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巴菲特1970年二月信(四)。2024-12-25

巴菲特1970年二月信(四)。2024-12-25

作者: 友才927 | 来源:发表于2024-12-24 21:21 被阅读0次

英文早读第162篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。

Marketability
市场性

Tax-free bonds are materially different from common stocks or corporate bonds in that there are literally hundreds of thousands of issues, with the great majority having very few holders. This substantially inhibits the development of close, active markets. Whenever the City of New York or Philadelphia wants to raise money it sells perhaps twenty, thirty of forty non-identical securities, since it will offer an issue with that many different maturities. A 6% bond of New York coming due in 1980 is a different animal from a 6% bond of New York coming due in 1981. One cannot be exchanged for the other, and a seller has to find a buyer for the specific item he holds. When you consider that New York may offer bonds several times a year, it is easy to see why just this one city may have somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,000 issues outstanding. Grand Island, Nebraska may have 75 issues outstanding. The average amount of each issue might be 100,000 and the average number of holders may be six or eight per issue. Thus, it is absolutely impossible to have quoted markets at all times for all issues and spreads between bids and offers may be very wide. You can't set forth in the morning to buy a specific Grand Island issue of your choosing. It may not be offered at any price, anywhere, and if you do find one seller, there is no reason why he has to be realistic compared to other offerings of similar quality. On the other hand, there are single issues such as those of the Ohio Turnpike, Illinois Turnpike, etc. that amount to 200 million or more and have thousands of bondholders owning a single entirely homogeneous and interchangeable issue. Obviously, here you get a high degree of marketability.
免税债券和一般股票或公司债券有实质性不同,他们真正发行种类多达数十万种,且绝大部分只有几个持有者。这很大程度上约束了活跃紧密的市场发展。无论什么时候纽约市或者费城需要募集资金时他或许会出手20,30或者40个不一样的证券,他们会提供有不同期限的发发行。1980年到期6%收益的纽约债券和1981年到期6%收益的纽约债券是不同的。一个不能被交换为另外一个,一个卖家需要寻找他持有的特定债券的买家。当你考虑到纽约或许一年会发行几次债券,就很容易看到为什么会有接近1000个发行的债券。内布拉斯加州的格兰岛或许有75支发行的债券。每支债券平均规模大约10万美金,每个债券的平均持有人大约6个或者8个。因此,绝对不可能在任何时间有对所有债权的报价,在出价和成交之间差异很大。你不能在早上设定去购买一个你选择的特定的格兰岛债券。他或许无人出售,如果你确实找到了一个卖家,他也没有理由参考其他同类债券提供报价。另一方面,有像俄亥俄公路债券,伊利诺伊公路债券等这类独立的债券,总额大约2亿美金或者更多,并且有数千债券持有人持有一个完全同类型可交换的债券。很明显,这类有更高的市场流通性。

My impression is that marketability is generally a function of the following three items, in descending order of importance:(1) the size of the particular issue;(2) the size of the issuer (a 100,000 issue of the State of Ohio will be more marketable than a 100,000 issue of Podunk, Ohio); and (3) the quality of the issuer. By far the most sales effort goes into the selling of new issues of bonds. An average of over 200 million per week of new issues comes up for sale, and the machinery of bond distribution is geared to get them sold, large or small. In my opinion, there is frequently insufficient differential in yield at time of issue for the marketability differences that will exist once the initial sales push is terminated. We have frequently run into markets in bonds where the spread between bid and asked prices may ge to 15%. There is no need to buy bonds with the potential for such grotesque markets (although the profit spread to the dealer who originally offers them is frequently wider than on more marketable bonds) and we will not be buying them for you. The bonds we expect to buy will usually tend to have spreads (reflecting the difference between what you would pay net for such bonds on purchase and receive net on sale at the same point in time) of from 2% to 5%. Such a spread would be devastating if you attempted to trade in such bonds, but I don't believe it should be a deterrent for a long-term investor. The real necessity is to stay away from bonds of very limited marketability - which frequently are the type local bond dealers have the greatest moneytary incentive to push.
我的印象是市场性是以下3个项目综合的结果,按重要性降序是:(1)指定债券的规模;(2)发行者的规模(俄亥俄州的10万美金债券比俄亥俄波多克的10万美金债券更有流通性);(3)发行者的质量。到目前位置大部分销售努力于出售新发行债券。每周约有2亿美金新发行债券出售,债券分发机制是由他们出售驱动,无论规模大小。在我看来,通常市场流通性的区别程度在发行时就很大差别,并且在首次销售推荐时就存在。我们将此进入那些售价和要价差别在15%的证券。没有必要去购买这些潜在畸形的市场(尽管提供给初始交易者的利润通常比那些更流通证券要高),我们也不会为你购买他们。我们希望购买的债券通常是差别从2%到5%之间的(反映出你希望购买时支付给这些债券的净值和在同一时间点出售收到的净值差异)。这个差异将会在你试图交易这类股票时带来灾难,但是我不相信他会对长期投资者构成困扰。真正必要的是避开那些有很低流通性的证券——通常这类本地债券撮合商有最强利益驱动性去推。

35.marketability:市场性;可销售性;可流通性
36.literally:按字面;字面上;真正地;确实地
37.inhibit:抑制;组织;约束
38.identical:完全相同的;相同的;同一的
39.maturity:成熟;到期;成年
40.quoted:报价;引用;出价;开价
41.homogeneous:同种类的;由相同类型组成的
42.interchangeable:可互换的;可交换的
43.descend:下降;下来;降临
44.machinery:机械;体制;机构;组织
45.grotesque:怪诞的;奇形怪状的;荒唐的
46.devastate:摧毁;毁灭;彻底破坏
47.deterrent:威慑因素;遏制力
48.monetary:货币的;钱的
49.incentive:激励;诱因;动机

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