工作都去哪儿了？

America's jobless recovery

美国失业率回升

Where are the jobs?

工作都去哪儿了？

ALMOST everywhere you look, the American recovery seems to be picking up pace. The economy grew faster in the third quarter than originally reported. Industrial production continues to grow. Spending has been surprisingly strong, and the latest figures on pending home sales suggest that even housing markets may be stirring from their deep slump. The growth seems to be everywhere except the place it matters most—labour markets. Employment in America turned in a surprisingly poor performance in November, indicating that recovery still hasn't gotten the job creation machine turning steadily.

美国各个经济领域的复苏似乎都在加速。第三季度的经济增长速度比此前媒体所报道的更快。工业生产持续增长。消费支出表现出令人惊讶的强势增长，而待售房屋的最新数字显示，住房市场即便在低潮时期也出现了反弹。美国国内呈现增长的趋势无处不在，但就业市场这一重要领域却是例外。美国就业市场在11月份出人意料地表现不佳，而这表明经济恢复还未让创造就业岗位的机器稳步运转起来。

This morning, the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported a disappointing gain of only 39,000 jobs for the month of November. The figure came in well below expectations. In October, the economy grew by an (upwardly revised) 172,000 jobs, and on Wednesday a private employment report estimated that the economy added 93,000 private sector workers. Markets had expected one of the strongest reports of the recovery so far. That's not what they received.

劳工统计局今日上午报告称，美国于11月份增加了39,000个工作岗位，这组令人失望的数据远远低于预期。10月，经济增长创造了172,000份(上调后的数据)工作岗位，一份私人就业报告周三估计，经济发展给私营部门补充了93,000位员工。截至目前，这是市场预期最为强势的报告之一。但事实并非如此。

In November, according to the BLS, private employers added just 50,000 new jobs—the worst performance since April. From that paltry total were subtracted 11,000 in lost government jobs. Small gains in federal and state government employment were offset by a 14,000 job fall in local government employment. Within the private sector, drops in employment among goods-producing and retail trade firms were offset by new hires among professional and businesses services and in the health and education sectors.

美国劳工统计局的数据显示，私营企业雇主11月份只增加了50000份新工作，这是4月份以来的最糟状况，而在此微不足道的总数中还要除去政府部门的失业人数。联邦政府和州政府部门的工作岗位呈现了微不足道的增长，但地方政府部门减少了14000份工作，彼此可以相互抵消。在私营部门, 生产企业和零售贸易公司就业机会的减少刚好同特定商业服务以及卫生教育部门中的新增就业持平。

The unemployment rate rose to 9.8%—its highest level since April and close to the 10.1% recession peak. At 15.1m, the number of unemployed workers rose back to its April high (though some of this increase was due to new entrants to the labour force). Fully 6.3m people have been out of work for more than 27 weeks. Many of these workers are now cycling off federal emergency unemployment benefits, which expired November 30. Congress has yet to reauthorise the emergency benefits package, as it has done so many times through the recession. Some 2m jobless workers may lose benefits by the end of 2010, and perhaps 4m or more will lose them by April.

美国国内失业率上升到9.8%，达到4月份以来的最高水平，也接近经济衰退时期10.1%的最高水平。1510万的失业人数创4月新高(尽管这一增长归功于刚刚参加社会的劳动力)。630多万人失业已达27周以上，其中许多劳工一直在定期领取即将于11月30日到期的联邦失业应急救济金。而国会尚未再次批准一揽子失业应急救济金方案，此举是美国以往应对经济衰退的惯例。大约200万失业人员可能会于2010年底无法领取救济金，也许有400万或更多的人将在明年4月份失去救济金。

There is little to be happy about in this report, in other words. But there are some indications that the November numbers may be an aberration. September's job losses were revised down to 24,000 in this report, while October's job gains were revised upward, from 151,000 to 172,000. Through November, weekly data on initial jobless claims showed significant improvement. And of course, many other indicators have been flashing positive signs in recent weeks.

换句话说，这份报告的内容不容乐观。但有一些迹象表明，11月份的数据可能存有一些偏差。在这份报告中，9月份的失业人数被更正为24000，而10月份就业人数的增长从151,000上调至172,000。纵观11月份，首次申请失业救济人员的每周数据存有明显的完善之处。当然，许多其他指标也在最近数周呈现着积极的迹象。

It's likely, then, that the November figures will be revised up in future months to show a better performance more in keeping with broader trends. And it's important to remember that monthly data are noisy. America's labour markets have yet to generate job growth sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate. But the pace of recovery has been improving. There is good reason to suspect that when all is said and done this report will appear as a blip marring a strengthening upward employment trend. All the same, policymakers in Washington weighing whether to extend unemployment benefits and tax cuts should heed the obvious weakness in labour markets. They can and should make sure that November's number remains an anomaly.

那么，11月份的数据很有可能会在未来数月内上调，以显现出一种符合更大趋势的较强势头。月份数据是杂乱无章的，而明白此理则显得至关重要。美国劳动力市场还没有创造足够的就业增长来降低失业率。但经济复苏的步伐正在加快。有足够的理由怀疑，此份报告说到底是同就业趋势好转不相符合的一个小小偏差。与此同时，权衡是否延长失业津贴时长和制定减税政策的华盛顿决策者也应当重视就业市场上存在的明显缺陷。他们能够并且应确保11月份的数据是一种异常现象。