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巴菲特1969年五月信(三)。2024-12-06

巴菲特1969年五月信(三)。2024-12-06

作者: 友才927 | 来源:发表于2024-12-05 20:10 被阅读0次

英文早读第143篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。

I believe we will have a liquidation program which will accomplish the above objectives. Our activities in this regard should cause no change in your tax planning for 1969.
我相信我们将会有一个清算方案可以满足上述目标。我们在这一点上的动作不会对1969年的税务计划引起变动。

One final objective, I would like very much to achieve (but which just isn't going to happen) is to go out with a bang. I hate to end with a poor year, but we are going to have one in 1969. My best guess is that at yearend, allowing for a substantial increase in value of controlled companies (against which all partners except me will have the option of taking cash), we will show a breakeven result for 1969 before any monthly payments to partners. This will be true even if the market should advance substantially between now and yearend, since we will not be in any important position which will expose us to much upside potential.
最后一个目标,我很想实现(但是并不会发生)退出的时候伴随着惊叹号。我讨厌以差的年份收尾,但是我们将要在1969年变的这样。我最好的在年底的猜测,考虑到控制类公司(在这个上除了我所有合伙人都可以选择换成现金)估值大幅增长,我们将实现在1969年任何给合伙人的月度付款前的盈亏平衡。即使市场从现在到年底大幅增长,这也是真的,因为我们将不会在使我们潜在大幅上涨的机会上有重要持仓。

Our experience in workout this year has been atrocious - during this period I have felt like the bird that inadvertently flew into the middle of a badminton game. We are not alone in such experience, but it came at a time when we were toward the upper limit of what has been our historical range of percentage commitment in this category.
今年在套利类上的经历是残忍的——在这期间我觉得自己像是不经意飞入羽毛球中间的小鸟。在这类经历上我们并不孤单,但是这次是我们达到了在这个范畴里历史上承诺比例范围的上限。

Documenting one's boners is unpleasant business. I find "selective reporting" even more distasteful. Our poor experience this year is 100% my fault. It did not reflect bad luck, but rather an improper assessment of a very fast-developing governmental trend. Paradoxically, I have long believed the government should have been doing (in terms of the problem attacked - not necessarily the means utilized) what it finally did - in other words, on an overall basis, I believe the general goal of the activity which has cost us substantial money is socially desirable and have so preached for some time. Nevertheless, I didn't think it would happen. I never believe in mixing what I think should happen (socially) with what I think will happen in making decisions - in this case, we would be some millions better off if I had.
记录自己犯下的愚蠢的错误是件不愉快的事。我觉得“选择性记录”是更加令人讨厌的。今年我们糟糕的经历100%是我的错。这不是坏运气,而是一个对快速发展的政府趋势的误判。自相矛盾的,我已经长期相信政府应该在做他最终该做的(关于遇到的问题——而不是所用方法的必要性)——换句话说,基于整体来看,我相信这个损失了我们大部分钱的动作的主要目标是社会接受的并已经被长期宣告了。然而,我不相信他会发生。我从未相信关于我认为应该发生的(社会层面的)和我认为将会发生的在做决策事混合在一起——如果这么做了,我们将会比我已经做得好上百万美元。

Quite frankly, in spite of any factors set forth on the earlier pages. I would continue to operate the Partnership in 1970, or even 1971, if I had some really first class ideas. Not because I want to, but simply because I would so much rather end with a good year than a poor one. However, I just don't see anything available that gives any reasonable hope of delivering such a good year and I have no desire to grope around, hoping to "get lucky" with other people's money. I am not attuned to this market environment and I don't want to spoil a decent record by trying to play a game I don't understand just so I can go out a hero.
更坦白说,尽管前面几页阐述的任何因素。如果我有真正一流的标的,我将继续在1970年,甚至1971年运作合伙基金。不是因为我想这样,而仅仅因为我更像以好的年份而不是坏的年份结束。然而,我没有看到任何可获得的是好的年份的合理希望,并且我不想来回摸索,用别人的钱去期待“好运”。我没有和这个市场环境同频,我也不想破坏一个好的记录通过尝试玩一个我不理解的游戏仅仅为了以英雄的身份离开。

19.in this regard:在这点上
20.bang:猛敲;猛击;叹号
21.breakeven:收支平衡;无亏损的;无损失的
22.atrocious:糟透的;残忍的;凶恶的;残暴的
23.inadvertently:无意地;不经意地
24.badminton:羽毛球;羽毛球运动
25.documenting:记录;记载;用文件证明
26.boner:(阴茎)勃起状态;令人尴尬的错误
27.distasteful:讨厌的;令人反感的
28.assessment:评估;评定;核定
29.governmental:政府的;统治的;政体的
30.paradoxically:自相矛盾的;似是而非的
31.preach:宣扬;宣传;宣讲
32.socially:社交上;交际上;和睦的
33.grope:摸索;搜寻;搜索;猥亵
34.attune:使协调;使合拍;调合波长
35.spoil:破坏;宠坏;溺爱;毁掉

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