【Economist】The new geography of 

The Bay Area's primacy as a technology hub is on the wane. Don't celebrate.

作为科技圣地的海湾地区，其至高无上的地位已是日薄西山。

【Economist】The new geography of innovation: Peak valley

“LIKE Florence in the Renaissance.” That is a common description of what it is like to live in Silicon Valley. America’s technology capital has an outsize influence on the world’s economy, stockmarkets and culture. This small portion of land running from San Jose to San Francisco is home to three of the world’s five most valuable companies. Giants such as Apple, Facebook, Google and Netflix all claim Silicon Valley as their birthplace and home, as do trailblazers such as Airbnb, Tesla and Uber. The Bay Area has the 19th-largest economy in the world, ranking above Switzerland and Saudi Arabia.

“和文艺复兴时期的佛罗伦萨别无二致”。生活在硅谷的感受亦是如此。美国的科技之都，对世界经济、股市和文化均有卓越的影响力。从圣荷西到旧金山，这一方小小的土地上却孕育了三家世界五大市值最高的企业。苹果、脸书、谷歌以及网飞(Netflix)几大科技巨头均将硅谷奉为其发源地，行业先锋爱彼迎（Airbnb）、特斯拉和优步亦是如此。湾区是全球第十九大经济体，瑞士和沙特阿拉伯更居于其后。

The Valley is not just a place. It is also an idea. Ever since Bill Hewlett and David Packard set up in a garage nearly 80 years ago, it has been a byword for innovation and ingenuity. It has been at the centre of several cycles of Schumpeterian destruction and regeneration, in silicon chips, personal computers, software and internet services. Some of its inventions have been ludicrous: internet-connected teapots, or an app that sold people coins to use at laundromats. But others are world-beaters: microprocessor chips, databases and smartphones all trace their lineage to the Valley.

硅谷不仅仅是一处地方，亦代表着一种观念。大约80年以前，比尔·休利特和戴维·帕卡德在一间车库里开始创业，自那以后，硅谷便冠以创新和发明的代名词。硅谷几经熊彼特式的毁灭而又生生不息，一直居于硅芯片、个人电脑、软件和互联网服务领域的中心地位。诚然，一部分发明着实让人摸不着头脑，诸如联网的茶壶和贩售钱币用于自助干洗店的应用程序。但其他创新却令世人所折服，微处理芯片、数据库和智能手机均诞生于此。

Its combination of engineering expertise, thriving business networks, deep pools of capital, strong universities and a risk-taking culture have made the Valley impossible to clone, despite many attempts to do so. There is no credible rival for its position as the world’s pre-eminent innovation hub. But there are signs that the Valley’s influence is peaking. If that were simply a symptom of much greater innovation elsewhere, it would be cause for cheer. The truth is unhappier.

硅谷坐拥精湛的专业技术，繁荣的商业关系网，密集的资金池，赫赫有名的高等学府和极具冒险精神的文化，正是这样一个独一无二不可复制的结合体，纵使有人试图照猫画虎，也是枉然。硅谷作为世界顶尖创新圣地，世间再无憾动其地位的对手存在。但有迹象表明，硅谷的影响力已达巅峰。如果这仅仅代表着其他地方受其影响而有更多创新，无疑是让人欣慰，而事实却不容乐观。

Silicon Plateau

硅谷停滞期

First, the evidence that something is changing. Last year more Americans left the county of San Francisco than arrived. According to a recent survey, 46% of respondents say they plan to leave the Bay Area in the next few years, up from 34% in 2016. So many startups are branching out into new places that the trend has a name, “Off Silicon Valleying”. Peter Thiel, perhaps the Valley’s most high-profile venture capitalist, is among those upping sticks. Those who stay have broader horizons: in 2013 Silicon Valley investors put half their money into startups outside the Bay Area; now it is closer to two-thirds.

首先，有证据显示硅谷正在发生变化。去年，美国人更多地搬离旧金山而非落户于此。近期一份调查表明，百分之四十六受访者称他们计划未来几年内离开湾区，此数据高于2016年的百分之三十四。许多初创公司去到其他地方开拓业务，这一趋势得名为“离开硅谷”。彼得·蒂尔，称得上是硅谷最为高调的风险资本家，他也是离开硅谷的一员。而那些留下来的人视野更为广阔，2013年硅谷投资者将一半的资金投入湾区以外的初创企业，现在这个数额接近三分之二。

The reasons for this shift are manifold, but chief among them is the sheer expense of the Valley. The cost of living is among the highest in the world. One founder reckons young startups pay at least four times more to operate in the Bay Area than in most other American cities. New technologies, from quantum computing to synthetic biology, offer lower margins than internet services, making it more important for startups in these emerging fields to husband their cash. All this is before taking into account the nastier features of Bay Area life: clogged traffic, discarded syringes and shocking inequality.

促成这一变局的原因是多方面的，但首要原因当属生存于硅谷所需的巨额开销。硅谷是世界上生活成本最高昂的地区之一。一位创业家对此进行了估算，一家初创公司在湾区投入运营相对而言要比在美国大部分城市至少多花四倍的钱。比起互联网服务领域，从量子计算到合成生物这样的新技术，后者赚到的利润少之又少，如此，开源节流才是重点。但是，考虑上述因素之前还是先想想湾区生活的恶劣环境，拥堵不堪的交通状况，泛滥的毒品以及骇人的社会不平等。

Other cities are rising in relative importance as a result. The Kauffman Foundation, a non-profit group that tracks entrepreneurship, now ranks the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area first for startup activity in America, based on the density of startups and new entrepreneurs. Mr Thiel is moving to Los Angeles, which has a vibrant tech scene. Phoenix and Pittsburgh have become hubs for autonomous vehicles; New York for media startups; London for fintech; Shenzhen for hardware. None of these places can match the Valley on its own; between them, they point to a world in which innovation is more distributed.

如此，其他城市的重要性相应地得以凸显。考夫曼基金会，一家奉行创业精神的非营利组织。日前，根据初创公司和新企业的分布密度，将迈阿密劳德代尔堡地区列为全美最佳的创业地点。泰尔先生移居到科技蓬勃发展的洛杉矶。凤凰城和匹兹堡已是自动驾驶汽车之乡，纽约已是媒体初创公司的聚集地，伦敦已是金融科技之都，深圳已是硬件之城。上述城市，虽无一能匹敌硅谷，但却向世人昭示这个世界上创新地更为分散的事实。

If great ideas can bubble up in more places, that has to be welcome. There are some reasons to think the playing-field for innovation is indeed being levelled up. Capital is becoming more widely available to bright sparks everywhere: tech investors increasingly trawl the world, not just California, for hot ideas. There is less reason than ever for a single region to be the epicentre of technology. Thanks to the tools that the Valley’s own firms have produced, from smartphones to video calls to messaging apps, teams can work effectively from different offices and places. A more even distribution of wealth may be one result, greater diversity of thought another. The Valley does many things remarkably well, but it comes dangerously close to being a monoculture of white male nerds. Companies founded by women received just 2% of the funding doled out by venture capitalists last year.

如果更多地方能迸出金点子，这无疑是一个好消息。但人们有理由相信创新竞技场的门槛确实有所抬高。无论在何地，对于聪明人而言资本变得更为唾手可得：科技投资家越来越多地在世界各地网罗热点思潮，而并不仅拘泥于加利福尼亚。时至今日，已经没有更多的理由支持单一的区域作为科技枢纽。得益于那些在硅谷的公司，从智能手机到视频通话再到通讯应用程序，正是这些公司所创造的工具，使得就算不在同一地方办公的团队也能更高效地工作。如此一来，更为平均的财富分配应运而生，亦激发出更为多元化的思想潮流。硅谷在各方面均表现优异，然而单种族社会导向使其几乎只接纳白人男性技术员。去年，由女性所创立的公司只接到风险投资家所施舍的那百分之二的资金。

Shadows of the colossi

巨人的阴影

The problem is that the wider playing-field for innovation is also being levelled down. One issue is the dominance of the tech giants. Startups, particularly those in the consumer-internet business, increasingly struggle to attract capital in the shadow of Alphabet, Apple, Facebook et al. In 2017 the number of first financing rounds in America was down by around 22% from 2012. Alphabet and Facebook pay their employees so generously that startups can struggle to attract talent (the median salary at Facebook is $240,000). When the chances of startup success are even less certain and the payoffs not so very different from a steady job at one of the giants, dynamism suffers—and not just in the Valley. It is a similar story in China, where Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent are responsible for close to half of all domestic venture-capital investment, giving the giants a big say in the future of potential rivals.

问题是，更广泛的创新竞技场受到了削弱。其一便是来自科技巨头的主导地位。初创公司，尤其从事于消费者互联网业务的公司，在谷歌，苹果和脸书等科技巨头所笼罩的阴影下挣扎着吸引投资。2017年，在美国参与第一轮融资的公司数量同比2012年下降百分之二十二。谷歌和脸书为员工提供丰厚的薪资，以至于初创公司难以吸引到人才。（脸书员工的平均薪资为二十四万美元）创业成功的可能性十分渺茫，加之创业所得回报又与在一家科技龙头企业稳定工作所得薪资相去无多，创业者便会大受打击，这种情况不仅仅发生在硅谷。在中国也是如出一辙，阿里巴巴，百度和腾讯包揽中国近乎一半的风险投资，这使得三大巨头在未来潜在竞争对手前拥有极大的话语权。

The second way in which innovation is being levelled down is by increasingly unfriendly policies in the West. Rising anti-immigrant sentiment and tighter visa regimes of the sort introduced by President Donald Trump have economy-wide effects: foreign entrepreneurs create around 25% of new companies in America. Silicon Valley first bloomed, in large part, because of government largesse. But state spending on public universities throughout America and Europe has fallen since the financial crisis of 2007-08. Funding for basic research is inadequate—America’s federal-government spending on R&D was 0.6% of GDP in 2015, a third of what it was in 1964—and heading in the wrong direction.

其二，西方针对创新领域的政策愈发严苛。日益高涨的反移民情绪高涨以及特朗普总统颁布的一系列更为严厉的签证制度影响了世界经济：美国新创立的公司中，外资企业只占近百分之二十五。硅谷一开始的蓬勃，很大程度上是由于政府的慷慨。然而，自07至08年经济危机后，整个欧美地区的国家对公立大学的资金投入开始减少。基础研究的经费更是捉襟见肘—美国联邦政府在研究与发展方面的支出仅占2015年国内生产总值的百分之零点六，是1964年投入资金的三分之一—并且朝着错误的方向发展。

If Silicon Valley’s relative decline heralded the rise of a global web of thriving, rival tech hubs, that would be worth celebrating. Unfortunately, the Valley’s peak looks more like a warning that innovation everywhere is becoming harder.

如果硅谷的没落预示着全球范围内科技中心的兴盛，竞争对手的崛起，那将值得庆祝一番。不幸的是，硅谷的“触顶”看着更像是一种警示，警示人们不论在哪里，创新之路都将愈发艰难。

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Sep 1st 2018| Leaders | 1036 words