全球变暖对美国而言意味着什么

The Doomsday book
末日审判书

A government report outlines what a warmer world means for America
一份政府报告概述了全球变暖对美国而言意味着什么

The president of that government then dismisses its findings
美国总统对这份研究发现不予理会

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP doubts that man-made climate change is a thing. According to his administration it is a clear, present and future danger to the United States. That conclusion—unsurprising to anyone who has been paying attention to climate scientists—emerges from the Fourth National Climate Assessment, compiled by 13 federal agencies and released on November 23rd. If the White House had hoped to bury the 1,600-page tome, part of a four-yearly exercise which it is obliged to prepare and make public by a law from 1990, under turkey-laden tables, the absence of news over the Thanksgiving weekend promoted it to the front pages.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（DONALD TRUMP）对人为造成的气候变暖并不当作一回事。据其领导的美国政府的一份报告显示，气候变暖对美国的当下和未来构成一个显而易见的威胁。这份由13个联邦机构编写并于11月23日发布的《第四次气候变化国家评估报告》得出了上述结论，而这对关注气候学家的人士而言是不足为奇的。据1990年起实行的一项法律，这是白宫每隔四年必须筹备并对外公布的部分活动内容。白宫本希望对这本1600页的大部头著作置之不理，将其埋在火鸡大餐的桌面之下，但重大新闻缺席的感恩节周末促使它登上了媒体头条。

The findings made for grim reading. The report details how climate change is already affecting America—through more frequent floods and droughts—and what to expect from falling crop yields, the spread of disease-carrying bugs, fiercer hurricanes and much else besides. Sea levels, up by 16-21cm in the past 120 years, may rise by another metre over the next 80, threatening $1trn in coastal property. Rising temperatures could force Texans to work fewer hours (and pay 10-20% more for energy). Wildfires should cause less devastation by 2090 than they do today—but only because many forests most prone to them will have burned to a crisp. All told, unchecked greenhouse-gas emissions could lop a tenth off American GDP this century.
这项研究发现不容乐观。该报告详细说明了气候变化是如何通过更频繁的洪水和干旱来影响美国的，以及农作物产量的下降、传染病的蔓延、更猛烈飓风的肆虐等现象将会带来怎样的后果。在过去的120年里，海平面已上升了16-21厘米，在未来的80年内可能会再上升1米，并对沿海地区的房产造成1万亿美元损失的威胁。气温升高可能会迫使德克萨斯州民众减少工作时间(并支付10-20%的额外能源费用)。到2090年，森林火灾的破坏性应该会比现在的要小得多，但这只是因为大量最易发生火灾的森林已化为焦土。总而言之，无节制的温室气体排放在本世纪将造成美国GDP缩减1/10。

Some politicians are heeding the warnings. On November 27th a bipartisan group in the House of Representatives introduced a bill to tax emissions and redistribute the proceeds as a cheque to citizens, though this looks doomed so long as Mr Trump’s fellow Republican climate sceptics control the Senate. In any event, action by America would not be enough on its own to limit the damage. Curbing global warming requires a global effort. A UN report released this week estimates that national commitments made so far by the 197 signatories of the Paris climate agreement add up to barely a third of what is needed to keep warming below 2°C (3.6°F) relative to pre-industrial times. Even if this goal were met, climate change could shave $200-430bn a year off American output.
一些政客正在注意到这些警告。11月27日，美国众议院（House of Representatives）内的一个两党团体提出一项对碳排放征税和将所得税收以支票形式再分配给公民的法案。不过，只要对气候持怀疑态度的特朗普总统的共和党同僚仍把控着参议院，那么这项法案看似将要破产。无论如何，美国的单边行动还不足以限制损害。遏制全球变暖需要全球各国采取行动。本周发布的一份联合国报告估计, 由197个成员国签署的《巴黎气候协定》,目标是将全球气温上升幅度较工业时代前水平控制在2摄氏度以内，迄今为止成员国总计只完成目标的1/3不到。即使这一目标完全得以实现，气候变化也可能造成美国的年产值消减2000至4300亿美元。

Asked about the gloomy economic forecasts, the president said that he does not believe them. They do warrant some caution. Projecting climate and growth decades from now is fraught with uncertainty; so is counting on other countries to act. Another president would read the report as a blueprint for adapting America to a warmer world. Mr Trump appears instead to treat it as a work of fiction.
在被问及黯淡的经济前景预测时，特朗普总统表示，他对这些预测不会信以为真。黯淡的经济前景确实促使人们趋于谨慎。关于几十年后的气候和增长预测充满了不确定性;指望其他国家采取行动同样也是如此。另一位总统也许会将这份报告解读为促使美国适应全球变暖的蓝图，但特朗普总统似乎视其为胡编乱造。（译：林雅欣）

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/12/01/a-government-report-outlines-what-a-warmer-world-means-for-america

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