Africa nears 1m reported cases of covid-19. The true number is much higher
非洲报告的新冠病例在100万左右，但真实数字远不止如此。
“It’s been hectic,”says Thabo Nko, an undertaker in Soweto ，a township on the outskirts of Johannesburg. Before the pandemic he would do two or three burials in a week. These days he is doing about 20. The nearest public cemeteries are full, so he has to bury some corpses 50km away
约翰尼斯堡（位于南非东北部）郊区小镇的一位殡葬工作者说：“太忙了”。在新冠之前，他每周可能会埋葬2-3次。但这几天将近20次。附近的公共墓地都满了，他只能把一些尸体埋到50公里以外。
Surprisingly, all the death is not good for business. Overwhelmed authorities are behind on issuing the death certificates families need to claim on their funeral insurance policies. For the first time since opening in 2007, Mr Nko is laying people to rest before he is paid. “I had to drop that rule,” he says. “There is too much to do.”
令人惊讶的是，所有的死亡都不利于企业。不堪重负的当局机构不能够及时签发死亡证明，家属们需要用来索赔丧葬保险。在2007年之前，Nko 先生允许员工在拿到薪水之前休息。但他现在说：“我不得不调整这个规则，太多事情要去做了。”
South Africa has the world’s fifth-highest number of reported cases. It accounts for 53% of the confirmed cases and 43% of deaths from covid-19 in Africa. But that does not mean the rest of the continent is being spared. Instead it reflects a lack of data in most other countries—and how their peaks may be yet to come
在报道出来的病例中，南非排名第五。确诊病例占非洲总病例的 53% ，因新冠死亡的病例占43% 。但这并不代表其余的国家能够幸免。相反，这说明了其它大多数国家数据缺失 —— 以及他们的峰值将如何到来。
As of August 5th the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, a publichealth body, had recorded 992,710 cases in Africa. It took about five months for the continent to reach 500,000 cases and another month to reach close to 1m. The compound daily growth rate of new cases over the past two weeks was higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions. In reality the millionth African contracted covid-19 many weeks ago.
截至至 8.5日，非洲疾控中心——一个公共健康组织 ，已经记录了992710 个病例。从0倒50万病例，花费了5个月。而从50到近100万，则只花费了一个月。在过去两周，非洲撒哈拉以南新增病例的复合增长率比其它地区要搞。实际上，许多星期之前，已经有百万非洲人感染了。
The full extent of the undercount is unknown. The share of tests that come up positive is below 5% in only a few countries, suggesting widespread underreporting elsewhere. Low test-positivity-rates are found in states with relatively efficient governments, such as Botswana; countries with feared security forces, like Uganda; and those that have both, such as Rwand
少计算的具体的程度尚不清楚。只有少数几个国家检测呈阳性的比例低于5%，这表明其它国家普遍漏报。在政府效率相对较高的国家，比如博茨瓦纳；安全部队令人生畏的国家，比如乌干达；和二者兼备的国家，比如卢旺达 ，检测称阳性的比例比较低。
Elsewhere the shares are much higher. In most of the countries where the International Rescue Committee works the rates are in double digits—for instance Somalia (17%, as of July 30th), Congo (20%), South Sudan (19%), Ivory Coast (16%) and the Central African Republic (16%). Relative to its population, Britain has done 600 times more tests than have the African countries where the irc works.
其他地方的感染率非常高。国际救援委员会工作的的大多数国家中，感染率都达到了两位数——例如，索马里（截至7.30 感染率为17%），刚果（20%），南苏丹（19%），象牙海岸（16%）。相对于人口而言，英国进行的检测是国际救援委员会工作的的那些国家的 600倍。
Another hint of underreporting is found in the number of cases among Africa’s elites, who are more likely to get tests. At least three of South Sudan’s five vicepresidents have had covid-19. Burundi’s former president, Pierre Nkurunziza, probably died of it. So too did Perrance Shiri, Zimbabwe’s agriculture minister (who was better known for organising mass killings in Matabeleland in the 1980s). Unlike most of the country’s doctors, his pallbearers had protective gear
另外一个漏报的迹象是在非洲的精英人群中发现的，他们更有可能接受检测。在南非的5位副总统中至少有三位已经被感染了。布隆迪的前总统或许已经死于新冠。津巴布韦农业部长也是如此（他更出名的是1980年代在Matabeleland 组织的大屠杀）。与该国大多数医生不同的是，他的抬棺人都戴着防护装置。
Patchy data make it hard to assess many African countries’ responses. Mauritius, an island that quickly closed its borders, has largely suppressed the virus. Rwanda’s track-and-trace system, which includes random testing, has slowed transmission
杂乱无章的数据使得很难评估许多非洲国家的情况。毛里求斯，一个快速关闭了边境的岛屿，已经很大程度上控制了疫情。卢旺达的追踪系统，包括随机测试，降低了传播速度。
Cases seem to be growing quickly in most countries as they loosen lockdowns to try to revive their economies. States that appeared to have the virus under control, such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia, are all experiencing daily growth rates above the regional average. Ghana’s widely praised testing strategy, involving a “pooled method” in which multiple samples are tested at once, is becoming less effective as cases rise. In Nigeria, home to nearly one-sixth of Africans, testing is held back by shortages of reagents and kits. It is using less than half of its testing capacity, according to a survey by the Tony Blair Institute。
大多数放松封锁以试图恢复经济的国家，感染病例似乎都在快速增长。曾宣布疫情已经得到控制的国家，比如埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和赞比亚 现在的日均增长率高于区域平均值。加纳广受赞誉的检测策略中，包括一种“池化法”。就是把许多样本混合在一起只检测一次。这种方法随着病例的增加，起到的作用正在降低。有将近六分之一非洲人口的尼日利亚，因为试剂和装备的短缺面临检测困难。根据 Tony Blair 研究所的调查结果，它使用的测试容量还不到一半。
Two supposed advantages for African countries are geography and demography. The relative isolation of rural areas was meant to slow transmission. It still might. But, notes Matshidiso Moeti, the head of the WHO Africa region, “the virus has spilled out of major cities and spread into distant hinterlands.”
非洲国家理论上有两大优势，地理和人口。相对孤立的农村地区，意味着传播缓慢。这仍然可能。但是世界卫生组织非洲负责人 Matshidiso Moeti 指出 “病毒已经从主要城市扩散到遥远的内地了”
The continent’s youthfulness is more of an obvious boon. Most Africans were born in the 21st century. Africa has a lower share of people over the age of 65 than any other continent. A recent paper published by the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene argued that Uganda’s age structure will keep death rates lower than in other parts of the world. (Other pan-African models suggest that such advantages are outweighed by poor health systems.)
非洲的年轻化是一个明显优势。大多数非洲人出生在21世纪中期。非洲65岁以上的人口比例低于其它任何大陆。美国热带医学与卫生杂志最近发表了一篇论文，认为乌干达的年龄结构使得死亡率低于世界上其它地区。（其它非洲模型认为，这种优势不足以抵消糟糕的卫生系统）
About 2% of Africans diagnosed with covid-19 have died. That is only half the global average. But such numbers should be treated with great caution. There is a delay between diagnosis and death, so the rate can be misleading when infections are rising rapidly. Also, only a few African countries keep good cause-of-death records. The who says it is trying to improve this, but the work is not happening fast enough. And politicians may not see it as in their interest to reveal how many people have died on their watch.
在被诊断为新冠患者的非洲人种，有2%已经死亡。这只是全球平均水平的一半。但是这些数字应当被慎重对待。在确诊和死亡之间有一个延迟，所以当感染人数迅速上升的时候，死亡率可能会被误导。另外，只有很少一部分非洲国家有良好的死因记录。他们说正在尝试提升这种状况，但工作进展不够快。因为利益关系，政客们可能并不情愿报道任期内有多少人死亡。
Even in South Africa, which has reliable records, the toll is probably far higher than the official tally of 9,298. On August 5th the country’s Medical Research Council noted that from May 6th to July 28th there were 28,329 more deaths from natural causes than forecast by historical trends. The vast bulk of these will probably have been related to covid-19.
即使在有可靠记录的南非，伤亡人数可能也远高于官方统计的9298人。在八月五日，该国的医疗研究委员会指出，从5.6日到7.28日，自然死亡人数比历史趋势预测的要多出 28329 。其中大部分可能与新冠有关。
Such data chime with Mr Nko’s experience. South Africa has an older population than other African states. But many covidwatchers fear that what is happening at the southern tip of the continent may be repeated elsewhere. Whether it will be recorded is another question.
这些数据与 Nko 先生的经验相符。南非的人口老龄化比其它非洲国家严重。许多新冠观察者担心，非洲大陆南端发生的情况可能会在其它地方重演。至于它是否会被记录是另外一个问题。
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