编者按：全球经济都在同步复苏。然而本文告诉我们，正是因为经济形势的好转，民粹主义者更可能拿来往自己脸上贴金。实际上，经济复苏得益于很早之前的政策，只不过由于周期的原因，在近期才开始显现。所以，文章很坚决地说：“对于经济上升民粹主义者不值得任何表扬”，并且警告世人，他们还很可能“扼杀它”。
本文译自《经济学人》3月18日刊。

经济学人封面

On the rise

在上升中

A synchronised global upturn is underway. Thanks stimulus, not the populists.
（经济的）全球复苏正在同步进行。感谢经济刺激，而非民粹主义者。

1. ECONOMIC and political cycles have a habit of being out of sync. Just ask George Bush senior, who lost the presidential election in 1992 because voters blamed him for the recent recession. Or Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, booted out by German voters in 2005 after imposing painful reforms, only to see Angela Merkel reap the rewards.

boot out: If someone boots you out of a job, organization, or place, you are forced to leave it. (INFORMAL) = kick out
e.g. Schools are booting out record numbers of unruly pupils.

1）经济和政治周期历来都不同步。去问问老乔治·布什（是不是如此），他因为选民们就那年的经济衰退指责他而在1992年的总统选举中落选。或者(去请教)格哈德•施罗德总理，2005年在实施了充满痛苦的改革后被德国选民撵走，（结果）只看到安格拉·默克尔渔翁得利。

2. Today, almost ten years after the most severe financial crisis since the Depression, a broad-based economic upswing is at last under way. In America, Europe, Asia and the emerging markets, for the first time since a brief rebound in 2010, all the burners are firing at once.
   2）今天，自经济大萧条以来最严重的金融危机发生近十年后，一场广泛的经济复苏终于开始了。在美国、欧洲、中国和新兴市场，自2010年经济短暂反弹以来，所有的经济体都如烈火烹油，蓬勃发展。

3. But the political mood is sour. A populist rebellion, nurtured by years of sluggish growth, is still spreading. Globalisation is out of favour. An economic nationalist sits in the White House. This week all eyes were on Dutch elections featuring Geert Wilders, a Dutch Islamophobic ideologue, just one of many European malcontents.
   3）但政治情绪是不友好的。一场由多年缓慢的（经济）增长所培育的民粹主义叛乱仍在蔓延。全球化已失宠。一个经济民族主义者坐镇白宫。本周所有的目光都集中在荷兰选举上，荷兰伊斯兰恐惧症的理论家基尔特·威尔德斯在其中扮演着重要作用，他只是许多不满现状的欧洲人之一。

4. This dissonance is dangerous. If populist politicians win credit for a more buoyant economy, their policies will gain credence, with potentially devastating effects. As a long-awaited upswing lifts spirits and spreads confidence, the big question is: what lies behind it?
   4）这种不和谐是危险的。如果民粹主义政治家因经济繁荣赢得表扬，他们的政策将获得（民众）信任，这具有潜在的毁灭性影响。当一个期待已久的增长提振了精神并传播了信心，最大的问题是：它背后是什么？

All together now
现在都在一起

5. The past decade has been marked by false dawns, in which optimism at the start of a year has been undone—whether by the euro crisis, wobbles in emerging markets, the collapse of the oil price or fears of a meltdown in China. America’s economy has kept growing, but always into a headwind. A year ago, the Federal Reserve had expected to raise interest rates four times in 2016. Global frailties put paid to that.

put paid to: to finish off ; bring an end to

5）过去的十年已打上虚假繁荣的印记，在此期间每年的开始（人们）就放弃了乐观主义（心态）——无论是欧元危机，新兴市场的动荡，石油价格的崩溃，还是对中国（经济）崩溃的担忧。一年前，美联储曾预计在2016年四次加息。全球化的缺陷断送了它。

6. Now things are different. This week the Fed raised rates for the second time in three months—thanks partly to the vigour of the American economy, but also because of growth everywhere else. Fears about Chinese overcapacity, and of a yuan devaluation, have receded. In February factory-gate inflation was close to a nine-year high. In Japan in the fourth quarter capital expenditure grew at its fastest rate in three years. The euro area has been gathering speed since 2015. The European Commission’s economic-sentiment index is at its highest since 2011; euro-zone unemployment is at its lowest since 2009.
   6）当前的形势有所不同。本周美联储三个月内第二次加息——部分得益于美国经济的活力，也得益于其他地方的经济增长。对中国产能过剩和人民币贬值的担忧已经消退。二月份（产品的）出厂价通胀接近9年来的最高。第四季度日本的资本支出增长率为三年来最快。欧元区自2015年以来一直在提速。欧盟委员会的经济景气指数是自2011以来的最高点；欧元区失业率是自2009以来的最低水平。

7. The bellwethers of global activity look sprightly, too. In February South Korea, a proxy for world trade, notched up export growth above 20%. Taiwanese manufacturers have posted 12 consecutive months of expansion. Even in places inured to recession the worst is over. The Brazilian economy has been shrinking for eight quarters but, with inflation expectations tamed, interest rates are now falling. Brazil and Russia are likely to add to global GDP this year, not subtract from it. The Institute of International Finance reckons that in January the developing world hit its fastest monthly rate of growth since 2011.

notch up: to achieve something, especially a victory or a particular total or score
e.g. He had notched up more than 25 victories worldwide.

7）全球活动的预兆看起来也生机盎然。二月份，韩国作为世界贸易的代表，取得了出口增长超过20%（的成就）。台湾厂商已连续12个月宣布扩张。即使在那些习惯于经济衰退的地方，最糟糕的时期已经过去。巴西经济已经萎缩了八个季度，但随着通胀预期的缓和，利率正在下降。巴西和俄罗斯今年可能会增加全球GDP，而不是减少它。国际金融研究所估计，一月份发展中国家达到了自2011年以来的最快月增长率。

8. This is not to say the world economy is back to normal. Oil prices fell by 10% in the week to March 15th on renewed fears of oversupply; a sustained fall would hurt the economies of producers more than it would benefit consumers. China’s build-up of debt is of enduring concern. Productivity growth in the rich world remains weak. Outside America, wages are still growing slowly. And in America, surging business confidence has yet to translate into surging investment.
   8）这并不是说世界经济恢复了正常。本周到3月15日石油价格下跌10%，（人们）重新担心供过于求；持续下跌对生产者的经济造成的伤害会超过使消费者得益的程度。中国的债务累积引发持续关注。发达国家的生产率增长仍然疲软。在美国以外，工资仍在增长缓慢。在美国，高涨的商业信心尚未转化为激增的投资。

9. Entrenching the recovery calls for a delicate balancing-act. As inflation expectations rise, central banks will have to weigh the pressure to tighten policy against the risk that, if they go too fast, bond markets and borrowers will suffer. Europe is especially vulnerable, because the European Central Bank is reaching the legal limits of the bond-buying programme it has used to keep money cheap in weak economies.
   9）巩固经济复苏需要一个微妙的平衡行为。随着通胀预期的上升，各国央行将不得不权衡收紧抵抗风险政策的压力，即如果利率走得太快，债券市场和借款人将遭受损失。欧洲尤其容易受到伤害，因为欧洲央行已经达到了债券购买计划的法律限制，它曾在疲弱的经济体中用此计划维持货币贬值。

10. The biggest risk, though, is the lessons politicians draw.Donald Trump is singing his own praises after good job and confidence numbers. It is true that the stockmarket and business sentiment have been fired up by promises of deregulation and a fiscal boost. But Mr Trump’s claims to have magically jump-started job creation are sheer braggadocio. The American economy has added jobs for 77 months in a row.
    10）然而，最大的风险是政客们吸取的教训。唐纳德·特朗普在（获得）好的工作和信心指数后自吹自擂，洋洋得意。的确，股市和商业情绪已经被放松监管和财政刺激的承诺所激发。但特朗普先生声称已经奇迹般地成功创造了工作机会纯属吹牛。美国经济已经连续77个月增加了工作岗位。

No Keynes, no gains
没有凯因斯（的经济学），就没有收获

11. Most important, the upswing has nothing to do with Mr Trump’s “America First” economic nationalism. If anything, the global upswing vindicates the experts that today’s populists often decry. Economists have long argued that recoveries from financial crashes take a long time: research into 100 banking crises by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University suggests that, on average, incomes get back to pre-crisis levels only after eight long years. Most economists also argue that the best way to recover after a debt crisis is to clean up balance-sheets quickly, keep monetary policy loose and apply fiscal stimulus wherever prudently possible.
    11）最重要的是，经济增长与特朗普的“美国优先”的经济民族主义无关。如果有什么（关联）的话，（就是）全球经济回升证实了今天的民粹主义者经常谴责的专家（所说的话是正确的）。经济学家一直认为，从金融崩溃中复苏需要很长时间：哈佛大学卡门·莱茵哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫对100件银行业危机（案例）的研究表明，平均而言，收入只有在八年后才能回到危机前的水平。大多数经济学家还认为，债务危机后恢复的最佳方式是迅速清理资产负债表，保持宽松的货币政策，在任何可能的地方谨慎地运用财政刺激。

12. Today’s recovery validates that prescription. The Fed pinned interest rates to the floor until full employment was in sight. The ECB’s bond-buying programme has kept borrowing costs in crisis-prone countries tolerable, though Europe’s misplaced emphasis on austerity, recently relaxed, made the job harder. In Japan rises in VAT have scuppered previous recoveries; this time the government wisely deferred an increase until at least 2019.
    12）今天的经济复苏证实了（专家们开的）处方。美联储把利率稳定在最低限度，直到完全就业在望。欧洲央行的债券购买计划使得危机易发国家的借贷成本保持在可容忍的水平，尽管欧洲错误地强调节俭（最近有所缓解）使这项工作难上加难。日本提高增值税破坏了以往的（经济）复苏；这一次政府明智地推迟了（增值税的）增加至少到2019年。

13. The tussle over who created the recovery is about more than bragging rights. An endorsement for populist economics would favour insurgent parties in countries like France, where the far-right Marine Le Pen is standing for president. It would also favour the wrong policies. Mr Trump’s proposed tax cuts would pump up the economy that now least needs support—and complicate the Fed’s task. Fortified by misplaced belief in their own world view, the administration’s protectionists might urge Mr Trump to rip up the infrastructure of globalisation (bypassing the World Trade Organisation in pursuing grievances against China, say), risking a trade war. A fiscal splurge at home and a stronger dollar would widen America’s trade deficit, which may strengthen their hand. Populists deserve no credit for the upsurge. But they could yet snuff it out.

stand for: BrE to try to become elected to a council, parliament etc
American Equivalent: runstand for
e.g. She announced her intention to stand for Parliament.

13）到底是谁使得经济复苏的争论已经不仅仅是关于吹牛权那么简单了。对民粹主义经济学的支持将有利于像法国这样国家的激进政党，那里极右翼的玛丽娜·勒庞在为（竞选）总统而战。这也有利于错误的政策。特朗普提议的减税计划将给现在最不需要支持的经济打气——并使美联储的任务变得复杂化。让他们自己的世界观中错位的信念一再加强，政府的贸易保护主义者可能会敦促特朗普撕碎全球化的基础设施（比如为追求对中国的不满而绕过世界贸易组织），（从而）导致贸易战的风险。国内财政挥霍和美元升值将扩大美国的贸易逆差，这可能会增添其力量。对于经济上升民粹主义者不值得任何表扬。但他们还可能扼杀它。

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试着翻译以下句子：
1、经济和政治周期历来都不同步。

2、一场由多年缓慢的（经济）增长所培育的民粹主义叛乱仍在蔓延。全球化已失宠。

3、如果民粹主义政治家因经济繁荣赢得表扬，他们的政策将获得（民众）信任，这具有潜在的毁灭性影响。

4、 美联储把利率稳定在最低限度，直到完全就业在望。

5、政府的贸易保护主义者可能会敦促特朗普撕碎全球化的基础设施（比如为追求对中国的不满而绕过世界贸易组织），（从而）导致贸易战的风险。

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原文出处：经济学人杂志

翻译：追梦心；校对：七呵夫；编辑：七呵夫

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