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这期的封面标题是How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea
There are no good options to curb Kim Jong Un. But blundering into war would be the worst
如何避免和朝鲜进行核战争
没有什么好的办法能够限制金三胖，但要是没搞好开战了，那会是最坏的情况
IT IS odd that North Korea causes so much trouble. It is not exactly a superpower. Its economy is only a fiftieth as big as that of its democratic capitalist cousin, South Korea. Americans spend twice its total GDP on their pets. Yet Kim Jong Un’s backward little dictatorship has grabbed the attention of the whole world, and even of America’s president, with its nuclear brinkmanship. On July 28th it tested an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit Los Angeles. Before long, it will be able to mount nuclear warheads on such missiles, as it already can on missiles aimed at South Korea and Japan. In charge of this terrifying arsenal is a man who was brought up as a demigod and cares nothing for human life—witness the innocents beaten to death with hammers in his gigantic gulag. Last week his foreign ministry vowed that if the regime’s “supreme dignity” is threatened, it will “pre-emptively annihilate” the countries that threaten it, with all means “including the nuclear ones”. Only a fool could fail to be alarmed.
北朝鲜能搞出这么多事真的挺神奇。它不是什么超级大国。他的经济体量只有他那搞民主资本主义的兄弟-韩国的五十分之一。美国人一年花在宠物上的钱是它GDP的两倍。但是三胖这种开历史倒车的小独裁却引起了全世界的关注，包括美国总统，就因为他的核边缘政策。7月28日它测试发射了洲际弹道导弹，射程可以打到洛杉矶。不久以后， 他将会有能力把核弹头挂在这种导弹上，对于日本和韩国他已经有这种打击能力了. 控制这个恐怖军工厂的是一个从小就被当做英雄崇拜着长大的人，他对于人命漠不关心，可以在他那巨大的集中营里冷眼目睹无辜的人被铁锤活活敲死。就在上周他的外交部门放出狠话，说若是政权的“最高尊严”受到威胁，他们将会对威胁国家先发制人,实施打击，并保留使用核武器在内一切手段的权利。只有傻子才会不害怕
What another Korean war might look like
Yet the most serious danger is not that one side will suddenly try to devastate the other. It is that both sides will miscalculate, and that a spiral of escalation will lead to a catastrophe that no one wants. Our briefing this week lays out, step by step, one way that America and North Korea might blunder into a nuclear war. It also lists some of the likely consequences. These include: for North Korea, the destruction of its regime and the death of hundreds of thousands of people. For South Korea, the destruction of Seoul, a city of 10m within easy range of 1,000 of the North’s conventional artillery pieces. For America, the possibility of a nuclear attack on one of its garrisons in East Asia, or even on an American city. And don’t forget the danger of an armed confrontation between America and China, the North’s neighbour and grudging ally. It seems distasteful to mention the economic effects of another Korean war, but they would of course be awful, too.
如果又一场朝鲜战争爆发，会是什么样
最危险的不是一方突然想把另一方直接干趴下，而是双方误判彼此，冲突螺旋般升级最终导致一场没人想要的灾难。我们这周的简报已经逐步指出，美国和朝鲜可能会犯下大错导致核战争的发生。简报也列出了一些可能的后果：对于朝鲜来说，政权倒台，成千上万的民众死亡。对于韩国来说，首尔，这座拥有一千万人口，并在朝鲜1000门常规火炮射程范围之内的城市被摧毁。对于美国来说，一个东亚地区的军事基地，甚至美国本土的一座城市可能会遭受核攻击。同时别忘了美国和中国军事对峙的危险，毕竟中国算是朝鲜的邻居和半个盟友。我们不愿意谈论另一场朝鲜战争会对经济造成的影响，但不用说，也知道很可怕
President Donald Trump has vowed to stop North Korea from perfecting a nuclear warhead that could threaten the American mainland, tweeting that “it won’t happen!” Some pundits suggest shooting down future test missiles on the launchpad or, improbably, in the air. Others suggest using force to overthrow the regime or pre-emptive strikes to destroy Mr Kim’s nuclear arsenal before he has a chance to use it.
川普总统已经明确表示， 要阻止朝鲜完善能够威胁美国的核打击能力，并在Twitter上说“绝不会让它发生”。一些专家建议，将来把发射台上，或者说有可能的话，把已经飞上天的测试导弹给打下来。还有人建议动用武装力量颠覆政权，或是先发制人，在三胖能够使用之前把他的核武器库摧毁
Yet it is just this sort of military action that risks a ruinous escalation. Mr Kim’s bombs and missile-launchers are scattered and well hidden. America’s armed forces, for all their might, cannot reliably neutralise the North Korean nuclear threat before Mr Kim has a chance to retaliate. The task would be difficult even if the Pentagon had good intelligence about North Korea; it does not. The only justification for a pre-emptive strike would be to prevent an imminent nuclear attack on America or one of its allies.
正是这种军事行动会带来事态破坏性升级的危险。三胖的炸弹和导弹发射器被分散部署，而且隐藏的很好。美国的武装力量没有办法确切保证，能够在三胖有机会打击报复之前消除朝鲜的核威胁。这项任务即便在五角大楼拥有很好的朝鲜情报时也很困难，更不用说还没有。这种先发打击的唯一理由就是阻止美国或其盟国遭受核打击
Can Mr Kim be cajoled or bribed into giving up his nuclear ambitions? It is worth trying, but has little chance of success. In 1994 President Bill Clinton secured a deal whereby Kim Jong Il (the current despot’s father) agreed to stop producing the raw material for nuclear bombs in return for a huge injection of aid. Kim took the money and technical help, but immediately started cheating. Another deal in 2005 failed, for the same reason. The younger Kim, like his father, sees nuclear weapons as the only way to guarantee the survival of his regime. It is hard to imagine circumstances in which he would voluntarily give up what he calls his “treasured sword of justice”.
三胖能被劝诱或者收买，主动放弃他的核子野心么？值得一试，但是希望渺茫。1994年的时候克林顿和金二胖（三胖的爹）签了个协议，朝鲜停止生产核武器原料，来换取大量的援助。二胖拿了资金和技术援助，却转头翻脸不认人。2005年另一个协议也失败了，也是一样的原因。年轻的三胖，跟他爹一样，都把核武器看作是维护政权的唯一手段。很难想象一种可能，会让他自愿放弃这把他所谓“宝贵的正义之剑”
If military action is reckless and diplomacy insufficient, the only remaining option is to deter and contain Mr Kim. Mr Trump should make clear—in a scripted speech, not a tweet or via his secretary of state—that America is not about to start a war, nuclear or conventional. However, he should reaffirm that a nuclear attack by North Korea on America or one of its allies will immediately be matched. Mr Kim cares about his own skin. He enjoys the life of a dissolute deity, living in a palace and with the power to kill or bed any of his subjects. If he were to unleash a nuclear weapon, he would lose his luxuries and his life. So would his cronies. That means they can be deterred.
如果军事行动过于鲁莽而外交又过于乏力,唯一剩下的选择只有威慑和竭制三胖。川普总统应该以公开演讲的形式，不是发Twitter或者让外交部代言昭告天下：美国不会主动发起战争，无论是常规战还是核战。但一旦美国或其盟国遭受到朝鲜的核打击，将会立即还以颜色。三胖很是关心自己，他很享受自己那既放荡，又跟神一般的生活。深居宫殿之内，想杀谁就杀谁，想睡谁就睡谁。如果他放了核弹出去，他那条小命和奢侈的生活就全都没了，而且会波及到他的亲信，所以从这个角度来说，他们是可以被威慑的。
To contain Mr Kim, America and its allies should apply pressure that cannot be misconstrued as a declaration of war. They should ramp up economic sanctions not only against the North Korean regime but also against the Chinese companies that trade with it or handle its money. America should formally extend its nuclear guarantee to South Korea and Japan, and boost the missile defences that protect both countries. This would help ensure that they do not build nuclear weapons of their own. America should convince the South Koreans, who will suffer greatly if war breaks out, that it will not act without consulting them. China is fed up with the Kim regime, but fears that if it were to collapse, a reunified Korea would mean American troops on China’s border. Mr Trump’s team should guarantee that this will not happen, and try to persuade China that in the long run it is better off with a united, prosperous neighbour than a poor, violent and unpredictable one.
要竭制三胖，美国和其同盟国需要对其施加压力，同时注意不能被误读为开战的讯号。他们应该加大经济制裁的力度，除朝鲜之外，同时制裁那些和朝鲜有贸易或经济往来的中国公司。美国应该正式向日本和韩国提供核保障，加强导弹防御系统对两国实施保护。这也有助于确保两国不会自己制造核武器。一旦开战，韩国会损失巨大，所以美国应当说服韩国在向美国咨询之前不要擅自行动。中国也很烦三胖的政权，但同时担心一旦三胖倒台，一个统一的韩国就意味着美国的军队会出现在中国的边境线上。川普的团队应当保证这不会发生，并试着说服中国从长远来看，有个团结，繁荣的邻居比一个贫穷，暴力和不可预测的邻居强得多
Everyone stay calm
All the options for dealing with the North are bad. Although America should not recognise it as a legitimate nuclear power, it must base its policy on the reality that it is already an illegitimate one. Mr Kim may gamble that his nukes give him the freedom to behave more provocatively, perhaps sponsoring terrorism in the South. He may also sell weapons to other cruel regimes or terrorist groups. The world must do what it can to thwart such plots, though some will doubtless succeed.
大家保持冷静
和朝鲜打交道的选项没一个是好的，虽说美国不应该把他作为合法的核力量对待，但政策必须以基于这个非法力量已经存在的基础之上。三胖有可能会赌核武器会给他更大的空间来施展挑衅行为，比如说在韩国资助恐怖分子。他也有可能把武器卖给其他的恐怖组织或是政权。整个世界必须尽全力阻止此类阴谋，尽管其中有些必定会得手
It is worth recalling that America has been here before. When Stalin and Mao were building their first atom bombs, some in the West urged pre-emptive strikes to stop them. Happily, cooler heads prevailed. Since then, the logic of deterrence has ensured that these terrible weapons have never been used. Some day, perhaps by coup or popular uprising, North Koreans will be rid of their repulsive ruler, and the peninsula will reunite as a democracy, like Germany. Until then, the world must keep calm and contain Mr Kim.
值得回忆的是美国曾经这么干过一次。当年斯大林和毛泽东造他们的第一颗原子弹的时候，西方一些人曾怂恿要先发制人，阻止他们。幸运的是，冷静的头脑占了上风。自那以后，威慑的逻辑保证了这些恐怖的武器从没被使用过。有一天，也许是政变，也许是人民起义。朝鲜将会把他们这个讨人厌的统治者赶下台，整个朝鲜半岛将会再次统一成一个民主国家，就像德国一样。在那之前，世界必须保持冷静并竭制这个胖子
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