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红黄蓝2018H1点评(20180828)

红黄蓝2018H1点评(20180828)

作者: Ponge | 来源:发表于2018-08-28 23:44 被阅读19次

    一、半年报重点内容翻译:

    “We ended the second quarter of 2018 with net revenues exceeding the high end of our guidance range,” said Ms. Yanlai Shi, Co-founder, Director and Chief Executive Officer of RYB. “Our results were driven by steady enrollment growth in our directly operated kindergartens and increased franchise fee revenue. Thanks to the parents who reacted positively to our enhanced security and safety standards and educational services quality, as of June 30, 2018, the total student enrollment at our 90 directly operated kindergartens grew to 23,526 and our total number of franchise play-andlearn centers in operation grew to over 1,000.

    “我们在2018年第二季度结束时的收入超过了我们业绩指引的上限,”红黄蓝的联合创始人,董事兼首席执行官史燕来女士说, “这是由于我们直营园的入学率稳定增长以及加盟费收入增加所致。对于我们在安保及安全标准、教育服务质量方面的加强,家长的反馈比较积极,截至2018年6月30日,我们90所直营园的学生总数增加到23526人,我们的加盟亲子园总数超过了1000个。

    “During the quarter, we continued to focus on improving teaching quality with more stringent teacher recruitment requirements and training standards. In addition, at RYB, security and safety at our facilities continue to be paramount. This quarter, we appointed a Chief Security and Safety Officer, set up a security and safety oversight committee with key senior management members and set up a central surveillance control room at our head office. Furthermore, we also conducted extensive security and safety training throughout our network. Finally, toward the end of the second quarter, we started to accept new franchise applications for our play-and-learn centers after introducing enhanced franchise service standards, more stringent franchisee screening and acceptance criteria as well as a new revenue-sharing model. We believe our strategy of selective growth, while maintaining high standards for quality and safety, positions us well to meet the strong demand for premium kindergarten and early-childhood education services in China. Through our dedication to educational and services quality and the safety and security of our students, we are committed to sustaining healthy, long-term growth going forward,” Ms. Shi concluded.

    “在本季度,我们继续专注于通过更严格的教师招聘要求和培训标准来提高教学质量。此外,在红黄蓝,我们员工的安全和保障仍然至关重要。本季度,我们任命了首席安全防护官,与主要高级管理人员一起设立了安全和安全监督委员会,并在总公司设立了一个中央监控室。此外,我们还在整个体系内进行了广泛的安全防护培训。因此,在引入增强版加盟标准、进行更严格的加盟商筛选和验收标准以及新的收益分享模式之后,从第三季度开始,我们开始接受新的亲子园的加盟申请。我们相信,我们的选择性增长战略,同时保持高质量和安全标准,使我们能够满足中国对优质幼儿园和幼儿教育服务的强烈需求。通过我们对教育和服务质量的不懈追求以及对学生安全防护的重视,我们致力于健康持续的发展,“史女士总结道。

    Ms. Ping Wei, Chief Financial Officer of RYB added, “During the second quarter, we delivered a 25.6% year-over-year increase in net revenues. Our steady growth in enrollment at our directly operated kindergartens was a key contributor. In addition, we adopted Topic 606 "Revenue from Contracts with Customers" (ACS 606) applying the modified retrospective method to franchise contracts not completed as of January 1, 2018, which requires the recognition of initial franchise fee revenue over the service period while the prior recognition standard was upon the official start of a franchisee’s operation. This resulted in higher initial franchise fee revenue generated in the quarter, which was partially offset by lower revenue from existing franchisees as a one-off fee reduction and free or discounted products and services offered to them at the beginning of this year continued.

    红黄蓝CFO魏萍女士补充说:“在第二季度,我们的收入同比增长了25.6%,主要贡献来自于我们直营幼儿园入学人数的稳步增长。此外,我们采用了会计606“客户合同收入”(ACS 606),将修正追溯法应用于2018年1月1日未完成的加盟合同,这要求初始加盟费收入在服务期间确认,而之前的确认标准是在加盟园开始正式开始运营时再确认。这导致本季度产生的加盟费收入增加,这被现有加盟园加盟费收入的减少所部分抵消,因为一次性费用减免以及今年年初向他们提供的免费或折扣产品和服务仍在继续。

    Recent Developments

    In June, 2018, the Company entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 80% equity interest of an early-childhood education services provider in Shanghai with two facilities offering international training curriculum for children two to six years old.

    Subsequent to the quarter-end, the Company entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 90% equity interest of an education services group in Beijing with a portfolio of educational assets which includes international kindergartens.

    Total consideration for the two acquisitions was approximately $23.0 million.

    最新收购:2018年6月,本公司签订最终协议,收购一家上海早期儿童教育服务提供商80%的股权,为2至6岁的儿童提供国际培训课程。季末结束后,本公司订立最终协议,收购一家北京教育服务集团90%股权,并提供包括国际幼儿园在内的教育资产组合。两次收购的总代价约为2,300万美元。

    二、18Q2重要财务数据

    运营数据:园所数量持续增加,直营园入学总数持续提高,园均人数持续三个季度回升。

    园所数量 直营园总人数、园均人数

    收入端:总收入增长25.6%,其中服务收入单季增速35.2%(直营园人数增加、加盟园会计确认变更),产品增速-30.2%(加盟园暂停扩张)。

    毛利率:18Q2毛利率达到33.46%,为历史最好单季毛利率,不过历史上Q2单季毛利向来较高,17Q2毛利率为24.73%。毛利率的增长主要来自于加盟费收入的增长(会计原因?)。

    管理费用:依然很难控制在较低水平,18Q2增长速度为96.4%,原因是员工工资的增长,以及额外费用。

    EBIT和EBITDA:18Q2的EBIT为8,209,000,同比增长41.27%,调整的EBITDA为12,282,000,同比增长65.21%。

    预收账款:6月30日为6,822,000,较Q1时下降46%,主要是因为加盟园的停止加盟。

    经营现金流:18Q2的现金流为-1060万美元,去年同期为490万美元。主要原因是加盟的暂停。

    展望:预期第三季度收入在3700万-4000万之间,相比去年同期增速0-10%,增速略低于预期。预期全年收入1.6-1.7亿美元,上次预计1.55-1.66亿美元,有所上调。

    三、点评

    正如史燕来所说,18Q2整体表现略超预期。目前无法得知会计处理方式的变化对收入的影响如何,但可以看出,停止加盟以后,对公司影响较大的不是收入而是现金流。这或许意味着,公司收入的持续增加,其质量并不高,现金流的正向循环可能来自于更多的收取新加盟商的加盟费,而不是现有直营业务。公司的发展进程是快于其自身能够产生的现金流的。

    公司的毛利率、EBIT、EBITDA在18年第二季度都创造了最好成绩,规模效应初显。

    预收账款和经营性现金流的走差是公司出事后主动暂停加盟园导致的,风险可控。而且公司在18Q3重新开启加盟模式,这部分的财务表现有望得到恢复。

    管理费用确实很难下降了,不过明年以后的增速应该会下降。

    我参加了红黄蓝新一期的盟商培训,从实际体验来看,红黄蓝将成功的盟商招入公司内部,将加盟的流程进行了一定程度的标准化,预期未来加盟业务会比之前扩张更加迅速,管理更加规范。当然,实际落实情况还要跟进。

    Q3的业绩指引低于预期,但是却上修了全年的业绩指引,不知道具体原因。

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