西班牙社会党人——为何西班牙的左翼政党如此疲软？

【导读】经济不振，西班牙社会党掀不起风浪。

Spain’s Socialists
西班牙社会党人

Why Spain’s left is in a funk
为何西班牙的左翼政党如此疲软？

The party leader struggles to put the government’s unpopularity to use
社会党领导人想利用政府的不得人心，却有心无力

Mar 23rd 2013 | MADRID |From the print edition

ALFREDO PÉREZ RUBALCABA, leader of Spain’s beleaguered opposition Socialists, is a man with a noose around his neck. It is slowly tightening. More than a year after his party lost power its poll ratings remain below those of Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party (PP). They are five points down on their November 2011 election result, standing at just 23%.
西班牙反对党，陷入困境的社会党党首，阿尔弗雷多·佩雷兹·鲁瓦尔卡瓦，眼下正如一套索在项的绞刑犯。而套索正慢慢收紧。他的政党已经失去执政权一年多了，其支持率仍然低于马里亚诺·拉霍伊的人民党（简写PP）。如今他们的支持率仅有23%，比2011年11月的选举结果低了5个百分点。

This is remarkable. Spain’s economy has tumbled deeper into recession under the premiership of Mr Rajoy. A further 700,000 people have joined the dole queues, pushing unemployment to 26.2% of the workforce. And as the value of their homes falls further, frightened Spanish consumers are keeping purses zipped tight. Many must raid savings to get by.
这结果是值得玩味的。西班牙经济在拉伊霍总理的任期内进一步深陷衰退。新增的七十万领取失业金的民众，将失业率抬高至26.2%。而随着房产价格的进一步下跌，恐慌中的西班牙消费者们选择继续捂紧钱包。许多地产商必须大量借贷，依赖国民储蓄度日。

Wage earners and pensioners are all getting poorer. Of the more needy, 1.9m unemployed do not receive state benefits. And, as Spaniards digest tax rises and spending cuts, protests from health, education and other public workers are a daily occurrence.
在职者与退休人员都在变穷。而更贫穷的是那190万无社会保障的失业者。并且，由于西班牙人渐渐接受了增税与削减开支，且渴望政府的财政健康，所以教育与其他公共部门的工作者的职位，也危在旦夕。

Mr Rajoy’s PP, meanwhile, is engulfed in a corruption scandal. The man he appointed party treasurer, Luis Bárcenas, hid €22m ($28.5m) in Switzerland. Newspapers allege he ran a secret party slush-fund with senior PP noses in the trough. Promises of green pastures further down the road of austerity have yet to convince voters. The PP’s poll ratings have fallen from 45% to 24% since the election.
与此同时，拉霍伊首相的人民党正深陷腐败丑闻。他所任命的党内财务主管路易斯·巴尔塞尼亚斯在瑞士私藏了2200万欧元（2850万美元）。媒体报道，在人民党内上司的首肯下，他建立了一个秘密党内小金库。于紧缩中清廉执政的承诺无法再使选民信服。自选举后，人民党的支持率从45%降至24%。

So why are the Socialists not storming ahead? Many Spaniards blame them for the current mess. A once buoyant economy crashed on the watch of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, a Socialist prime minister. Mr Rubalcaba, as deputy prime minister, was associated with the debacle. The party, meanwhile, is digging its own grave. Its Catalan wing rebelled in parliament recently, backing Catalonia’s “right to decide” on its future. That scares Socialist voters in other parts of Spain. But Mr Rubalcaba’s opposition to the idea puts off potential supporters in Catalonia, where Mr Zapatero anchored his victories. A messy town-hall coup in northern Ponferrada, which saw local Socialists ally with the convicted protagonist of a nasty sexual harassment case, showed the party in further disarray.
是以为何社会党未能借此机会迎头赶超？因为许多西班牙人认为社会党仍应为当下的混乱负责。曾经欣欣向荣的经济，在社会党人何塞·路易斯·罗德里格斯·萨帕特罗首相治下陷入萧条。而彼时的代首相鲁瓦尔卡瓦，则与经济崩溃联系在一起。而此时的社会党正在自掘坟墓。党内的加泰罗尼亚势力最近开始反叛议会，重启争取加泰人对未来的”决定权“的主张。这可吓坏了西班牙其他地区的社会党选民。但鲁瓦尔卡瓦对这一主张的反对减少了加泰地区的潜在选民，而这正是帮助萨帕特罗锁定选举胜利的地区。而在北部城市蓬费拉达，一场混乱的，因当地社会党人与一位下流的性骚扰案主角结盟而冲击市政厅的活动，表明了社会党陷入进一步的混乱的可能。

Mr Rubalcaba himself remains a problem. He has clung to the top job despite leading the party to an historic defeat in 2011. The 61-year-old veteran not only bears the Zapatero stigma, but also that of a minister in Felipe González’s 1990s governments. He is hardly a bright new broom for jaundiced left-wing voters. Some party leaders say so openly. “Many others agree with me,” said Tomas Gómez, a prominent rebel who heads the Madrid party branch.
鲁瓦尔卡瓦自己也有麻烦。尽管在2011年的选举中遭遇了历史性的重挫，可他仍然牢牢把持着社会党党首的位置。这位61岁的政坛老手不仅经受过萨帕特罗时代的耻辱，而且早在90年代便在费利佩·冈萨雷斯政府任职部长。对激进的左翼选民而言，他可算不上一位能带来新风的人物。一些党内领导人，譬如著名的反对派，社会党马德里分部领导人，托马斯·戈麦斯，甚至公开宣称：”另有许多人支持我。“

Mr Gómez may fancy himself as a candidate for the premiership, as does Patxi López, the popular former Basque regional president. Better bets are a former defence minister, Carme Chacón, aged 42, or one of the party’s parliamentary bosses, Eduardo Madina. Ms Chacón was narrowly beaten for the leadership by Mr Rubalcaba at a conference last year. She broke ranks with her Catalan colleagues to abstain in the vote on the “right to decide” in a tactical bid to stay in the running. Mr Madina is just 37, yet still experienced. He also wins sympathy for overcoming a terrorist bomb attack that blew off part of his leg. But he might not yet want the job.
戈麦斯或许在幻想自己能够成为首相候选人，而广受欢迎的巴斯克自治区前任主席帕池·洛佩兹也同样。更有把握的人选应该是42岁的前任国防部长卡梅·查孔，以及社会党议院领袖爱德华多·麦地那。于去年的党内大会的党首争夺中，查孔女士以微弱劣势惜败于鲁瓦尔卡瓦。她战略性地与党内的加泰同僚脱离关系，从而避免被卷入关于”决定权“的投票，得以继续留于局内。而麦地那只有37岁，经验有限。恐怖炸弹袭击使他失去了一截腿，而战胜苦难使他赢得了公众的同情心。但他或许并不欲求这个职位。

Analysts predict that the economy will shrink by 1.5% this year; recovery in 2014 is uncertain. The European Commission expects unemployment will still be stuck above 26% next year. Elections will probably be held at the end of 2015. Austerity-exhausted Spaniards may demand change. But if the Socialists want power, they probably need a new leader.
分析人士预测今年的经济会下滑1.5%，且并不确定到2014年是否能够复苏。欧盟委员会希望能将失业率控制在26%。而2015年末可能又将举行选举。承受着紧缩之苦的西班牙人或许会要求改变。但若社会党想要重掌权力，或许他们需要一个新的领袖。

From the print edition: Europe