the Chinese Ele.ma, Baidu Wai Mai and all the other O2O services that have transformed China in the biggest O2O market in the world. In this sector, Chinese companies have an advantage of three to fours years and can use their technology and know how to successfully partner with local companies and expand internationally. For example, when Baidu invested in 2014 in the Brazilian Groupon using the same business model it has in China, the Brazilian company market share went from 30 to 60 per cent in one year.
In social commerce, big data will play an ever-growing important role to provide a personalized experience for customers by recommending products based on a real-time personalization. This will in return improve the conversion rate. Indonesian companies are still behind in this.
To scale the e-commerce market local companies will eventually have to develop e-payments solutions. Currently in Indonesia, there is no reliable e-payment system that is also in universal usage. Payments are complicated and are often being declined by customers. Indonesian companies need to create a reliable system that is supported by mobile devices, user-friendly and safe. Ant Financial has already proven in India that its Chinese model works well outside China and Indonesia will definitely be a fertile ground.
Indonesian government recognizes the importance of the development of e-industry, which is why the country will attract more foreign investments and win its internal resistance to open up.
Jack Ma's appointment is not only an opportunity to develop the Indonesian e-market, but it is a message to Chinese companies saying that the very same model that has allowed them to be successful back home can be used to become international.
更多有关中国互联网企业国际化的信息，请关注：
More about the Outbound trend of Chinese Internet Company, please subscribe us:
DigitalMarcoPolo
网友评论