我国长期控制生育,其理论依据是马尔萨斯人口论,认为人多了不好。随着人口老龄化程度不断加深,很多人开始反思。现在越来越多的人认识到,人少了同样不好。
Is a growing population good or bad?
by Jay L. Zagorsky
The first economist to suggest there were limits to how many inhabitants a country could support was Thomas Malthus, who wrote his most famous work, "An Essay on the Principle of Population," in 1798.
economist /ɪˈkɒnəmɪst/ n. 经济学家(由economy加上表示人的后缀-ist)
suggest /səˈdʒest/ v. 提出
inhabitant /ɪnˈhæbɪt(ə)nt/ n. 居民、居住者
essay /ˈeseɪ/ n. 论文、短文
principle /ˈprɪnsəp(ə)l/ n. 原理
Malthus believed that each country had a "carrying capacity," a maximum number of people it can support. When the population is above its carrying capacity, it is full. Carrying capacity is based on environmental factors, such as the amount of food resources that can be grown on land or harvested from the sea.
capacity /kəˈpæsəti/ n. 容量(carrying capacity就是承载量)
maximum /ˈmæksɪməm/ adj. 最大的
based /beɪst/ on 基于
environmental /ɪnˌvaɪr(ə)nˈment(ə)l/ adj. 环境的(由environment加后缀-al变成形容词)
factor /ˈfæktə(r)/ n. 因素
resource /ˈriːsɔːs/ n. 资源
harvest /ˈhɑːvɪst/ v. 收割(庄稼)、捕获(动物)
If Malthus were alive today, he would point out there is a fixed amount of oil in the Earth and a fixed amount of farmland to grow crops. Sooner or later the oil will run out, and if population grows without bounds, there will not be enough food to feed everyone.
point out 指出、说明
fixed /fɪkst/ adj. 固定的
farmland /ˈfɑːmlænd/ n. 农田、耕地(由farm和land组成)
run out 用完
bound /baʊnd/ n. 限制、界限
Malthus' predictions about what happens after a country rises above its carrying capacity were dire: Disease, famine and wars break out to bring the population back down to a sustainable level. In simple terms, Malthus' theory was that the population in a country cannot grow indefinitely. Death will constrain it.
prediction /prɪˈdɪkʃ(ə)n/ n. 预测(由predict加后缀-ion变成名词)
dire /daɪə(r)/ adj. 悲惨的
famine /ˈfæmɪn/ n. 饥荒、饥馑
break out 爆发
sustainable /səˈsteɪnəb(ə)l/ adj. 可持续发展的(由sustain加后缀-able变成形容词)
level /ˈlev(ə)l/ n. 水平、数量
term /tɜːm/ n. 词语(in simple terms意思是简单来说)
theory /ˈθɪəri/ n. 理论
indefinitely /ɪnˈdefɪnətli/ adv. 无限地
constrain /kənˈstreɪn/ v. 控制、限制
Another doomsayer, though not an economist, is author Jared Diamond, whose popular book "Collapse" showed numerous times in history when population growth led to environmental damage that destroyed a society. The damage occurred because ever-increasing population forced people to move onto marginal or unsafe lands.
doomsayer /ˈduːmseɪə(r)/ n. 灾难预言家
collapse /kəˈlæps/ n. 崩溃
numerous /ˈnjuːmərəs/ adj. 许多、很多
growth /ɡrəʊθ/ n. 增长
lead to 导致
destroy /dɪˈstrɔɪ/ v. 摧毁、毁灭
occur /əˈkɜː(r)/ v. 发生
ever /ˈevə(r)/ adv. 一直
force /fɔːs/ v. 迫使
marginal /ˈmɑːdʒɪn(ə)l/ adj. 贫瘠的
unsafe /ʌnˈseɪf/ adj. 不安全的(由safe加上表示否定的前缀un-)
Supporters of Diamond's ideas point out the problems that occur as an ever-growing population builds homes, businesses and farms in flood zones and seeks shelter in places like the sides of active volcanoes.
supporter /səˈpɔːtə(r)/ n. 支持者(由support加上表示人的后缀-er)
seek /siːk/ v. 寻求
shelter /ˈʃeltə(r)/ n. 庇护所、临时住所
volcano /vɒlˈkeɪnəʊ/ n. 火山
Many other economists hold the opposite view and argue population growth fosters economic progress, which means an ever-growing amount of goods and services.
opposite /ˈɒpəzɪt/ adj. 相反的
argue /ˈɑːɡjuː/ v. 极力主张
foster /ˈfɒstə(r)/ v. 培养、促进
economic /ˌekəˈnɒmɪk/ adj. 经济的(由economy加后缀-ic变成形容词)
progress /ˈprəʊɡres/ n. 进步
service /ˈsɜːvɪs/ n. 服务
Some of the early work was done in the 1990s by the late Julian Simon. He stressed the idea that a growing population is advantageous because it means more researchers, inventors, thinkers, writers and creative people contributing to economic growth.
late /leɪt/ adj. 已故的
stress /stres/ v. 强调
advantageous /ˌædvænˈteɪdʒəs/ adj. 有利的、有好处的(由advantage加后缀-ous变成形容词)
researcher /rɪˈsɜːtʃə(r)/ n. 研究者(由research加上表示人的后缀-er)
inventor /ɪnˈventə(r)/ n. 发明家(由invent加上表示人的后缀-or)
thinker /ˈθɪŋkə(r)/ n. 思想家(由think加上表示人的后缀-er)
creative /kriːˈeɪtɪv/ adj. 有创造力的(由create加后缀-ive变成形容词)
contribute /kənˈtrɪbjuːt/ v. 做贡献
These kinds of ideas were expanded by people like Harvard development economist Michael Kremer, who suggested it takes a critical mass of people for advanced societies to develop. Societies with high population densities are the most dynamic and most productive, while societies with low densities are not.
expand /ɪkˈspænd/ v. 扩充、扩展
Harvard /ˈhɑːvəd/ 指哈佛大学
critical /ˈkrɪtɪk(ə)l/ adj. 至关重要的
mass /mæs/ n. 大量
density /ˈdensɪti/ n. 密度(由dense加后缀-ity变成名词)
dynamic /daɪˈnæmɪk/ adj. 充满活力的
productive /prəˈdʌktɪv/ adj. 多产的(由product加后缀-ive变成形容词)
The reason why large populations are good is straightforward. Few ideas come from people who are isolated. Numerous people who are together in close proximity produce more ideas because they learn from each other and compete.
straightforward /ˌstreɪtˈfɔːwəd/ adj. 简单易懂的
isolate /ˈaɪsəleɪt/ v. 孤立、隔绝
proximity /prɒkˈsɪməti/ n. 邻近、相邻
compete /kəmˈpiːt/ v. 竞争
Proponents of population growth point out most of the new ideas and products come from cities like New York, London and Paris. The places brimming with ideas are dense, crowded major urban centers teeming with people. These major cities act as a magnet for people with talent who are then able to thrive.
proponent /prəˈpəʊnənt/ n. 倡导者、支持者
brim /brɪm/ v. 充满
dense /dens/ adj. 密集的
major /ˈmeɪdʒə(r)/ adj. 主要的
urban /ˈɜːb(ə)n/ adj. 城市的
teem /tim/ with something 随处可见某物、全是某物
magnet /ˈmæɡnət/ n. 磁铁
talent /ˈtæl(ə)nt/ n. 才能、才华
thrive /θraɪv/ v. 繁荣、蓬勃发展
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