The Aircraft IndustryPlane Trut

When a Boeing 737 max 8 crashed near Addis Ababa after take-off on March 10th,157 people lost their lives. It did not take long for the human tragedy to raise questions about what went wrong. That has fed a crisis of trust in Boeing and in the FAA, the American regulator which, even as its counterparts grounded the max 8, left it flying for three days before President Donald Trump stepped in, suspending all max planes.

Mr Trump noted that Boeing was “an incredible company”. In fact the crash is a warning. After a 20-year boom, one of the West’s most sophisticated industries faces a difficult future.

3月10日，一架波音737 max8起飞后，在亚的斯亚贝巴（埃塞俄比亚首都）附近坠毁，机上157人遇难。悲剧发生后不久，人们开始追问事故原因。从而酝酿出一场对波音和联邦航空管理局FAA的信任危机，即使在别国空管部门（同行）都停飞max8时，FAA，(美国的飞机监管机构)依然任由(还允许)该机型运营，直到三天后美国总统特朗普介入，暂停所有max系列飞机执飞（执飞是行业用语）。

特朗普称波音是个了不起的公司，然而，事实上，这一空难警示着西方世界最精密的航空业，在历经20年的繁荣期后，面临着艰辛的未来(前景堪忧)。

The max 8 is one of Boeing’s most advanced models. Until this week it has been a commercial triumph, with 370 in operation and 4,700 more on order. The 737 series makes up a third of Boeing’s profits and most of its order book. That performance caps an extraordinary two decades for the Boeing and Airbus duopoly, as a growing global middle class has taken to the air. Over 21,000 aircraft are in use; a new plane is delivered every five hours. Boeing has slimmed down its supply chain and Airbus has asserted its independence from European governments. That has led to a shareholder bonanza. Their combined market value of $310bn is six times bigger than in 2000. And their overall safety record has been good, with one fatal accident per 2.5m flights last year.

max8是波音最先进的机型之一。此前(上周以前)，max8一直是商业的成功典范，其中，370架已经交付运营，还有4700架待交付。波音公司的大部分订单都是373系列，总价值占其利润的1/3(第一次的译文为：737系列机型贡献了波音公司1/3的利润和大部分的订单数)。随着全球越来越多的中产阶级选择飞机出行，在波音和空客两大巨头的非凡市场业绩20年来无人能比。投入运营的飞机超过2万1千架，每5个小时就有一架新机交付。波音精简了供应链，空客宣布独立于欧洲政府，政商分离。这一系列的努力换来了股市上的繁荣(切对于两者股东而言无疑是利好的)。两家公司的总市值3100亿美金，是2000年的6倍。并且，整体安全记录良好，去年，每2500万次飞行中，一次致命事故。

This week’s crash foreshadows the end of that golden age. Another max 8 crashed in October in Indonesia in similar circumstances. Although investigators have yet to determine the cause of the Ethiopian Airlines accident, regulators suspect that the max 8 has a design flaw.

本周的坠机事件预示着这一黄金时代的终结。2018年10月，另一架max8在印尼坠毁，本周坠机的情形与之类似。尽管目前埃航事故的原因尚不明确，但是，监管机构怀疑max8存在设计缺陷。

This plays into the worry that a new technological phase is under way. Aircraft are becoming autonomous, as computers take charge. This promises safer, more efficient flying, but the interaction between human pilots and machines is still unpredictable and experimental. In the Indonesian crash the pilots fought a losing battle against anti-stalling software that forced the plane’s nose down at least 20 times.

这引起了人们对航空业进入新技术阶段的担忧。由于计算机的介入，飞机的工作模式趋于自主化，保证了飞机更安全，高效地飞行，但是飞行员和飞机软件控制系统之间的交互技术上并不成熟，人机交互仍然具有不可预知性。之前的印尼坠机事件中，飞机防失速控制软件迫使机头向下至少20次，虽然飞行员屡次纠正，最终仍然无济于事。

The industry’s technical complexity is amplified by its organizational complexity. In the 1990s a few Western airlines dominated and a handful of regulators had global clout. Now there are hundreds of airlines and 290,000 pilots worldwide. In 2018, for the first time, less than half of the global fleet was based in the West. Maintaining common standards on training and procedures is harder. China and other countries want a bigger say. The credibility of American regulators has slipped because they have let domestic competition decline. This suggests they are cosy with industry.

在航空业，技术难题已经令人头痛，而组织复杂度令问题难上加难。20世纪90年代，极少数西方航空公司占据主导，全球具有影响力的航空监管机构也凤毛麟角。如今，全球有成千上百家航空公司和29万飞行员。2018年，西方飞机的全球占比首次跌破一半。飞机驾驶培训及训练很难形成统一的标准。中国及其他国家希望有更多的发言权。由于美国监管机构对两大巨头的垄断听之任之，安于现状，导致其公信力也随之江河日下。Then comes geopolitic. With their hubs in Seattle and Toulouse, Boeing and Airbus are among the West’s largest exporters and a rare example of an industry in which China cannot compete. It would be depressing, but not impossible, if safety decisions were influenced by trade tensions. Over time, China and India may insist that the duopoly make more aircraft within their borders, to capture more jobs and intellectual property. That could require a restructuring of how both firms manufacture. Rows over aircraft emissions will further complicate the debate.

此外还有地缘政治因素。波音和空客的总部分别在西雅图和图卢兹，他们是西部最大的飞机出口商。航空业是中国难以和西方分庭抗礼的少数行业之一。虽然令人沮丧，但是如果贸易紧张局势影响安全决策，中国还是存在机会的。中国和印度将来或许会坚持，要求两个航空巨头将更多的飞机制造搬入自己国内，为本国提供更多地工作机会或者知识产权，由此可能会引发两巨头重构制造业。飞机尾气排放的争论将进一步加大双方对话的难度。

Neither Boeing nor Airbus is about to go bust. Any flaw in the max 8 will probably be resolved, as battery problems in the 787 Dreamliner were in 2013. Boeing has $12.7bn of cash and bank lines to cushion it from the reputational crisis. Both firms are ultimately backed by governments. In any case, demand for planes will grow. But ahead lie environmental and technological uncertainty, organisational complexity and geopolitical tension. The years of bumper margins may be over.

不管是波音还是空客都不会轻易破产。如同2013年787的dreamline的电池问题一样，max8存在的任何缺陷最终也会被修复。波音拥有127亿资金流和银行贷款额度，足以助其度过此次信誉危机。何况这两家公司都有政府后台。而且，无论如何，飞机的需求量还在增加。但是，未来环境和技术的不确定性，再加上组织复杂性及地缘政治的紧张局势，航空业一本万利时代也许将一去不返了。