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剑拔弩张:美伊局势何去何从?

剑拔弩张:美伊局势何去何从?

作者: f66522a6d471 | 来源:发表于2019-06-26 09:55 被阅读0次

Is There Still a Deal to Be Done with Iran?

① The United States stepped right 恰好up to the brink of striking 在打击的边缘Iran over 因为a downed American drone被击落的美国无人机—and then abruptly stepped back.

② Now that the two countries have traveled so far down the road to war, is there any realistic off-ramp 匝道to the negotiations?

③ On the surface, that path is nowhere to be found.

④ Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s position is that he “will consider further negotiations” only when the United States resumes 中断后)重新开始complying with 遵守the terms of the nuclear deal.

⑤ But for now 当下the Trump administration appears wholly focused on squeezing Iran economically, deterring 遏制Iranian aggression, and preparing for a possible military conflict—not laying the groundwork for serious negotiations.

It’s unlikely 是不可能的Iran’s leaders want a full-fledged成熟的,全面的;羽翼丰满的 military 全面战争confrontation with冲突the United States, but they do want to extract a cost 付出代价from the United States for the sanctions it has reimposed.

⑦ Jake Sullivan, a former Iran negotiator in the Obama administration, thinks it’s at least conceivable能够想象得到的 they could talk to each other. “We have a very wide distribution of possible outcomes多种可能的结果—from actual war to sitting at the table soon.”

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