波兰的实际掌权者从公众视野中消失

WARSAW
华沙

The country’s real leader has disappeared from view
波兰的实际掌权者从公众视野中消失

Poland has both a president and a prime minister, but Jaroslaw Kaczynski, chairman of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, is its real leader. Mr Kaczynski, who turns 69 next week, is an ordinary MP with no cabinet post. Yet since PiS came to power in 2015, he has been behind the overhaul of the country’s institutions, most recently the judiciary, which the European Commission says threatens the rule of law. Along with Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, he has stoked nationalist fears at home and defied Brussels by refusing to take in refugees from the Middle East.
据英国《经济学人》网站的报道：波兰既设有总统，又设总理，但法律与公正党主席雅罗斯瓦夫•卡钦斯基(Jaroslaw Kaczynski)才是该国的实际领导人。卡钦斯基是一位没担任内阁职位的普通议员，下周将满69岁。但自2015年法律与公正党执政以来，他一直是波兰政府机构改革的幕后推手。欧盟委员会(European Commission)称，波兰近来的司法机构改革对法治构成了威胁。同匈牙利总理维克托•欧尔班(Viktor Orban)一样，雅罗斯瓦夫•卡钦斯基在本国内激起了民族主义者的担忧，并拒绝执行欧盟的移民安置计划，不接受来自中东的移民。

But recently, Mr Kaczynski has hardly been seen, spending several weeks in a military hospital in Warsaw; he emerged only briefly before slipping out of sight once more. His absence has raised questions about PiS’s future—and Poland’s.
最近，卡钦斯基在华沙一家军事医院待了数周，但鲜有露面；在再次从公众视野消失前，他只是短暂现身。他的消失让外界对法律与公正党和波兰的未来产生了担忧。

Known to his followers as prezes (chairman), Mr Kaczynski has dominated his party for over a decade. In 2006-07, during PiS’s first stint in power, he served as prime minister, while his twin brother, Lech, who died in a plane crash in Russia in 2010, was president. This time, he has stayed out of the limelight, installing less divisive figures in office.
雅罗斯瓦夫•卡钦斯基已领导他的法律与公正党10多年，追随者称其为主席。 2006-07年，在法律与公正党初次执政期间，雅罗斯瓦夫•卡钦斯基担任波兰总理，其弟莱赫•卡钦斯基担任波兰总统。2010年，莱赫•卡钦斯基在俄罗斯一场坠机事件中遇难。这一次，他一直避开聚光灯，安置争议较少的人士执政。

Mr Kaczynski’s disappearance has prompted rumours about his health. Officially, he is having trouble with his knee. The hospital says he has osteoarthritis—a condition that does not usually require so long a stay.  
雅罗斯瓦夫•卡钦斯基的消失已引发了一些关于其身体健康的谣言。官方报道称，卡钦斯基的膝盖出现不适。卡钦斯基入住的医院表示，他患有骨关节炎—一种通常不需住院太久症状。

Mr Kaczynski has no clear successor. Mateusz Morawiecki, a former banker whom Mr Kaczynski promoted to prime minister in December, lacks a strong political base. In a recent poll, just 14% of respondents tipped him as MrKaczynski’s successor; 43% answered “don’t know”.
卡钦斯基暂无明确的继任者。2017年12月，前银行高管马泰乌什•莫拉维茨基（Mateusz Morawiecki）晋升为总理，但缺乏强大的政治基础。在最近的一项民意调查中，只有14%的受访者猜测他将是卡钦斯基的继任者；43%的受访者回答“不知道”。

For now, PiS remains on top. The party still leads in polls, though its advantage over the centrist opposition has narrowed a bit. On June 8th Mr Kaczynski emerged from hospital after over a month, thanking journalists waiting outside his home for “their interest in a humble member of parliament”. But with further treatment due, speculation about his condition continues. Anyone hoping to replace Mr Kaczynski will have to be “very patient”, said the interior minister, Joachim Brudzinski, one of his confidants, last month. Yet as Poland heads into election season, the chairman’s health will weigh heavy on PiS. Europe, too, will be watching.  
目前，法律与公正党仍然占据优势地位。尽管同中间派反对党的优势有所缩小，但法律与公正党在民意调查中仍处于领先地位。6月8日，卡钦斯基住院一个多月后现身，向“对一位卑微议员表示关注”并在其家外等候的记者致谢。但随着进一步的治疗，公众对他病情的猜测仍在继续。波兰内政部长乔希姆•布鲁津斯基(Joachim Brudzinski)是卡钦斯基的密友之一。他上月表示，任何希望取代卡钦斯基的人士务必要“非常有耐心”。然而，随着波兰选举季节的临近，主席的健康状况将对法律与公正党带来重要影响。欧洲也在密切关注。 （译：袁静）

https://www.economist.com/europe/2018/06/14/jaroslaw-kaczynski-polands-real-leader-has-vanished