周小冬，工人，社会人、音乐人、多行业职业经理人、商人、电影人的多重人生历练，使思想更成熟，理解更深刻，尤其在当下作为一位先锋电影制片人，对中国电影的发展有着独立的思考及前瞻的预判！Zhou xiaodong, a worker, a social person, a musician, a multi-industry professional manager, a businessman, and a filmmaker, has experienced multiple life experiences, which has made his thoughts more mature and his understanding more profound. Especially at present, as a pioneer film producer, zhou xiaodong has independent thinking and forward-looking prediction on the development of Chinese films
中国影视行业精英们，以产定销你够格吗？
（文 / 周小冬）
2002年，是中国影视行业市场化的分水岭，因为允许民营资本参与市场竞争。随后，国家各种产业政策逐步放开，尤其是2008年后影院建设的提速，让整个行业随之沸腾。但相比而言，这个行业的市场化整体程度还是比较滞后的，尤其是从业人员的经营理念。
我在之前写过的《内容为王，是中国影视行业利益固化者的最大骗局》一文中讲过，院线电影是超快消属性的产品，市场化程度要求极高，但这个行业市场化起步晚，多数先行行业精英都还处在匠人思维、产品思维阶段，多数没有接受过竞争残酷的快速消费品行业的洗礼，再加上任何行业市场化初期都有过卖方市场的阶段，导致整个行业还处在以产品为中心的市场初期阶段，IP热、内容为王等等都是表象。
随着市场成熟度的发展，中国电影行业马上会进入买方市场，届时，会快速从以产品为中心向以客户为中心的方向演化，会真正形成以产定销的导演中心制与以销定产的制片人中心制并存的机制，但以产定销你够格吗？以产定销，顾名思义，就是先生产出产品，再去销售，当下中国电影作品基本就是这种形态产出，用IP改编或原创做出剧本，再去组织制片，市场意识强的可提前介入营宣，最后开始销售发行，这是任何行业市场化初期时的主要形态，但随着市场的成熟会演化为以产定销与以销定产并存的阶段，这时，以产定销可不是个个都能适应得了，这时就需要检视自己是否够格去以产定销！
在一个幻影的时代，我们时刻都处在一点即破的瞬间。In an age of illusion, we are all at the moment when one point breaks.
当下的观影人群已过了饥饿期，尤其是替代消费形式的不断推陈出新，导致消费行为越发理性，市场也会更细分更聚焦，在这种背景下，电影人再去自嗨天才之作，不去提早研究并锁定目标客户，不去前置互动目标客户，那你就会是一赌徒，除非你具备以下条件，还会有较大胜算： 1、天才， 我这里指的不是自嗨天才，而是真正异于常人的人，如毕赣导演；2、有强大品牌影响力。 指有鲜明的品牌透支力，如周星驰，张艺谋等流量导演及大IP的产品，可以透支品牌来吸引流量，若好，则继续加分，若不讨好，则逐步透支。3、成熟大制作、前瞻的技术及大场景。 这种类型可以让观众有超强附加值的愉悦体验，且可满足观众的尝新欲望，如李安导演的120幀的技术革命等。 以上是电影创作以产定销资格的门槛，各位对照，看够格吗？但即使这样，若只闭门造车，不提早互动市场，也有可能不尽人意。所以，以销定产应该是一种常态，应该是一种成熟的市场行为。
那么怎样才能做到以销定产？很多业内人士认为中国电影早就以销定产了，认为从冯小刚时代就已经开始迎合观众口味的商业片创作，但这其实只是产品市场化的初期阶段，还只是意淫观众需求的自嗨阶段，只有做到整个经营层面市场化，做到真正的市场前置才有资格说以销定产。而以销定产一定要以真正懂市场的职业经理人为中心，也就是制片人中心制，这也是业内现阶段为什么呼吁中国电影没有制片人中心制，只有导演中心制的原因，因为都是以产定销，所以主动权只能掌握在编剧、导演手中。好莱坞为什么可以导演中心制与制片人中心制并存，因为够格以产定销肯定会以主创为核心，如斯皮尔伯格、卡梅隆等。但不够格的坚决要以销定产，遵循科学的市场机制，以专业的制片人中心制降低市场风险。中国电影工业化的成熟标志就是能够真正进入到以销定产的制片人中心制上来！
总之，电影作为一种精神消费产品，最本质的还是要消费出观众的七情六欲，以销定产就可以针对性根据观众的需求进行调研和互动磨合来优化作品，而且还可提前锁定目标客户来精准营销，做到真正的市场前置！这一制片模式，本人已率团队开始运作，会择时向业内公开，希望能抛砖引玉。
在天玄地转的世界里，我呼吸到你的芬芳。In the mystery of the world, I breathe your fragrance.
China's film and television industry elite, production sales you qualified?
(wen/zhou xiaodong)
In 2002, China's film and television industry marketization watershed, because allowing private capital to participate in market competition. Subsequently, various national industrial policies were gradually released, especially the acceleration of the construction of cinemas after 2008, which made the whole industry boiling. However, comparatively speaking, the overall degree of marketization of this industry is relatively lagging behind, especially the business philosophy of practitioners.
I wrote before the "content is king, is China's film and television industry interests of the solidification is the largest fraud", the article said, theatrical film is super fast properties of the product, the marketization degree requirements is extremely high, but the industry market started late, most of the leading industry elite are still in the phase of builders, product thinking, most did not accept the baptism of a brutally competitive fast-moving consumer goods industry, plus any industry has a seller's market in the early years of the marketization stage, lead to the whole industry is still in its products as the center of the market initial stage, IP hot, content is king, and so on are all appearances.
With the development of market maturity, China's film industry will soon enter the buyer's market. At that time, it will rapidly evolve from product-centered to customer-centered. It will truly form a mechanism of co-existence of production-oriented director-centered system and production-oriented producer-centered system. To fix the quotas for marketing, as the name implies, is Mr Output products, go to sales, the Chinese film is the basic form of output, with IP based or original script, to organize production, market and strong consciousness of early intervention in xuan, finally start selling issue, this is the main formation of any early industry marketization, but as markets evolve into maturity to fix the quotas for marketing and manufacturing-according-to-sale production stage, at this moment, to fix the quotas for marketing is not everyone is able to adapt to come, then you need to examine whether or not they qualify to produce fix the quotas for marketing!
The moment of viewing people, hunger, had already passed through unceasing innovation, especially in alternative forms of consumption lead to more rational consumer behavior, market will be more subdivision focus, in this context, since the filmmakers to hi genius, not to advance research and target customers, not to lead the interactive target customers, then you will be a gambler, unless you satisfy the following conditions, there will be big chances: 1, the genius. I'm not talking about self-respecting geniuses, I'm talking about people who are truly exceptional, like bi gan. 2. Strong brand influence. Refers to has the bright brand overdraft force, if zhou xingchi, zhang yimou and so on flow director and the big IP product, may overdraw the brand to attract the flow, if good, then continues to add points, if does not please, then gradually overdraws. 3. Mature big production, forward-looking technology and big scene. This type can make the audience have a super value-added pleasure experience, and can satisfy the audience's desire to try new things, such as ang lee's 120 frame technology revolution. Above is film creation with produce the threshold that sells a qualification surely, everybody compares, see qualified? But even so, if only behind closed doors, not early interactive market, it may be unsatisfactory. Therefore, it should be a normal, should be a mature market behavior.
So how can you do it? Many in the industry believe that the Chinese film early manufacturing-according-to-sale, think from feng age began to cater to the tastes commercial creation, but this is just the early stages of the product market is only a psychosexuality audience demand from hi stage, only do the whole management level of marketization, truly manufacturing-according-to-sale market leading ability is qualified said. So how do you do that? Many in the industry believe that the Chinese film early manufacturing-according-to-sale, think from feng age began to cater to the tastes commercial creation, but this is just the early stages of the product market is only a psychosexuality audience demand from hi stage, only do the whole management level of marketization, truly manufacturing-according-to-sale market leading ability is qualified said. This is also the reason why at the present stage of the industry, there is no producer-centered system in Chinese films, but only the director-centered system. Because all films are produced and marketed, the initiative can only be controlled by the scriptwriter and director. Why can Hollywood director center make and producer center make coexist, because be qualified with produce decide to sell affirmation to be core with advocate create, wait like spielberg, Cameron. However, those who are not qualified are determined to determine production by sales, follow the scientific market mechanism, and reduce the market risk with the professional producer center system. The mark of maturity of industrialization of Chinese film is to be able to enter the producer center that produces with sell namely come up truly!
In a word, as a kind of spiritual consumption product, the essence of film is to consume the audience's seven emotions and six desires. Based on sales and production, we can conduct targeted research and interactive running-in to optimize the works according to the audience's needs. In addition, we can also target the target customers in advance for precise marketing, so as to achieve a real market leading position! This production mode, I have led the team to start the operation, will choose the time to open to the industry, I hope to lead the way.
狼泊弯艺术会所，每一次刻骨铭心的聚宴就在这里发生！量身定制：137 0121 1939（多多）
到北京宋庄，必到狼泊弯！
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