Get ready to play "Guess the viral variant"
准备好加入“猜变异毒株”的游戏
2020 was the year of Covid lockdowns, 2021 the year of vaccines, and 2022 the year of worldwide reopening. 2023 will be the year of variant prediction.
2020 年是因为新冠封锁的一年，2021 是打（新冠）疫苗的一年，2022 年是世界范围内重新开放的一年。2023 年将会是预测变异株的一年。
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The first Covid variants of concern that were identified — from Alpha in the UK to Beta in South Africa — muddied the picture of where the pandemic would go next. What would the longer-term pattern of evolution look like?
从 Alpha 变异毒株在英国被发现，到 Beta 变异毒株在南非被发现，这些首批被列为新冠关切变异株的毒株，使这个流行病未来的发展形式变得更加模糊。这个病毒长期的发展模式将是怎样的？
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The picture became clearer in 2022, with the Omicron BA.1 variant causing large epidemics. This led to an accumulation of immunity within populations, followed by declining transmission, only for a new subvariant, BA.2, to emerge, against which this immunity was less effective.
在 2022 年，局势变得清楚了一些，奥密克戎 BA.1 变异株引起了大规模的疾病传播。这使得人们对其的免疫力越来越强，病毒的传播力也随之下降了，直到新的奥密克戎亚型株 BA.2 的出现，前者带来的免疫就没有那么有效了。
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Large epidemics followed and the cycle started again, with another cycle in mid-2022 when BA.5 emerged.
随着奥密克戎亚型株 BA.5 的出现，2022 年年中又开始了新的循环，出现了一大波感染情况，这个循环又开始了。
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If this evolutionary trajectory continues, we'll see this cyclic pattern in 2023 and beyond. It is a similar dynamic to the seasonal coronaviruses that have been causing epidemics for decades.
如果病毒的这种演变轨迹继续下去，我们可以在 2023 年及以后预见病毒的这种循环发展模式。这跟几十年来一直引起流行病的季节性冠状病毒（的发展节奏）是类似的。
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A 2021 study by researchers at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center found that coronaviruses gradually evolve over time, so prior immunity is less effective.
2021 年，福瑞德·哈金森癌症研究中心的研究人员在一项研究中发现，冠状病毒会随着时间的推移逐渐进化，所以之前的（毒株带来的）免疫力就不会那么有效了。
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In 2023, this prediction challenge will become routine for Covid. Some countries have already approved shots that are adapted for the Omicron BA.1 subvariant. But how well will these new vaccines match the variants that circulate further down the line?
2023 年，这个预测挑战将会成为面对新冠的常规操作。有些国家已经批准了基于奥密克戎亚型株 BA.1 研发的疫苗。但是，这些新疫苗和以后将会流行的变异毒株的匹配程度又如何呢？
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2023 will be the start of a long game of cat-and-mouse, pitting vaccine updates against an evolving virus. Solving this prediction question — and rolling out the resulting vaccines — will be one of the major health challenges of 2023.
2023 年将会是这场漫长猫鼠游戏的开始，这是一场疫苗更新与毒株的变异更新之间的持久仗。要解决这个预测问题——并推出对应的疫苗——将会成为 2023 年卫生健康方面主要的挑战之一。
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主编：啾笛、Sophia
品控：木子
审核：Sophia
重点词汇
variant
/ˈver.i.ənt/
n. 变种；变体；变形
相关词汇：vary（v. 变化、改变）
相关词汇：variation（n. 变化，差异）
例句：The potential of the variation of movement is so complicated.
搭配短语：spelling variants in British and American English
搭配短语：variants on the original drink
muddy
/ˈmʌd.i/
v. 使变得更复杂
相关词汇：mud（n. 泥巴）
词性拓展：muddy（adj. 沾满泥的；混乱的）
例句：Our shoes became muddy.（沾满泥的）
例句：The situation now is muddy.（混乱的）
搭配短语：muddy the waters / issues
搭配短语：muddy the picture of sth.
accumulation
/əˌkjuː.mjəˈleɪ.ʃən/
n. 积累，积聚
相关词汇：accumulate（v. 积累，积聚）
例句：By investing wisely she accumulated a fortune.
搭配短语：the accumulation of wealth
immunity
/ɪˈmjuː.nə.t̬i/
n. 免疫
相关词汇：immune（adj. （对某种疾病）有免疫力的）
例句：Once we've infected, we're immune for 6 months.
搭配短语：immune response / reaction
相关词汇：immune（adj. 不受影响的）
例句：I'm immune to others' criticism.
transmission
/trænsˈmɪʃ.ən/
n. 传递，传播
相关词汇：transmit（v. 传递，传播）
例句：Knowledge is transmitted from the teacher to students.
subvariant
/sʌbˈver.i.ənt/
n. 变异毒株的亚型株
词根词缀：sub-（分支）
trajectory
/trəˈdʒek.tɚ.i/
n. 事物的发展轨迹；（物体射向或抛向空中形成的）轨道，轨迹
搭配短语：the trajectory of a bullet
例句：My life seemed to be on an upward trajectory.
cyclic
/ˈsaɪ.klɪ.k/
adj. 循环的，周期的
相关词汇：cycle（n. 循环（周期））
同义词：cyclical（adj. 循环的，周期的）
例句：Economic activity often follows a cyclical pattern.
dynamic
/daɪˈnæm.ɪk/
n. 能够引起改变的动力
英文释义：a force or factor that controls or influences a process of growth, change, interaction, or activity
shot
/ʃɑːt/
n. 一次注射，一针；开枪，射击；射门
搭配短语：a flu shot
近义词：injection
circulate
/ˈsɝː.kjə.leɪt/
v. 循环
相关词汇：circle（n. 圆）
搭配短语：to come full circle（兜了一圈回到原地；循环）
例句：We've come full circle and dark-blue jeans are once again the height of style.
例句：Exercising helps to get the blood circulating through the muscles.（液体或者气体的循环、环流）
例句：Multiple respiratory viruses are circulating nationwide.（疾病的传播）
例句：Rumours began to circulate about his divorce.（信息的传播）
down the line
往后，以后
近义词：in the future
同义词：along the line
相关词汇：further down / along the line（更远的未来）
cat-and-mouse
/ˈkæt.ənd.ˈmaʊs/
n. 猫戏老鼠的游戏
英文释义：a contrived action involving constant pursuit, near captures, and repeated escapes
pit
/pɪt/
v. 使竞争，使较量
搭配短语：pit against
例句：We'll be pitting against their team.
rolling out
在市场上推出某物
近义词：launch
例句：We plan to roll out a new course in June.
resulting
/rɪˈzʌl.tɪŋ/
adj. 因而发生的；作为结果的
相关词汇：result（n. 结果）
英文释义：caused by the event or situation which you have just mentioned
搭配短语：the car accident and the resulting death
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