Misconception #1
Forecast is not accurate, never! Get your supply chain agile is the right way.
Forecast is not accuracy, but 1% or 99% accuracy makes big difference. Your goal is not 100% accurate, but be more accurate than others, that is tremendous difference. More importantly, Cost behind any agility improvement, you need to pay more to get your supply chain agility. Therefore, improve forecast accuracy is a cost effective way, right?
Misconception #2
If Not possible to get POS data, no way to improve forecast accuracy!
This is also a famous excuse for many company to give up the demand management, even they can get the POS data, they still take it as a excuse- the data might not accurate, therefore we can not use it. This leads to the vicious cycle. The Truth is "how accurate it can be" and "data mine more, helps more". No matter do you have POS data or not, or do you think it is accurate or not. "Forecast" is always there, never leave for forsake.
Misconception #3
Market behavior is not predictable, you can never interrupt.
This thinking is even more radicalness than #2. There is a famous white appliance company, who let their 1st level distributor to do forecast, and emphasis no interruption. Then these distributors let the 2nd level distributor to do forecast...etc. if so, should we ask the whole nation people do help the white appliance company to do forecast? If this can happen, that is great, but therefore sales and marketing department can be dismissed. Our market expertise can not agree with this statement at all: Market behavior can be predicted, even we can guide the market behavior to the way we want.
Misconception #4
Who sales, who forecast!
Sounds quite reasonable, delegate the authority to lower level, make it more closer to the market. If you want to try, including long term goal setting, of course you can give the authority to upfront team. but they are not decision maker, they are contributors! Forecast include Information Collection, Analysis and Decision Making. The best way is to do forecast by someone, who have a broader view, rational and systematical thinking , completed information of the organization. Sales can be contributor, but not the person can be accountable.
Misconception #5
No need to get a full time employee for Forcasting
When we comment one company nobody is doing forecasting, people defense. they say everyone involves in forecasting, sales is doing it, distributor manager is doing it, order team is adjusting, management and supply chain leaders are doing as well. How can you say no one is doing forecast? The truth is, if everyone accountable, means no-one accountable!
Everyone can buy things, but not everyone can be a purchaser; Everyone can cook, but not everyone can be chef. This is a role integrated data analysis, communication, decision making, quite challenge! It is not a General Manager(GM) role, but somethings surpass.
Misconception #6
Forecast is only relevant to Demand Team
If you accept we need a full-time person or department to manage forecast, are you also thinking you can fully delegate to this person or department to do forecast. if you think so, you step in another miss conception! Even we have a professional demand team. but not means sales, marketing department are nothing do do with forecast. Because demand is a "P" role (P: process owner), demand team is the process owner, and sales, marketing are the contributor, they have to and must to be involved and be acceptable!
Misconception #7
Forecast is all about a perfect model
If we take forecast as a pure technical issue, if so, then why not finding 10 math or statistics PHD! Oh, no, if it is only a math problem, the Phd must already find the solution, you just need to buy it. But it is not in reality, it is the combination of science and art, It is a independent management area. Model or tools can help you to improve effectiveness and facilitate decision. But the management process decides your quality of forecast, not the model!
Misconception #8
Forecast is all about accuracy
We all love to use accuracy to judge forecast quality, while expertise use deviation to judge. Because it is the 360 degree assessment, and "accuracy" is only one dimension. Accuracy is a absolute %, not be able to reflect direction, range, and velocity, and it is far more away to reflect dissociation. But deviation can reflect these. Therefore, if you want to be a expertise in demand, please talk more deviation than accuracy.
Misconception #9
The purpose of forecast is to make it more accurate
If you are a demand manager with this view. you can hardly survive. Because your goal and the company's goal can not match. At the same time you will goes to the opposite side of sales department. Then do you mean we have to base on sales target to decompose the data to different level of targets? Absolutely not! What we want you to do is: Reveal the difference of forecast and goal setting bravely , and provide suggestion and risk assessment professionally!
Misconception #10
If short term forecast is not accurate, No way to get long term better.
This sounds like a truth, therefore lots company give up mid-long term forecast, but only do 3 month forecast. They think it wasting effort to do it and feels great about their smart choice. Then let me ask you to do a choice question, Option A: SKU level, measure M-3 accuracy, which means measure Dec actual performance by Sep version forecast. Option B: Product family level, measure M-12 accuracy, which means measure Dec actual performance by Jan version forecast. Which one you think will be a easy option to get accuracy? An experience demand manager always choose option B! Keep in mind, when you do mid-long term forecast, what's your purpose? It is capacity and capability planning! Accuracy have lots of dimensions, mid-long term forecast is only need to be accurate by product family level or above! And the "law of great numbers" tells us, if we measure more upper level, more accurate always.
原文链接：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZGo_HKEWl4BHQcFsveqeuA
昨晚微信朋友圈看到一篇不错的文章，特别想分享给国外的工作小伙伴，可惜是中文。所以就自己蹩脚尝试翻译了一下，求拍砖。
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