2019年5月28日
These risks could actually deliver a trade deal between the US and China
Data shows the percentage share of global manufacturing production and workforce by individual nation. China stands head and shoulders above the rest, reflecting not only that it has a lot of people but also that is still produces a lot of simplified manufactured goods. The United States, while having a far smaller workforce than China as a share of the global manufacturing workforce, remains the second-largest manufacturer of goods in terms of value-add.
The U.S. has already slapped 25% tariffs on around half of all Chinese imports entering the country. There’s a growing risk it may eventually apply 25% tariffs on all Chinese goods imports in the not-too-distant-future. So what could potentially lead to a trade breakthrough, seemingly unlikely at this point given negotiations have broken down, to help reduce the risk of another step-down in the global economy?
Donald Trump has an incentive to make a deal because not doing so risks the strong growth and solid equity market performance that will help his prospects in next year’s election. Also, President Xi has an incentive to make a deal because China faces a significant growth shock, with business failures and rising unemployment, if no deal is reached.
While hopes of a trade deal, or at least a de-escalation in trade tensions, remain with Trump and Xi set to meet on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Japan in late June, if no breakthrough is found, Credit Suisse says it won’t just be the American and Chinese economies that will suffer as a result.
Advice from Twilio CEO Jeff Lawson has for enterprise software firms going public
You only need to look at Uber to know that initial public offerings (IPOs) can be fraught with danger. The ridesharing app logged the biggest first-day dollar loss in US IPO historyin May, following a similarly lacklustre performance by its rival Lyft.
While business-facing software companies are proving themselves to be market darlings, with successful IPOs by firms like Okta and MuleSoft. Twilio, which provides call, SMS and digital messaging services to app developers —listed on the NYSE in June 2016 at US$15 a share.On Tuesday, Twilio is priced at US$133.90 per share and has a market capitalisation of $16.9 billion.
The stockmarket is like a “voting machine” which tallies individual votes, but in the long-term is a “weighing machine” which measures substance. “In the short-term, the market is like a popularity contest, but in the long-term it’s a talent show,” Lawson says. “Focus on the customers, focus on building a good business, everything else will work itself out. I’m confident of that,” he adds.
His second piece of advice is regarding a situation that gets tech entrepreneurs into hot water, Lawson says. “Where CEOs and entrepreneurs get into trouble … is when they promise things to investors that aren’t really what they want to do and how they want to run the company, and then they get in a jam,” Instead, you need to be straight with investors, whether private or public, institutional or retail.
In Australia, their progress has included signing some big name clients in Australia including Atlassian, AirTasker, Lendi, Aussie Bum and Domino’s.
TikTok’s parent company wants to make a smartphone
TikTok’s parent company is eyeing up the smartphone industry. China’s ByteDance, which owns popular streaming app TikTok, is looking to develop its own smartphone.
This new project is the brainchild of founder Zhang Yimin, who has been “dreaming” of creating a phone that would come preloaded with the company’s apps such as news aggregator Jinri Toutiao and video streaming app, TikTok. TikTok is hugely popular for its app that lets users post short, creative looping videos, surpassing Instagram for global downloads last year. Its parent ByteDance is the most valuable startup in the world.
The news comes as the US-China cold war intensifies and puts increased pressure on global tech companies. This could potentially impact ByteDance’s ability to sell these phones in the US. ByteDance is following in the footsteps of both Facebook and Amazon, who have both launched their own-brand phones in the past but ultimately abandoned them.
“There’s basically no space for them in the mass market,” Jia Mo, a Shanghai-based analyst at Canalys told The Financial Times. “They lack experience and advantage in supply chain, in channels . . . so their likelihood of being successful is very low.”
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