笑傲牛熊选股研究：趋势是你的朋友-Trading with th

我很早以前就认识到，股市从来都不是平淡无奇的。它是为愚弄大多数人、大多数时间而设计的。股市上的两种主要的情绪-希望和恐惧，希望往往是因为贪婪而产生的。而恐惧往往是因为无知而产生的。我认为，控制不住自己的情绪是投机者真正的死敌，希望、恐惧和贪婪总是存在的，就藏在我们的心里、在市场外面等着、等着跳进市场来表现，等着机会大赚一把。希望对于人类的生存是至关重要的。但希望与无知、贪婪、恐惧和扭曲的理智是一样的。希望掩盖了事实，而股市只认事实。结果是客观的，是最终的，就像自然一样，是不会改变的。另外，还要永远记住，你能赢一场赛马，但你不能赢所有的赛马。你能在一只股票上赚钱，但你不会在任何时候都能从华尔街上赚到钱，任何人都不能。

-----利弗莫尔

My success as a stock trader relies on a combination of science and art.Mechanical signals backed by scientific research and intuitive feel are both important tools. In the stock market, few things are purely black or white.To succeed, an astute stock trader must learn to read between the lines and decipher and make decisions often on the basis of incomplete information. There are, however, certain characteristics that are not ambiguous or even open for interpretation. I call them non-negotiable criteria.

我的成功建立在对科学和艺术有机组合的基础之上。基于科学研究和主观直觉的机械信号都是很重要的工具。在股市中，几乎没有绝对的正确与错误。若要成功，精明的交易者学会解读市场、对行情进行解码翻译，学会在市场给出的不算完整的信息基础上进行决策。但是，股市中还是有一些事情并非那么模棱两可。我把它们称作“不容讨价还价的标准”。

When I am screening for superperformance stocks, my initial filter is rooted in strict qualifying criteria that are based purely on a stock's technical action and is designed to align my purchase with the prevailing primary trend. Once this initial criterion is met, I run “overlay screens”and look at the company's fundamentals to narrow the remaining universe of candidates. Simply put, no matter how good a company looks fundamentally, certain technical standards must be met for it to qualify as a buy candidate.For example, I will never go long a stock that is trading below its declining 200-day moving average (assuming 200 days of trading exist). No matter how attractive the earnings per share, revenue growth, cash flow, or return on equity may be, I won't consider buying a stock that is in a long-term downtrend. Why? I want to see some interest in the stock, preferably from big institutional investors. I'm not interested in being the first one to the party, but I do want to make sure there's a party going on. The goal is to eliminate stocks that are not worth my time so that I can focus on contenders that have the best chance of being the next superperformers. Buying stocks in long-term downtrends will significantly lower your odds of owning a big winner. However, if you want to increase the odds, you should focus on stocks that are in a confirmed uptrend.

筛选强势股时 ，我的第一层过滤基于严格的筛选标准，这个标准纯粹基于股票的技术动作，旨在帮助我的股市操作与市场主趋势一致。一旦股票符合第一个标准 ，我就会进行下一步的“覆盖式筛选”，查看公司基本面情况，进一步收窄选股清单。简单来说，不论公司基本面看起来有多好 ，我的股票清单只保留满足我技术标准的那一部分。

例如，股价运行在处于下行的200日均线下方时，我绝不会做多。不论它的每股净利润、收入增速、现金流或者每股收益有多高，我都不会购买这类长期下行的股票。为什么要这样？我喜欢大家都感兴趣的股票，特别是机构比较感兴趣的。我无意率先进场，但我首先要确定是否有真正的机会存在。“覆盖式筛选”的作用就是，剔除那些不值得关注的股票 ，这样我就能专注于那些有机会成为下一支超级强势股的公司。买入长期下行中的股票，就会降低你拥有一支超级强势股的概率。如果你想增加拥有超级强势股的概率 ，就应该专注于那些确定处于上升趋势的股票。

Making Friends with the Trend

与趋势为友

Newton's first law states that an object in motion continues in motion. Things in motion possess inertia. An analogous property characterizes the stock market: a trend in force tends to remain in force until something occurs to change it. In other words, the trend is your friend. Although this adage is familiar, some investors may not fully appreciate its wisdom. I remember when I first grasped this concept in a meaningful way.

牛顿第一定律告诉我们，任何物体都要保持匀速直线运动或静止状态，直到外力迫使它改变运动状态为止。运动中的物体具有惯性。股市中也有相似的特点：发展中的趋势倾向于继续存在，除非有外力使之改变。换句话说，趋势是你的朋友。尽管这个说法如此熟悉，但就此常识而言，某些投资者也许还未能充分理解其中的智慧。我仍然记得，我第一次理解这句话时的场景，很有意义。

In 1990, I attended an investment conference in New York City. On the roster of market gurus and prognosticators were Ned Davis, founder of the well-known institutional research firm Ned Davis Research, and Marty Zweig, publisher of the popular market newsletter The Zweig Forecast; Marty coined the phrase “the trend is your friend.” One of the speakers who caught my attention not only for his colorful personality but also for his approach to the stock market was Stan Weinstein, who at the time published the stock market newsletter The Professional Tape Reader. Over lunch we had a chance to chat, and as Stan explained his method, he left me with a core concept that has stayed with me ever since.

20世纪90年代，我参加了在纽约举办的一次投资研讨会。与会的市场大师中，有奈德·戴维斯（Ned Davis），著名研究机构Ned Davis Research的创始人，还有马丁.茨威格（Marty Zweig），著名投资快讯The Zweig Forecast的出版人。最早提出“趋势是你的朋友”的人，就是马丁.茨威格。会上，一名演讲嘉宾特别引起了我的注意，不仅因为其人的人格魅力 ，还因为他研究股市的方法，他就是斯坦·威斯特恩（Stan Weinstein），当时著名的股市快讯“The Professional Tape Reader”的发行人。午餐时，我们有机会小聊，Stan 向我解释了他研究股市的方法，其中一些内容成为我保留至今的核心概念。

Stan's approach was based on a timeless principle of the four stages that stocks go through, placing importance on knowing what stage a stock is in at any specific time. The ideal scenario, as Stan saw it, was to buy stocks when they are coming out of the first stage and beginning to make a run higher, which is the second stage. Then the objective is to sell them as they approach the peak of the cycle, which is the beginning of the third stage. The fourth stage, as you might guess, is a full-fledged decline that you want to avoid or during which you go short. I had previously read about Stan's approach in his book Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets (McGraw-Hill, 1988). Although Stan wasn't the only one to use this type of four-stage approach, he was the first I heard speak about it. I went on to adopt this concept as part of my stock analysis.

Stan 的方法基于所有股票都要经历的四阶段理论，对于交易者而言，至关重要的是要了解并知道在特定时期个股所处的阶段。根据斯坦的方法理论，最理想的情况就是在股票刚刚走出第一阶段、进入第二阶段股价开始走高初期时进场买入。买入后，出场目标就在周期循环的高点，也就是第三阶段的初期。第四阶段，不难想到，股价将开始下行，此时交易者要避免买入操作，只适合做空操作。我曾经在斯坦的书《笑傲牛熊》 (McGraw-Hill, 1988)中读到过这种方法。尽管斯坦并不是唯一一个使用这种方法的人，但他是我听说过的第一人。我接受了这种方法，并将其纳入我的股票分析方法中。

【1】5日短线（20%资金）

【2】20日短线波段（10%资金）

【3】50日中线波段（5%资金）

【4】120日中长线波段（3%资金）

【5】300日年线波段（3%资金）

【6】600日长线（3%资金）

【7】价值投资持有4000天，看看啥结果

【7】价值投资持有8000天，看看啥结果（估计程序测试不支持了，结果与4000天一样）

程序化测试，还是有很多值得思考的地方。且行且努力吧！

半年多来的欧奈尔体系学习阶段，就告一段落，接下来的一年不断操练，交易人生，活出信仰！

最后看一下今日的选股结果。大盘摇摇欲坠江河日下，还能选出啥样的股票，哈哈！