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读Geopolitical Alpha(七)——Politics

读Geopolitical Alpha(七)——Politics

作者: 刘东利2020 | 来源:发表于2022-05-10 17:58 被阅读0次

    倒数第二部分是MVT in a Vote-less Nation,自己体会吧。作者上了一张图:

    中等收入陷阱的背后,到底是什么呢?

    Since 2017, Chinese policymakers have undertaken a set of painful structural reforms. At a time when the developed world is moving toward the Buenos Aires Consensus – a fancy way of saying populism – Beijing has enacted financial and macroprudential reforms that constrain growth.

    作者说:

    However, at the time of writing, they have remained stubbornly committed to ensuring that real estate prices do not rise.

    为什么?如果不这么做:

    it would create a longer-term political risk.

    从图中来看,我兔现在的位置是:

    如何看待?

    While to the global West, political centralization and economic liberalization are unpalatable – and even illogical – this combination is familiar to academia. Samuel Huntington’s 1968 Political Order in Changing Societies warns against too-rapid political liberalization amid economic and social modernity because it could lead to collapse.

    作者的大胆预测,MVT中的中产阶级诉求,会带来:

    It will retreat inward and back off from its competition with the US.

    结论,我兔的首要限制因素是如何逃脱拉美化的中等收入陷阱,千万不要威逼过于急迫:

    If the US pushes Beijing too hard on trade and the economy, it will threaten the primary directive for China: escaping the middle-income trap. And that is when Beijing would have to respond with aggression.

    最后的小节是本章总结,不赘述。

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