MY ABYSS: 我的地狱深渊
1979–1982
From 1950until 1980, debt, inflation, and growth moved up and down together in steadilylarger waves, with each bigger than the one before, especially after thedollar’s link to gold was broken in 1971. In the 1970s, there were three suchwaves. The first came in 1971, as a result of the dollar’sdevaluation. The second,which came between 1974 and 1975, took inflation to its highest level sinceWorld War II. The Fed tightened the money supply, driving interest rates torecord highs, which caused the worst stock market and economic downturn sincethe 1930s. The third and largest wave came in 1979–82 and was one of thegreatest economic/marketcrescendosandreversalssince1929–32.Interest ratesandinflationsoared and crashed; stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies went through oneof their mostvolatileperiods ever; and unemployment hit its highest level since the GreatDepression. It was a time of extremeturbulencefor the global economy, for the markets, and for mepersonally.
译文：从1950-1980年，债务、通货膨胀、经济增长上上下下就像巨大的浪头，一个大过另一个。尤其是1971年美元与黄金断开关联后，70年代一共有三次浪潮，1971年第一个，作为美元贬值的后果之一。第二个在1974-1975年间，把通货膨胀推到自二次大战后的最高峰，联邦政府收紧了货币供应，加息到有记录原来的最高点，导致了自1930年代以来最差的股市和经济下降。第三次也是最大的一次浪潮在1979-1982来临，也是自1929-32年以来的最伟大经济/市场加强和反转。利率和通货膨胀上扬然后跌倒谷底。股票，证券，商品，货币经历了一段有史以来最跌宕起伏的时间，失业率达到大萧条以来的最高峰，对全球经济而言也是最极端的动荡时期，对我个人和市场也是一样。
读后感：1979-1982发生了什么？造成全美乃至全世界的经济动荡。加息也没用，消减货币供应量也没用，那倒是什么原因？？有人说是资本主义社会的周期性癌症爆发，就是经济崩溃，这是不治之症，因为自由主义经济政策或者市场经济政策固有的顽疾。当然这以后发生了什么大家都知道，里根总统上台了，他提出的一系列正兴美国经济的政策很成功。
Interest rates==利率 。
Crescendos=逐渐增强
Turbulence==乱流，狂暴，动荡。
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In 1978–80(as in 1970–71 and in 1974–75) different markets began to move inunisonbecause they weremore influenced by swings in money and credit growth than by changes in theirindividual supply-demand balances. These big moves wereexacerbatedby the oil shock that followedthe fall of theShah of
Iran. That oil market volatility led to the creation of the first oilfuturescontract,which gave me trading opportunities (by then, there were futures markets ininterest rates and currencies as well, and I was making bets in all of them).
译文：1978-80年间（就像1970-71和1974-75年间）不同市场都开始趋向一致因为他们受货币和信贷增长影响的幅度远大于行业单一的供需平衡影响。随着伊朗王室的衰败引发的石油危机这些波动都被严重加强了。原油市场的波动创造了第一批石油期货合同，这也给我了我更多的交易机会（那时候在利率和货币市场都存在期货市场，我则在所有方面都下了注）。
读后感 ：是不是利用贷款利率很低的宽松政策贷款买进期货，然后乘油价降低买进，油价升高时卖出。因为货币政策收紧，信贷政策收紧，存款利率提升，相当于是鼓励存款和限制投资，投机，所以作者大量贷款做期货？？不明白。
Exacerbated==加重 恶化。
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Because allmarkets were being driven by these factors, Iimmersedmyself inmacroeconomicsand historical data (especiallyinterest rates and currency data) to improve my understanding of the machine atplay. As inflation began to rise in 1978, I realized the Fed would likely actto tighten the monetary supply. By July 1979, inflation was clearly out ofcontrol, and President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker chairman ofthe Federal Reserve. Afew months later, Volcker announced that the Fed would limit the growth of themoney supply to 5.5 percent. According to my calculations at the time, 5.5percent money growth would break the inflation spiral—but it would alsostranglethe economy andmarkets and likely cause acatastrophicdebt crisis.
译文：因为所有市场都被那些因素驱动，我把自己全身心投入近宏观经济和历史数据（尤其是利率和货币数据）以提升我对于现在玩的体制的理解。1978年当通货膨胀开始上升，我意识到联邦政府可能要收紧货币供应量，1979年7月通货膨胀显然已经失去控制了，总统吉米卡特指定美联储主席保罗沃克尔。几个月后，沃克尔宣布联邦政府会限制货币供应增长率在5.5%，依据我的计算，5.5%的限制增长会打破通货膨胀的螺旋上升规律，但同时也会遏制住经济和市场，并很可能导致一场大灾难式的债务危机。
读后感 ：为什么锁紧货币供应会遏制经济和市场？？债务危机可以理解，因为美国大多数都是贷款投资或者投机，美国人几乎不存款。
我是007李小军，以上是我自己的翻译，也许不会太准确，我能保证也不会偏离作者的意思太远，不至于误导各位，谢谢观看。
007-4478李小军
2018-6-9
觉得好，就点赞，就转发， 谢了！
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