The year signaling a new booming period
（选自China Daily新闻，英文原文见http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201712/17/WS5a35e371a3108bc8c6735176.html)
新闻主要内容：
The world economy is showing definite signs of recovering growth. The international Monetary Fund has revised up its forecast for global growth in 2018 to 3.7 percent. In China, however, there is a debate on whether the country’s economy has entered a new booming period of growth.
世界经济复苏大局已定，不过，中国经济是否会高速增长还有待讨论。
学习句子
1.The world economy is showing definite signs of recovering growth. The international Monetary Fund has revised up its forecast for global growth in 2018 to 3.7 percent. In China, however, there is a debate on whether the country’s economy has entered a new booming period of growth. Market watchers, with a bit anxiety, are waiting for the upcoming annual Economic Work Conference to set the tone for the government’s take on the economy next year.
“The international Monetary Fund”，“国际货币基金组织”，该组织上调了2018年全球经济增长预期。“booming”意为“兴旺的，繁荣发展的”，这个词仅从读音上就能感受到它迫不及待的成长之势。在本句当中，“booming”用来修饰经济增长阶段，经济飞速发展之意秒出。
2.The anxiety is unwarranted if one takes a look at some of the key economic indicators.As a measure to stop capital flight following the devaluation of the yuan since August 2015, the government started a rather strong stimulus package in the first quarter of 2016. Its impacts were immediate. Local governments increased their investment in infrastructure; the housing market recovered (although later it was stabilized by the government); commodity prices regained much of the losses they had incurred in the previous several years; and industrial profitability improved.
回顾2016年的经济里程，为了防止“devaluation of the yuan”造成的“capital flight”，即人民币贬值造成的资本外逃，“the government started a rather strong stimulus package", “政府启动了相当强劲的一揽子刺激计划”，“increase their investment in infrastructure”，“加大了对基础设施的投入”，“the housing market recovered”，“住房市场复苏，“commodity prices regained much of the losses”，“大宗商品价格重新获得了前几年的大部分损失”，“industrial profitability improved”，“工业盈利能力提高”。综上，几个简单的动词，即“increase、recover、regain、improve”，就把2016年经济的整体态势描摹的淋漓尽致。
3.Moreover, what has happened in China has had a significant spillover effect on the global economy — global recovery benefited from China’s faster growth, which in turn has stimulated China’s own growth. One of the brighter signs is that after two years’ decline, exports began to grow again in 2017.
所谓溢出效应(Spillover Effect)，是指一个组织在进行某项活动时，不仅会产生活动所预期的效果，而且会对组织之外的人或社会产生的影响。本段说得是中国经济的增长也会刺激全球经济的增长，而反过来，全球经济的增长会更加刺激中国经济的增长。
4.Historical data provide a clear regularity for China’s business cycles: accelerated growth lasted six to seven years followed by roughly the same period of deceleration. Since 1992, there have been two booming periods, 1992 to 1997 and 2004 to 2010, and two decelerating periods, 1998 to 2003 and 2011 to 2016. Judging by this regularity, it will be safe to assume that 2017 is the starting year of a new booming period.
“acceleration”vs.“deceleration”，加速和减速，不再赘言。
5.That is not to say there may not be headwinds for China’s economy. One of the uncertainties is whether the government will continue to tighten up the market. The recovery starting from last year has been clearly led by investment in infrastructure and housing, prompting many people to believe China has reverted to its old investment-driven growth model.
总得来说，中国经济的前景并不明朗，本段指出不知道政府是否还会继续收紧市场，即“tighten up the market”，我们经常说的“勒紧腰带过日子”也可以用“tighten up”，英文是“tighten up my purse strings”。 另外，本段还指出很多人认为中国又回到了过去的投资拉动型增长模式，即“reverted to its old investment-driven growth model，“revert to”，“恢复原样子”。
6.The authorities, though, probably knew from the beginning that investment was only a tentative measure to boost domestic demand amid the risks of capital flight. That is why the investment policy, as well as the housing policy, has been tightened since the end of last year. This in turn has had a direct effect, slowing down the economy — the year-on-year growth rate has declined over the months this year. Anticipating the tight policy to continue, the market is forecasting a low growth rate of 6.5 percent for next year.
“a tentative measure to boost domestic demand”，政府大概也了解投资只是提振国内需求的一个试探性措施，“tentative"意为“暂时的，实验性的”。“slowing down the economy”，“放缓了今年的经济增速”，本段进一步阐述“经济增速是同比的经济增速”，即“the year-on-year growth rate”，如果经常搞混“同比”及“环比”，不妨尝试去记一下英文的这个词组。
7.A stronger headwind may come from the other side of the Pacific. US President Donald Trump has won a major victory by getting his tax cuts plan through the Congress. While the US tax bills’ long-term effects are unclear, this round of tax cuts will, in the short term, boost growth and consumption in the United States. In general, this should not be bad news for China. Because of the close economic links between the two countries, a booming US economy will have a positive spillover effect on the Chinese economy. However, China may face the challenge of stopping capital flight again because a strong US economy is likely to attract more capital.
美国政府的减税政策(tax cuts plan)当然会对全球的经济都造成影响，从短期来看，“boost growth and consumption in the United States”，减税会刺激美国经济和消费的双增长。另外，本段又一次提到了“spillover effect”，“溢出效应”,本段指出美国经济的快速增长同时也会刺激中国经济, “a booming US economy will have a positive spillover effect on the Chinese economy”。
8.This will be aggravated by the US Federal Reserves’ move to raise the interest rate. The Fed has already announced three interest rate hikes are expected next year. It looks like a repeat of the early 1980s, when President Ronald Regan announced a major tax cut, and the then Fed chairman Paul Volker aggressively raised the interest rate. The result was a modest recovery of growth, but significant appreciation of the dollar. This time, the appreciation of the dollar will again be a big probability event.
中国资本外逃的压力很大，除了上一段提到的美国减税政策是原因之一外，美国的另一政策提高利率是另外一个原因。“提高利率”，“raise the interest rate”，“减税”，“tax cut”，这些因素都会最终导致美元升值，“appreciation of the dollar”。
9.Against these headwinds, the Chinese economy needs a more accommodating government policy to sustain economic growth. The coming year will not be an eventless one; the Chinese authorities need to prepare for unexpected surprises. But robust growth will prevent the Chinese economy from slipping into the kind of disorderly depreciation and capital outflows that it experienced in the later months of 2015.
最后一段提出，为了应对种种不利因素，中国经济需要更宽松的政策来保持增长，“a more accommodating government policy to sustain economic growth”，“accomodating”有与人方便通融之意，可以说“The bank appears to be accommodating its customers more than it used to”，“这家银行的服务似乎比以前更好了”。文章的结尾指出中国经济的强劲增长能够避免人民币疯狂贬值以及资本外逃，即“slipping into the kind of disorderly depreciation”和“capital outflows”。
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