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经济学人:A380的未来

经济学人:A380的未来

作者: Lawrence_松 | 来源:发表于2016-11-29 19:12 被阅读173次

    在世界上一些最繁忙的机场附近,总是会有一些飞机爱好者拿着摄像机苦苦蹲守,只是为了能拍到“巨无霸”A380的身影,但是这件事对于“驻守”在迪拜机场的飞机迷来说实在是太容易了。迪拜是阿联酋航空的大本营,他们拥有86架这样的大“怪兽”,86架是全球目前正在服役的A380数量的一半。这些飞机也帮助阿航从十几年前一家无足轻重的航空公司成长为全球最大的航空承运人(按照2015年的国际乘客里程计算),但是现在这家公司正在经历一个低谷,这对于生产A380的欧洲航空业巨头空客集团来说实在是一个坏消息,对于这架飞机的命运来说也是同样如此。

    对于阿联酋来说,为了开通更多从迪拜枢纽出发的航班,他们对于飞机的需求一度看起来是“欲壑难填”,而迪拜在民航业被认为是一个“超级连接器”。“它的地理位置解释了阿联酋航空现在的困难和辉煌的过去。”总裁Tim Clark说,他在1985年帮助成立了这家公司。他说,迪拜当时还是一个“迷人的阿拉伯村庄”,并且没有什么航空旅客。但是阿航成立当初并没有想着如何用本地人填满飞机,他们的策略是利用自己位于亚洲和欧洲交接地带的地理优势连接地球两边的城市,比如开罗和上海,莫斯科和开普敦,这些城市之间原本不存在明显的连接。

    Clark说,通过连接这些“陌生的城市对(city pairs),乘坐阿联酋航空的旅客数量猛增。而且,从2008年开始,一连串的A380大订单使得他们运输的旅客数量翻番至2015年的5100多万。良好的机场设施以及廉价劳动力(招聘的外国飞行员也不贵,主要是因为税率低)同样为阿联酋航空的业绩做出了一定的贡献。除此之外,阿联酋航空在运营国际长途航线方面,成本是全世界最低。

    但是随着时间的推移,问题也开始浮出水面。国际油价过去两年都处于历史低位,这也一定程度上影响了迪拜周边国家的经济增长,阿联酋航空的本地客源自然也会受到影响。另外,欧洲发生的恐怖袭击以及中东的紧张局势也为全球的旅游业蒙上了一层不小的阴影。

    尽管迪拜是一个安全的地方,但是伊拉克,叙利亚以及也门的冲突,甚至是土耳其7月份那次不成功的”军事政变“,都在促使旅客选择其他可以中转的城市。汇率的波动也意味着某些航线上收入会突然下降。“以前这种破坏生意的事情都是每年发生一次,但是现在每个月都会发生一次。"Clark说。2015年,阿联酋航空的净利润是19亿美元,但是从3月份之后的半年时间内阿航的净利润暴跌了75%。国际市场的疲软需求使得阿联酋航空不得不采取降价的策略来填满自己的那些大飞机。

    但是,阿联酋航空不是市场上唯一的受害者,可以让它感到宽慰的是,中东四大航中的其他三家—阿布扎比的阿提哈德航空,卡塔尔航空以及土耳其航空也都很“受伤”。土耳其航空不得不暂停运营22条航线上的航班,而且还“雪藏”了30架飞机闲置不用。很多分析师都认为土耳其航空可能会面临10年来的第一次亏损,与此同时,卡塔尔和阿提哈德最后的业绩也有可能是亏损。

    “对于阿联酋航空来说,诡变的地缘政治并不是一件新鲜事,毕竟他们正是在两伊战争期间成立的。”Clark说。迪拜目前也正在大力发展自己的旅游业,这在一定程度上可以弥补公司正在失去的一些中转旅客。没有人怀疑他们一定可以度过难关。

    阿联酋航空对于A380的“胃口”就是另外一个故事了,但是他们的“胃口”正在不断缩小,态度转变的速度比空客预想的还要快。下个月2号,最新一批的“巨无霸”飞机将会抵达迪拜,而阿联酋航空还有56架A380没有交付,其中31架会在2019年之前交付,其余的要等到2020年之后,主要是用来替换即将退役的旧飞机。2013年的时候阿联酋航空的最后一个大订单(50架A380)拯救了空客的A380项目。阿联酋航空曾经想要买200架更省油的A380,但是在现在的情况下,Tim Clark说阿联酋航空现在不太可能在短期内再下单。

    “除了阿联酋航空,空客目前另外18架,其他航空公司会买账的,A380订单。”Teal Group的副总裁Richard Aboulafia说。虽然空客已经宣布A380会减产,但是即使是每个月只生产一架,可能还是没有人会为此买单。

    所以空客目前正在中国和日本物色的买家,这两个国家的主要机场的跑道目前都已经非常的拥挤,因此对于大飞机的需求理论上是存在的(空客最开始给大飞机取名为A380是因为8在一些亚洲国家被认为是吉祥的数字)。中国的航空公司目前只买了5架,但是空客希望他们可以买更多,因为中国的民航局负责人,一位出了名不看好A380的高层,今年年初的时候已经退休。如果中国不愿意有所表示,就像阿联酋航空一样,飞机爱好者们可能更要珍惜他们能够看到A380的机会了。

    AT the world’s major airports, plane-spotters often spend days waiting for the world’s largest passenger plane, the Airbus A380, to make an appearance. The nerds at Dubai International Airport are spoilt for choice. It is home to Emirates, an airline that owns 86 of the monster aircraft, almost half of the global A380 fleet. These planes have propelled Emirates from insignificance a decade ago to its position as the world’s biggest carrier (measured by international passenger mileage in 2015). Now the airline has hit a rough patch. That is bad news for Airbus, the European aerospace and defence giant which makes the A380, and for the plane itself.

    Demand once seemed insatiable for flights through Emirates’ hub in Dubai, which is known in the industry as a “super-connector” airport. Now its location helps explain the airline’s difficulties as well as its spectacular past growth, says its president, Sir Tim Clark. When he helped set up the airline in 1985, he says, Dubai was “an enchanting Arab village” that generated little air traffic. Instead of filling up the planes with locals, his strategy was to use its position halfway between Asia and Europe to connect flights between cities that lacked obvious links, such as Cairo and Shanghai or Moscow and Cape Town.

    Connecting these “strange city pairs”, as he puts it, led to soaring passenger numbers. A string of purchases of A380s, starting in 2008, helped traffic to more than double to 51m in 2015. Good airport facilities and access to cheap labour (even expatriate pilots are inexpensive in Dubai because of low taxes) contributed to profits as well: the airline has the lowest costs of any long-haul carrier in the world.

    But over the past year or so problems have mounted. Low oil prices have hit the economies of many of Dubai’s neighbours, reducing regional passenger traffic. Terrorist attacks in cities and airports in Europe and the Middle East have dampened tourism activity generally.

    Although Dubai itself is safe, conflict in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, as well as Turkey’s attempted military coup in July, are prompting passengers to choose other connecting cities. Currency volatility has also meant abrupt drops in revenue on some routes. “We used to have one of these business-damaging events once a year but now we have them more than once a month,” groans Sir Tim. In the year to March, Emirates made a record $1.9bn in profits, but since April its earnings have tumbled by 75%. Weak demand has forced it to slash its fares to keep planes full.

    Emirates can take some solace from the fact that its super-connector rivals in the Middle East—Etihad of Abu Dhabi, Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines—are also hurting. Turkish Airlines has had to suspend flights on 22 routes and mothball 30 planes. Industry analysts reckon the airline will this year suffer its first annual loss for a decade. Qatar and Etihad may also end up in the red.

    Tricky geopolitics is nothing new for Emirates, which was founded during the Iran-Iraq war, argues Sir Tim. Dubai is trying to boost its own tourism industry, which should help replace some of the connecting passengers the airline is losing. No one doubts that it will pull through.

    Emirates’ appetite for the A380 is a different story. That may dwindle more quickly than Airbus had anticipated. On December 2nd the first planes in a new batch of super-jumbos are due to arrive in Dubai. In total, Emirates has a further 56 A380s on order: 31 are to be delivered between now and 2019, with another 25 due to arrive in the 2020s to replace older ones nearing retirement. Emirates rescued the A380 programme with its last big order in 2013. The airline had wanted to buy another 200 A380s equipped with more fuel-efficient engines. But in current conditions Sir Tim says there is little chance of his airline making another large order anytime soon.

    Airbus has orders for only another 18 super-jumbos from other airlines that are likely to be delivered and paid for, according to Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group, a consultancy in Virginia. The manufacturer has already cut planned production, but may still run out of customers for even this diminished number.

    So Airbus is on the hunt for new buyers in China and Japan, places where runways are most congested and the need for larger planes is most acute (the firm originally gave the A380 its name because eight is considered lucky in some Asian countries). Chinese airlines have only bought five so far but the hope is they might buy more now that the country’s aviation regulator, a noted super-jumbo sceptic, retired earlier this year. If they are not willing to step up, as Emirates once did, plane-spotters will have even more reason to cherish their sightings of the A380.

    原文链接:http://www.economist.com/news/business/21710850-three-years-ago-emirates-rescued-a380-aeroplane-its-own-problems-now-cast-doubt

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