Blue-sky thinking天马行空的想象

Blue-sky thinking天马行空的想象

https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/272085271?from=groupmessage

Parts of the digital economy are competitive. Loot at the cloud.The term "big tech" is often used as shorthand to describe the small group of digital firms that tower over the 21st-century economy. Together, they make up over a fifth of America's stockmarket. But behind that phrase a lot is going on. As business lines have become monopolised, it has become commonplace to complain that tech firms are offering consumers a toxic deal. But in a growing number of areas the picture is healthier. 

"科技巨头"一词经常被用来形容21世纪数字经济中崛起的少数几个公司的简称。它们一共占领了超五分之一的美股市值。但很多改变正在发生。随着一些业务线已经形成垄断，埋怨科技公司为消费者提供有毒服务已变得司空见惯。但在另外一些业务线上，前景看起来更健康。

The largest tech companies have expanded into a dizzying range of industries. Amazon faces credible e-commerce rivals in the form of Walmart and Shopify. Video-streaming is a fight for supremacy between half a dozen firms. And cloud computing has become a fiercely contested market, too, as our analysis of the adventures of Microsoft shows. Its experience is a reminder of the benign power of competition--and of how governments should be surgical about taming tech. 

大的科技公司的业务条线扩展令人眼花缭乱。亚马逊正面临沃尔玛和Shopify等强大对手的挑战。六七家公司也在争夺流视频的行业霸主地位。当我们分析微软最近在云计算领域的投入时，发现云计算市场似乎也已成为一片红海。它的经验提醒人们竞争的良性力量和政府应该采取什么手段来驯服科技行业。

Cloud computing took off about 15 years ago, as businesses began to outsource their web-hosting, data centres, core computer systems and many applications to a few big providers, particularly the pioneer AWS, run by Amazon. The pandemic has shown just how critical the cloud has become. Many of the economy's main functions depend on it, including a wide range of e-commerce sites and applications that let you work from home. The scale of this activity is huge; approaching 10% of all technology spending is on the cloud. So are the sums of money being invested. Perhaps $40bn is being ploughed this year into data centres and other physical gear by AWS and others. 

云计算大约在15年前兴起，当企业开始将他们的虚拟主机、数据中心、核心计算机系统和许多应用程序外包给一些大的供应商，特别是亚马逊运营的拓荒者AWS。疫情证明云计算已经变得特别关键。许多经济的主要功能都依赖于它，包括各种电子商务网站和让你在家工作的app。投入是巨大的；大科技公司支出的10%是在云计算上的。投资的金额也是如此，今年AWS和其他公司在数据中心和其他物理设备上投入了约400亿美元。

The cloud brings obvious benefits. The firms using it replace capital expenditure on rickety bespoke IT with a variable payment for a service that can easily expand its capacity as needed. That is one reason firms such as Zoom have been able to grow so fast during the lockdown. Having many users for each piece of infrastructure means they are put to work more efficiently. 

云计算有明显的好处。使用云计算的公司用可变的服务费用取代了在不可靠的定制信息技术上的大量资本支出，而这种服务可以根据需要轻松地扩大容量。这也是Zoom等公司能够在封锁期间快速发展的原因之一。每一个基础设施都有很多用户，意味着他们可以更高效地投入工作。

The cloud has also been seen as an example of the internet's fragmentation. Alibaba's and Tencent's cloud arms dominate in China and are making some inroads elsewhere in Asia. Europe is so anxious about American firms that it has launched a state-backed rival, called Gaia-X. Businesses in poor countries may struggle for access to the cloud, slowing their development. 

云计算也被视为互联网碎片化的一个例子。阿里巴巴和腾讯的云服务器在中国占主导地位，并开始进驻亚洲其他市场。欧洲很担心美国企业，以至于它推出了一个国家支持的竞争对手，名为Gaia-X。贫穷国家的企业难以进入云计算领域，减缓其发展速度。

The biggest fear has been of a cloud monopoly. Here the news is encouraging. aws remains the cloud's biggest firm, but Microsoft, the original antitrust bad boy, is putting up a fierce fight with its own service, Azure, and hopes to get more of its Office and Windows customers to use it for the cloud, too.

最担心的是云计算垄断。令人欣慰的是，AWS仍然是云计算最大的公司，但原来那个反垄断坏孩子微软，正在用自己的服务Azure进行激烈的斗争，并希望让更多的Office和Windows客户也使用它的云服务。

Alphabet is also putting its cloud forward. On October 8th IBM said it would spin off part of its services business to focus on the "hybrid-cloud", which marries old-fashioned on-site work with the cloud. Likewise Oracle's proposed bid for TikTok, a social-media firm, is in part an effort to secure an anchor-customer for its nascent cloud operation. Regulators need to be vigilant to ensure that cloud firms are not abusing other companies' data, erecting unfair barriers to entry or misusing their dominance in other businesses to get ahead. But broadly, the boom means more choice and keener prices. 

谷歌母公司也在推进云计算。10月8日，IBM表示将剥离部分服务业务，专注于 "混合云"——传统的现场工作与云计算的结合。同样，甲骨文拟竞购社交媒体公司TikTok，部分是为了获得其新生云业务的主力客户。监管机构需要保持警惕，确保云计算公司不会滥用其他公司的数据，设置不公平的进入壁垒，或滥用其在其他业务中的主导地位以获得发展。但从广义上讲，这股热潮意味着更多的选择和更激烈的价格。

This rivalry also offers a signal to governments. Treating big tech as a monopolistic monolith does not make sense when some markets are competitive. Nor does banning tech firms from entering adjacent new markets--as a recent congressional report proposed. Better for governments to ensure that users have control over their data, and then vigorously tackle the areas like search and social media where monopolies have taken hold. If the main source of competition for big tech firms ends up being other big tech firms, so be it.

这种竞争也给政府提供了一个信号。当一些市场竞争激烈时，将大科技视为垄断个体是没有意义的。禁止科技公司进入相邻的新市场也没有意义--就像最近一份国会报告提出的那样。对政府来说，更好的做法是确保用户对其数据的控制权，然后积极解决搜索和社交媒体等已经垄断的领域。如果大科技公司的主要竞争来源最终是其他大科技公司，那就顺其自然吧。