倒数第二部分是MVT in a Vote-less Nation,自己体会吧。作者上了一张图:
中等收入陷阱的背后,到底是什么呢?
Since 2017, Chinese policymakers have undertaken a set of painful structural reforms. At a time when the developed world is moving toward the Buenos Aires Consensus – a fancy way of saying populism – Beijing has enacted financial and macroprudential reforms that constrain growth.
作者说:
However, at the time of writing, they have remained stubbornly committed to ensuring that real estate prices do not rise.
为什么?如果不这么做:
it would create a longer-term political risk.
从图中来看,我兔现在的位置是:
如何看待?
While to the global West, political centralization and economic liberalization are unpalatable – and even illogical – this combination is familiar to academia. Samuel Huntington’s 1968 Political Order in Changing Societies warns against too-rapid political liberalization amid economic and social modernity because it could lead to collapse.
作者的大胆预测,MVT中的中产阶级诉求,会带来:
It will retreat inward and back off from its competition with the US.
结论,我兔的首要限制因素是如何逃脱拉美化的中等收入陷阱,千万不要威逼过于急迫:
If the US pushes Beijing too hard on trade and the economy, it will threaten the primary directive for China: escaping the middle-income trap. And that is when Beijing would have to respond with aggression.
最后的小节是本章总结,不赘述。
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