In retreat 节节败退

The multinational company is in trouble

跨国公司的困局

Global firms are surprisingly vulnerable to attack

跨国公司居然如此不堪一击

AMONG the many things that Donald Trump dislikes are big global firms. Faceless and rootless, they stand accused of unleashing “carnage” on ordinary Americans by shipping jobs and factories abroad. His answer is to domesticate these marauding multinationals. Lower taxes will draw their cash home, border charges will hobble their cross-border supply chains and the trade deals that help them do business will be rewritten. To avoid punitive treatment, “all you have to do is stay,” he told American bosses this week.

唐纳德·特朗普讨厌的事情有许多，大型跨国公司就是其中之一。鸟尽弓藏，兔死狗烹，跨国公司不愧是“荼毒”美国老百姓的罪魁祸首，他们把国内就业机会带到国外，将工厂开到国外。面对这些四处掠夺的跨国公司，特朗普的答案是：回头是岸。通过减税，吸引跨国公司资金回流；增加收费，阻碍他们的跨国供应链，此外，助其经营的贸易协定也将被改写。要想不打板子，“你们除了留下，别无选择”，本周，特朗普对美国商界大佬们如是说。

Mr Trump is unusual in his aggressively protectionist tone. But in many ways he is behind the times. Multinational companies, the agents behind global integration, were already in retreat well before the populist revolts of 2016. Their financial performance has slipped so that they are no longer outstripping local firms. Many seem to have exhausted their ability to cut costs and taxes and to out-think their local competitors. Mr Trump’s broadsides are aimed at companies that are surprisingly vulnerable and, in many cases, are already heading home. The impact on global commerce will be profound.

说到霸道的保护主义论调，特朗普真的无人能及。然而在许多方面，他真的很落伍。作为全球一体化的代理人，跨国公司在2016年民粹主义揭竿而起之前，早就已经节节败退了。与本地公司相比，财务状况下滑的跨国公司的优势已经不在。在削减成本、赋税方面，他们已经黔驴技穷，在思维方面，他们亦不再是本地公司的对手。特朗普猛烈抨击的目标，正是那些不堪一击到令人惊讶的跨国公司，而且，在多数情况下，他们已经打算回国发展了。这将给全球商业带来了深远影响。

The end of the arbitrage 无利可图

Multinational firms (those that do a large chunk of their business outside their home region) employ only one in 50 of the world’s workers. But they matter. A few thousand firms influence what billions of people watch, wear and eat. The likes of IBM, McDonald’s, Ford, H&M, Infosys, Lenovo and Honda have been the benchmark for managers. They co-ordinate the supply chains that account for over 50% of all trade. They account for a third of the value of the world’s stockmarkets and they own the lion’s share of its intellectual property—from lingerie designs to virtual-reality software and diabetes drugs.

跨国公司（那些海外业务为主要业务的公司）的雇员只占全球员工的1/50。但是他们却举足轻重。几千家公司影响着数十亿人口的衣食住行。像IBM，麦当劳、福特汽车、H&M、Infosys、联想、本田这样的公司，都属于行业的标杆。这些公司合作的供应链占全球贸易的半数以上，其股票占全球股市市值的1/3之多，而且拥有绝大部分的知识产权，从内衣设计，到虚拟现实软件，再到糖尿病药物，不一而足。

They boomed in the early 1990s, as China and the former Soviet bloc opened and Europe integrated. Investors liked global firms’ economies of scale and efficiency. Rather than running themselves as national fiefs, firms unbundled their functions. A Chinese factory might use tools from Germany, have owners in the United States, pay taxes in Luxembourg and sell to Japan. Governments in the rich world dreamed of their national champions becoming world-beaters. Governments in the emerging world welcomed the jobs, exports and technology that global firms brought. It was a golden age.

随着1990年代初期中国和前苏联打开国门以及欧洲一体化，跨国公司迎来了蓬勃发展。投资人热衷于跨国公司的经济规模和效率。跨国公司没有将自己经营成国家封地，而是对功能进行了细化。一家中国工厂使用的工具可能是德国制造的，投资人可能在美国，在卢森堡缴税，产品销售到日本。富裕国家的政府梦想着他们的民族企业成为世界的强者。而新兴市场国家政府则对跨国企业带来的就业机会，出口贸易和技术表示欢迎。真可谓是一个黄金时代。

Central to the rise of the global firm was its claim to be a superior moneymaking machine. That claim lies in tatters (seeBriefing). In the past five years the profits of multinationals have dropped by 25%. Returns on capital have slipped to their lowest in two decades. A strong dollar and a low oil price explain part of the decline. Technology superstars and consumer firms with strong brands are still thriving. But the pain is too widespread and prolonged to be dismissed as a blip. About 40% of all multinationals make a return on equity of less than 10%, a yardstick for underperformance. In a majority of industries they are growing more slowly and are less profitable than local firms that stayed in their backyard. The share of global profits accounted for by multinationals has fallen from 35% a decade ago to 30% now. For many industrial, manufacturing, financial, natural-resources, media and telecoms companies, global reach has become a burden, not an advantage.

跨国公司崛起之核心在于，他们自诩为绝佳的赚钱机器。只可惜这种说法已经被粉碎了。在过去五年间，跨国公司的利润下降了25%。资本回报率跌至20年来的最低水平。美元走强和油价下跌解释了业绩下滑的部分原因。技术领域的超级巨星和大牌消费者公司依然兴旺。然而，这种痛苦弥漫之广泛，影响之深远，已经绝非是昙花一现了。在所有跨国企业中，有大约40%的股本回报率均低于10%，即业绩良莠分水岭。与土生土长的本土企业相比，大部分行业的跨国公司都发展越来越慢，效益越来越差。跨国企业在全球利润中的占比已从十年前的35%下降至如今的30%。对于许多工业、制造业、金融、自然资源、传媒和电信公司而言，全球布局已经不再是一种优势，而是一种负担了。

That is because a 30-year window of arbitrage is closing. Firms’ tax bills have been massaged down as low as they can go; in China factory workers’ wages are rising. Local firms have become more sophisticated. They can steal, copy or displace global firms’ innovations without building costly offices and factories abroad. From America’s shale industry to Brazilian banking, from Chinese e-commerce to Indian telecoms, the companies at the cutting edge are local, not global.

这是因为，为期30年的套利窗口期已经接近尾声了。公司的税务账单已经压缩得低到不能再低；在中国，工厂工人的工资正在上涨。本土公司也变得更加老道起来。他们不用花费成本在海外设立机构或建厂，就能够剽窃、复制跨国公司的创新成果，甚至取而代之。从美国的页岩气产业到巴西银行业，从中国的电子商务到印度的电信业，处于行业前沿的均为本土公司，而非跨公公司。

The changing political landscape is making things even harder for the giants. Mr Trump is the latest and most strident manifestation of a worldwide shift to grab more of the value that multinationals capture. China wants global firms to place not just their supply chains there, but also their brainiest activities such as research and development. Last year Europe and America battled over who gets the $13bn of tax that Apple and Pfizer pay annually. From Germany to Indonesia rules on takeovers, antitrust and data are tightening.

风云突变的政治前景让跨国公司的日子更加难挨。在世界范围内，跨国公司钻在手里的赚钱砝码在不断被抢走，特朗普就是这种转变的最新、最霸道的例证。中国希望跨国公司来当地布局的不仅是供应链，还包括最费脑子的生产活动，例如研发。去年，英国和美国为谁来收取苹果公司和辉瑞公司每年缴纳的130亿美元税金而打得不可开交。从德国到印度尼西亚，收购、反垄断和数据方面的规定都在收紧。

Mr Trump’s arrival will only accelerate a gory process of restructuring. Many firms are simply too big: they will have to shrink their empires. Others are putting down deeper roots in the markets where they operate. General Electric and Siemens are “localising” supply chains, production, jobs and tax into regional or national units. Another strategy is to become “intangible”. Silicon Valley’s stars, from Uber to Google, are still expanding abroad. Fast-food firms and hotel chains are shifting from flipping burgers and making beds to selling branding rights. But such virtual multinationals are also vulnerable to populism because they create few direct jobs, pay little tax and are not protected by trade rules designed for physical goods.

特朗普的到来只会加速血腥的重组过程。有许多跨国公司的确太大了：他们是该给自己的帝国瘦瘦身了。而其他公司，在各自的海外市场的根基却越来越深。通用电气和西门子都在本地化，将供应链、生产、就业和纳税等环节融入到地区或国家单位当中。另一个策略是“隐身术”。硅谷的各路明星公司，从优步到谷歌，依旧在进行海外扩张。快餐公司和连锁酒店也在从卖汉堡、铺床单向出售品牌经营权转变。但是，在民粹主义面前，这样的虚拟跨国企业也是不堪一击的，因为他们直接创造的就业机会，纳税也非常少，而且，也不受为实体商品设计的贸易规则的保护。

Taking back control 夺回控制权

The retreat of global firms will give politicians a feeling of greater control as companies promise to do their bidding. But not every country can get a bigger share of the same firms’ production, jobs and tax. And a rapid unwinding of the dominant form of business of the past 20 years could be chaotic. Many countries with trade deficits (including “global Britain”) rely on the flow of capital that multinationals bring. If firms’ profits drop further, the value of stockmarkets will probably fall.

跨国公司的败退让政客们有了一种更强的控制感，因为这些公司承诺，将听从政府的号令。但是，在不同国家中，相同公司的生产、就业和纳税所占的份额未必就会增加。作为过去20年中的主导商业形式，如果跨国公司撤退的太快，就有可能带来混乱。许多有贸易赤字的国家（包括“全球化的英国”）都依赖于跨国公司所带来的资金流。如果公司利润进一步减少，那么股市的市值也很可能出现下跌。

What of consumers and voters? They touch screens, wear clothes and are kept healthy by the products of firms that they dislike as immoral, exploitative and aloof. The golden age of global firms has also been a golden age for consumer choice and efficiency. Its demise may make the world seem fairer. But the retreat of the multinational cannot bring back all the jobs that the likes of Mr Trump promise. And it will mean rising prices, diminishing competition and slowing innovation. In time, millions of small firms trading across borders could replace big firms as transmitters of ideas and capital. But their weight is tiny. People may yet look back on the era when global firms ruled the business world, and regret its passing.

而消费者和选民又会如何呢？他们划着屏幕，穿着衣服，保持着身体健康，使用的产品却来自于他们讨厌的那些公司，那些鲜廉寡耻、竭泽而渔、麻面无情的跨国公司。跨国公司的黄金时代也是消费者选择及效率的黄金时代。它的消亡或许能让这个世界看起来更公平一些。但是，跨国公司的撤退并不能带回特朗普等人所承诺的全部就业机会。而且，它还意味着拉高价格，抑制竞争，及减缓创新。迟早，成千上万的小型跨国贸易公司将代替大型公司，成为思想和资金的传送者。但是，目前他们还很弱小。回想当年跨国公司统治商业世界的那个时代，人们或许会为它的消逝而感到惋惜。

原文出处：经济学人网站

译者：linda10030

本译文仅供个人研习、欣赏语言之用，谢绝任何转载及用于任何商业用途。本译文所涉法律后果均由本人承担。本人同意简书平台在接获有关著作权人的通知后，删除文章。