The$100billionbet

TWOyearsago,ifyouhadasked expertsto identify themostinfluential person in tech-nology, youwould have heardsome familiarnames: JeffBezosofAmazon, AlibabasJackMa orFacebooksMarkZuckerberg. To-daythere isa newcontender:Masayoshi Son. The founderofSoftBank, a Japanese telecomsand internetfirm, hasputtogetheran enormousinvestmentfund thatisbusygobblingup stakesin the worldsmostexcit-ingyoungcompanies. The Vision Fund isdisruptingboth theindustriesin which itinvestsand othersuppliersof capital. The fund isthe resultofa peculiaralliance forged in 2016 be-tween MrSon and Muhammad bin Salman. Saudi Arabiasthrustingcrown prince handed MrSon $45bn aspartofhis at-temptto diversifythe kingdomseconomy. Thatgreatdollop ofcapital attracted more investors—from AbuDhabi, Apple andothers. Add in SoftBanksown $28bn ofequity, and MrSon hasawarchestof$100bn. Thatfarexceedsthe $64bn thatall ven-ture capital (VC) fundsraised globallyin 2016; itisfourtimesthe size ofthe biggestprivate-equityfund everraised (see Brief-ing). One VCgrandee callsVision Fund “the mostpowerful in-vestorin ourworld”.Masastroke...Powerdoesnotnecessarilymean success. Scepticsabout theVision Fund have lotsofammunition. Aftera longbull market,the valuationsoftech firmsare stretched. MrSon personallymakesmostofthe investingdecisions. He hasnotched upsome triumphsin hiscareer, includingan earlybeton Alibaba.Buthisdotcom-era investmentsmean he isalso the person tohave lostmore moneythan anyone else in history. Hispursuitofthe “singularity”, the pointatwhich computerintelligenceexceedsthe human kind, mightmake him a visionary—or justan eccentric. The moneyisbeingshovelled outalmost asfastasitwastaken in. The fund hasalreadyspent$30bn, nearlyasmuch asthe $33bn raised bythe entire American VCindustryin 2017. And because abouthalfofitscapital isin the form ofdebt, itisunderpressure to make interestpayments. Thiscom-bination ofgargantuanism, grandiosityand guaranteedpayoutsmayend up in financial disaster. Indeed, the VisionFund could markthe giddytop ofthe tech boom.Buteven ifthe fund endsup flopping, itwill have severallastingeffectson technologyinvesting. The firstis thatthe de-ploymentofso much cash nowwill help shape the industriesofthe future. MrSon ispumpingmoneyinto “frontiertechnol-ogies” from roboticsto the internetofthings. He already ownsstakesin ride-hailingfirmssuch asUber; in WeWork, a co-workingcompany; and in Flipkart, an Indian e-commerce firmthatwasthisweeksold to Walmart(see Businesssection). Infive years time the fund plansto have invested in 70-100 tech-nologyunicorns, privatelyheld startupsvalued at$1bn ormore. Itsmoney, often handed to entrepreneursin multiples ofthe amountstheyinitiallydemand and accompanied bythethreatthatthe cash will go to the competition ifthey balk, gives