经济学人翻译参考：2018.5.12期L4：美国和伊朗会达成新协

作者: MTI考研 | 来源:发表于2018-05-24 20:53 被阅读806次

经济学人翻译参考：2018.5.12期L4：美国和伊朗会达成新协议？

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Leader 4

Iran and America

A new deal?

美伊将达成新协议？

Scrapping the Iran deal won’t do anyone any good

退出伊朗核协议百害而无一利

Donald Trump is acting on a wish built on a hunch

唐纳德·特朗普的任性而为

BY PULLING out of the Iran nuclear deal, President Donald Trump is counting on renegotiation or regime change. He is more likely to end up with war.

唐纳德·特朗普总统（Donald Trump）退出伊朗核协议，期待重新谈判或伊朗政权更迭。这一行为更可能以挑起战争收场。

On May 8th Mr Trump did not cut America’s ties with the Iran deal so much as take an axe to it. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as it is known, curtails Iran’s nuclear programme for a number of years and permanently subjects it to intrusive inspections, in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Mr Trump’s withdrawal from the “decaying and rotten” agreement honoured a campaign promise. However, the president was unexpectedly harsh in vowing to extend sanctions, not just restore them, and to punish any firm doing business with Iran wherever it is based.

5月8日，特朗普还没有如此大刀阔斧地切断美国与伊朗核协议的关系。众所周知，《联合全面行动计划》（The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action）多年来一直限制伊朗开展核项目，使其永久性受制于侵入性检查，以换取解除对伊朗的制裁。特朗普从这一“烂透了”的协议中退出，兑现了他竞选时的承诺。然而，特朗普不仅恢复对伊制裁，还以出乎意料的严苛态度承诺延长制裁期限，并处罚任何与伊朗有生意往来的公司。

Since the UN says that Iran was honouring the agreement, as even its critics allow, Mr Trump has strengthened the arguments of foes that America cannot be trusted and that the global rules it claims to uphold are made to be broken. The question for the other parties to the deal (Russia, China, Germany, Britain, France and the European Union) is: what next? The question for the world as a whole, especially the Middle East, is: what does this mean for Iran’s ability to get the bomb?

联合国表示，伊朗一直遵守协议，甚至伊朗的批判者也对此认可，但特朗普的做法却增强了其反对者的说服力，即美国不可信，美国宣称支持的全球规则制定出来就是要被其打破的。留给其他协议参与方（俄罗斯，中国，德国，英国，和欧盟）的问题是：特朗普下一步要做什么？而留给全世界，尤其中东地区的问题是：伊朗拥有了制造核弹的能力意味着什么？

First tragedy, then Farsi

开始的悲剧，后来的波斯帝国

In Tuesday’s announcement Mr Trump offered his own answers. He said that he is “ready, willing and able” to negotiate a new deal that limits Iran’s regional aggression as well as its nuclear weapons, though he offered no plan for bringing that about. He also issued a veiled appeal to the Iranian people, who he said are being held “hostage” by their government, to rise up against their oppressors.

在本周二发布的声明中，特朗普给出了他的回答。他宣称，“愿意，准备并且有能力”商定一份新协议，以限制伊朗的地区侵略行为和核武器制造能力，尽管他对如何达成这一协议并没提出任何计划。特朗普还暗地里鼓动伊朗人民反抗他们的压迫者，称他们正在被伊朗政府当做“人质”。

At its heart, Mr Trump’s plan is based on a hunch about sanctions. First it assumes that, with heavier sanctions, Iran’s economy will be less able to finance warfare in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Yet Iran’s belligerence is not the outcome of a book-keeping exercise. Notwithstanding last year’s street protests, which called for more spending at home, Iran finances troops, militias and terrorists because it craves influence and it perceives threats. Mr Trump set out to intimidate Iran this week: he may have left it more determined.

特朗普的计划核心是基于对制裁的预测。第一，这一计划假定，更严厉的制裁可以削弱伊朗经济在伊拉克、叙利亚、黎巴嫩和也门的战争中为其提供资金的能力。但伊朗的战争状态并不是纸上谈兵的结果。尽管去年的街头抗议活动呼吁政府增加国内支出，但伊朗却在资助军队，民兵组织和恐怖组织，因为它迫切希望改变现状，并且觉察到了威胁。特朗普本周开始对伊朗实施恐吓：称他可能更坚决地退出伊朗核协议。

Second, Mr Trump assumes that economic pain from new sanctions could force Iran to the negotiating table, as it did North Korea. Heavy sanctions can indeed lead regimes to negotiate, as Iran showed in the deal that Mr Trump has now rejected. But Mr Trump displays little sense of how the very leaders he has just welched on can surrender wholesale to his demands and survive.

第二，特朗普假设，新制裁带来的经济阵痛会迫使伊朗回到谈判桌上，正如他对付朝鲜的招式。严厉的制裁的确可以迫使政权进行谈判，就像伊朗在特朗普如今所反对的核协议中的表现那样。但对于自己所制裁的领导人如何全盘听任他的要求并得以发展，特朗普给出的理由并不具信服力。

Perhaps that is the point, and his real bet is that sanctions will bring about economic agonies that topple the regime. The mullahs will not rule Iran for ever. But the Castros in Cuba have withstood sanctions for decades. Iran’s theocrats have proved perfectly willing to keep order by force.

或许，这才是关键。实际上，特朗普真正的猜测是，制裁会阻碍伊朗经济发展，倾覆伊朗政权。伊斯兰教不会永远统治伊朗。但古巴的卡斯特罗（Castros）家族已经为反抗制裁斗争了几十年。伊朗的神权主义者们完全证明了他们乐意通过武力来维持秩序。

This newspaper would welcome an end to Iranian belligerence and to the regime itself, but a wish based on a hunch is not a policy. Instead, faced with the probable failure of Mr Trump’s scheme, the parties to the deal should strive to keep it alive for as long as they can. One aim is to demonstrate to Mr Trump and his supporters that global rules do matter. The EU should, for instance, continue to meet Iranian officials and protest to the World Trade Organisation about American sanctions on its companies, as it did 20 years ago when America applied secondary sanctions over Cuba. The other aim is to hold Iran back from restarting its nuclear-weapons programme.

本刊乐于看到伊朗结束战争状态，并终结伊朗政权。但基于预测的愿望并不是解决办法。相反，面对特朗普方案可能失败的情况，协议参与方应尽力延长协议有效期。这样做的目的之一是，向特朗普及其支持者们表明，全球规则非常重要。举个例子，欧盟应继续会见伊朗官员，并向世界贸易组织提出抗议，反对美国对其公司的制裁，一如二十年前美国对古巴发起的二级制裁。另一目的是，阻止伊朗重启核武器计划。

Realistically, however, China and Russia may not want to dig Mr Trump out of the hole he has made for himself, and the EU cannot save the deal on its own. The dollar is still dominant (though Mr Trump has surely brought forward the day when China clears global payments in yuan). Companies with a choice between operating in America or Iran will inevitably choose the bigger market.

然而，从现实来讲，中俄两国可能并不想把特朗普从他自己制造出的麻烦中拉出来，欧盟也无法凭一己之力拯救协议。美元仍占主导地位（但特朗普无疑把中国使用人民币进行国际结算的那一天提前了）。是在美国，还是在伊朗运营？面临这种抉择的公司毫无疑问会选择更大的市场。

So the gains from a partial deal will be negligible and Iran may well sooner or later restart its nuclear programme. The Iran deal guarded against that, by providing an early warning and the option to reimpose sanctions. Without it, Iran may seek to return to the old limited inspections regime, to build new centrifuges, to enrich uranium to near weapons-grade and to miniaturise warheads. If the Iranian programme goes underground—literally and figuratively—there may not be enough intelligence to assess the threat. Moreover, with sanctions already ratcheted up high, Mr Trump and his successors will have limited diplomatic scope to get Iran to stop. Instead, they will have to resort to military action.

不公正协议带来的收益微乎其微，伊朗也很可能迟早重启核计划。伊朗核协议就是为防止伊朗重启核计划而制定，协议设置了预警，并规定，如果伊朗违约，会重新受到制裁。没有伊朗核协议，伊朗可能试图重回具有局限性的旧监督政体，建造新的离心机，使铀浓度接近军用级别，并使弹头小型化。如果伊朗项目秘密进行，无论如何，各国都没有足够的情报来估量这一威胁。而且，随着制裁升级，特朗普及其继任者迫使伊朗停止核计划的外交手段将变得有限。相反，他们将不得不付诸武力行动。

You do not go to war with Iran lightly—would Mr Trump fight over, say, some extra centrifuges? Iran would be able to creep towards the nuclear threshold. And, unlike the Iraqi and Syrian programmes, which were destroyed in one mission by the Israeli air force, Iran’s know-how and industrial capacity cannot be bombed out of existence. If Iran is determined to get a weapon, America or Israel will have to bomb it every few years. How would they justify that? It is hard to think of any previous American president tossing aside an international agreement for such poor odds and at such a heavy cost.

各国不会轻易与伊朗开战，那么特朗普会为伊朗额外建造一些离心机而发动战争么？伊朗有能力触摸到核武器的门槛。而且，与伊拉克和叙利亚在以色列空军行动中被破坏的项目不同，伊朗的专有技术和工业能力不会被炸弹抹除。如果伊朗决心制造核武器，美国或以色列将必须隔几年就对其进行一次轰炸。他们又该如何为此解释？美国历任总统很少有退出国际协定的，并且是以如此惨重的代价。

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