The human brain contains 10 thousand million cells and each of these may have a thousand connections. Such enormous numbers used to discourage us and cause us to dismiss the possibility of making a machine with human-like ability, but now that we have grown used to moving forward at such a pace we can be less sure. Quite soon, in only 10 or 20 years perhaps, we will be able to assemble a machine as complex as the human brain, and if we can we will. It may then take us a long time to render it intelligent by loading in the right software or by altering the architecture but that too will happen.
人类大脑有1亿个细胞,每个细胞可能有1000个连接。如此庞大的数字曾经让我们气馁,让我们打消了制造具有类似人类能力的机器的可能性,但现在我们已经习惯了以这种我们很难确定的速度前进。很快,也许在10年或20年内,我们将能够组装出一台像人脑一样复杂的机器,如果可以的话,我们会的。然后,我们可能需要很长时间才能通过加载正确的软件或更改架构来使其智能化,但这也会发生。
I think it certain that in decades, not centuries, machines of silicon will arise first to rival and then exceed their human ancestors. Once they exceed us they will be capable of their own design. In a real sense they will be able to reproduce themselves. Silicon will have ended carbon’s long control. And we will no longer be able to claim ourselves to be the finest intelligence in the known universe.
我认为可以肯定的是,在几十年而不是几百年后,硅机器将首先崛起,与他们的人类祖先竞争,然后超越他们。一旦它们超过了我们,它们就能自行设计。从真正意义上讲,它们将能够自我繁殖。硅将终结碳的长期统治。我们将不再能够自称是已知宇宙中最优秀的智慧。
As the intelligence of robots increases to match that of humans and as their cost declines through economies of scale we may use them to expand our frontiers, first on earth through their ability to withstand environments, harmful to ourselves. Thus, deserts may bloom and the ocean beds be mined. Further ahead, by a combination of the great wealth this new age will bring and the technology it will provide, the construction of a vast, man-created world in space, home to thousands or millions of people, will be within our power.
随着机器人的智能与人类的智能相匹配,随着它们的成本通过规模经济下降,我们可能会利用它们来扩大我们的边界,首先是通过它们抵御对我们有害的环境的能力。因此,沙漠可能会开花,海床可能会被开采。然后,将这个新时代带来的巨大财富和它提供的技术的结合,我们将能够尽我们的能力在太空中建造一个巨大的、由人类创造的世界,居住着千百万人。
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