【大企业读书会】2019年2月11日/周一

        外 媒 中 国 资 讯 深 度 精 选

  中国仍是全球矿业并购主力军

中国企业日益瞄准电动汽车电池和清洁能源技术所需的矿产，相继收购刚果民主共和国、塞尔维亚等国的铜、钴和锂资产。

Chinese companies have been the biggest buyers of overseas mining assets over the past year, in a concerted push to secure the metals and minerals required for the energy transition away from fossil fuels.

在过去一年里，中国企业一直是海外矿业资产的最大买家。它们步调一致地努力获取能源转型所需的金属和矿物，这场转型的目标是逐步淘汰化石燃料。

With more than $7bn worth of deals in 2018, according to Dealogic, Chinese groups are now increasingly targeting minerals needed for electric car batteries and clean energy technologies. This has led them to buy stakes in copper, cobalt and lithium assets in countries as far afield as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Serbia and Chile.

Dealogic的数据显示，2018年此类交易的价值超过70亿美元。目前中国企业正日益瞄准电动汽车电池和清洁能源技术所需的矿物资源。结果是，它们入股了远在刚果民主共和国、塞尔维亚和智利等国的铜、钴和锂资产。

The buying spree is in contrast to previous overseas forays that largely focused on acquiring steelmaking iron ore assets, which led spending to hit $17bn at the height of the last commodity boom a decade earlier.

这波收购热潮与之前的海外收购行动形成了对比。之前，中国企业的海外主要收购目标是炼钢用铁矿石资产，这在10年前大宗商品热潮时曾令收购金额达到170亿美元的顶峰。

Their largest acquisition last year was the $4.1bn purchase of a 24 per cent stake in Chilean lithium miner SQM by China’s Tianqi Lithium.

去年中国企业最大的一笔收购，是天齐锂业(Tianqi lithium)以41亿美元收购智利锂矿公司SQM 24%的股份。

This deal and others contrast with the more cautious approach by western mining companies such as Rio Tinto, Anglo American and BHP Billiton, which have resisted any large acquisitions reminiscent of that previous commodity boom that eventually led to $109bn of write-offs.

这宗交易以及其它交易，与力拓(Rio Tinto)、英美资源集团(Anglo American)和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)等西方矿业公司更为谨慎的态度形成了对比。这些公司拒绝进行任何让人联想到上一轮大宗商品热潮的大型收购，那一轮大宗商品热潮最终导致1090亿美元的资产减记。

It is a bifurcation that could have profound implications for who controls future supply of critical metals, which are expected to see surging demand over the next decade as sales of electric cars increase.

这种不同态度可能对未来谁会控制关键金属的供应产生深远影响。未来10年，随着电动汽车销量的增长，这些金属的需求预计将大幅上升。

“Who’s got their mitts on the fairest portion of the earth? It’s still Rio, Anglo American and BHP, but the current dynamic is making it harder and harder for the west to maintain that position in the face of an increasingly self-confident China,” said Paul Gait, analyst at Bernstein.

“地球上最主要的资源掌握在谁手中？目前仍是力拓、英美资源集团和必和必拓，但面对一个日益自信的中国，当前形势正让西方越来越难以保持这种地位，”伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)的分析师保罗•盖特(Paul Gait)说。

Fujian-based Zijin Mining, whose chairman Chen Jinghe made his name developing the company’s copper and gold mine in eastern Fujian province, has emerged as one of the country’s most acquisitive mining companies.

位于福建省的紫金矿业(Zijin Mining)已成为中国最具收购意愿的矿业公司之一。董事长陈景河因开发该公司位于福建东部的金铜矿而出了名。

Last year Zijin completed its $1.4bn acquisition of Canadian miner Nevsun Resources, which owns the Timok copper mine in Serbia and the Bisha copper and zinc mine in Eritrea.

去年，紫金矿业完成了以14亿美元收购加拿大矿商Nevsun Resources的交易。Nevsun拥有塞尔维亚的Timok铜矿和厄立特里亚的Bisha铜锌矿。

The Chinese miner’s offer in September was at a 57 per cent premium to Nevsun’s share price at the time, and was almost a third higher than a rival offer by Canada’s Lundin Mining. Zijin had also won over Serbian authorities by earlier agreeing to spend $1.26bn to buy a stake in a nearby smelter in return for a 63 per cent stake.

这家中国矿商去年9月的报价较Nevsun当时的股价溢价57%，比加拿大Lundin Mining的报价高了近三分之一。紫金矿业早些时候还同意斥资12.6亿美元收购Timok铜矿附近一家冶炼厂63%的股份，赢得了塞尔维亚当局的支持。

Zijin has surprised western bankers before with its ability to do deals. On the same day in May 2015 that it announced a partnership with Canada’s Barrick Gold, it also bought a stake in Canadian Ivanhoe Mines’s copper project in the Congo.

紫金矿业的交易能力以前就曾令西方银行家意外过。在2015年5月宣布与加拿大巴里克黄金公司(Barrick Gold)建立合作关系的同一天，该公司还收购了加拿大艾芬豪矿业(Ivanhoe Mines)刚果铜矿项目的部分股权。

“Not many entrepreneurs have his expertise and vision,” said a person who has dealt with Mr Chen.

一位与陈景河打过交道的人士说，“有他这样的专业知识和远见的企业家并不多。”

Also in September, China’s state-owned CITIC Metal paid C$723m, a 44 per cent premium, to become the largest shareholder in Ivanhoe Mines.

同样在那个9月，中国国企中信金属(CITIC Metal)以7.23亿加元（溢价44%）的价格，成为艾芬豪矿业的最大股东。

Ivanhoe is developing the Kamoa-Kakula copper deposit in the DRC, which Bernstein has said is the “single greatest discovery of copper in at least the last 30 years”. It also has exploration licences near the deposit, where it has also found copper.

艾芬豪矿业正在开发刚果民主共和国的Kamoa-Kakula铜矿床。伯恩斯坦公司曾表示，该矿床是“至少过去30年来最伟大的一次铜矿发现”。艾芬豪矿业也持有该矿床附近地区的勘探许可证，在那里也发现了铜矿。

“In the long term, considering the basic demand for copper from urbanisation in emerging economies and the additional demand from emerging industries such as electric cars and clean energy, there is more certainty in the outlook for the copper industry compared to other metals,” said Sun Yufeng, president of Citic Metal. “There is likely to be a deficit of copper around 2024.”

“从长远来看，考虑到新兴经济体城市化对铜的基本需求，以及电动汽车和清洁能源等新兴产业对铜的额外需求，铜业有着比其他金属更确定的前景，”中信金属总经理孙玉峰说，“在2024年前后，铜可能会出现短缺。”

Chinese companies are likely to continue their acquisition spree this year, according to bankers, especially in riskier countries such as the DRC. The Congo holds some of the richest resources of copper and cobalt in the world.

银行家们表示，中国企业今年可能会继续大举收购，尤其是在刚果民主共和国等风险较高的国家。该国拥有一些世界上储量最丰富的铜矿和钴矿。

Last week China Molybdenum, a miner backed by Chinese billionaire Yu Yong, spent $1.4bn to strengthen its control over a giant copper and cobalt mine in the DRC, following its initial purchase of a majority stake from US miner Freeport-McMoran for $2.65bn in 2016.

不久前，中国亿万富翁于泳为实际控制人的洛阳钼业(China Molybdenum)斥资14亿美元，加强了对刚果民主共和国一座巨型铜钴矿的控制。当初，洛阳钼业在2016年以26.5亿美元从美国矿商自由港迈克墨伦(Freeport-McMoRan)手中买下了该矿的多数股权。

“In this market it would be hard for a western mining house to be able to defend itself against buying something at the riskier end of the spectrum,” said John Tivey, a mining lawyer at White & Case in Melbourne.

“在这个市场上，一家西方矿业公司如果去收购风险更高的资产，将很难给出令人信服的解释，”墨尔本伟凯律师事务所(White & Case)的矿业律师约翰•蒂维(John Tivey)说。

“They would have a lot of trouble with their shareholder base. I think that contributes to why Chinese groups are able to be a little more strategic about their investments — they don’t have the overhand of activist shareholders.”

“他们在股东基础那里会遇到很多麻烦。我认为，这就是为什么中国企业能够在投资方面更具战略性——它们不会受到维权股东的干预。”

However, one sector where M&A activity looks set to increase for western miners is gold. On January 1, Barrick Gold completed its $6bn all stock merger with London-listed Randgold, while last week, US miner Newmont made a $10bn bid for rival Goldcorp.

然而，西方矿商似乎会增加并购活动的一个行业是黄金行业。1月1日，巴里克黄金(Barrick Gold)完成了与伦敦上市公司兰德黄金资源公司(Randgold Resources)规模60亿美元的全股票合并。不久前，美国矿商纽蒙特矿业(Newmont Mining)以100亿美元收购了竞争对手商加拿大黄金公司(Goldcorp)。

John Thornton, the chairman of Barrick , has also pledged to do more deals with Chinese partners such as Shandong Gold.

巴里克黄金董事长约翰•桑顿(John Thornton)也承诺，将与山东黄金(Shandong Gold)等中国合作伙伴开展更多交易。

Chinese miners are likely to be more competitive in deals where they can ultimately control the mine, rather than joint ventures, according to Richard Horrocks-Taylor, global head of metals and mining at Standard Chartered.

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)金属与矿业全球主管理查德•霍罗克斯-泰勒(Richard Horrocks-Taylor)表示，在最终能对矿产实现控股、而非合资的交易中，中国矿商有可能具有更大的竞争力。

Last year Chinese state-owned miners Minmetals and Chinalco lost out in bids for a 30 per cent stake in Teck Resources’s giant QB2 copper mine in Chile, which was bought by Japan’s Sumitomo for $1.2bn.

去年，中国国有矿商五矿集团(Minmetals)和中铝(Chinalco)竞购泰克资源(Teck Resources)智利QB2巨型铜矿30%的股权失利，这些股权被日本住友(Sumitomo)以12亿美元收入囊中。

“Our strong view is that the Chinese will continue to do deals. They will continue to be a key driver of M&A activity in the mining sector as the western diversified [miners] remain cautious,” said Mr Horrocks-Taylor.

“我们强烈认为，中国企业将继续进行收购。西方多元化（矿商）仍持谨慎态度，中国企业将继续充当采矿业并购活动的一支关键驱动力量，”霍罗克斯-泰勒说。

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Hydrogen power: China backs fuel cell technology

    中国发力扶持氢燃料电池

在借助补贴创造全球最大电动汽车市场、并在锂离子电池产业占据领先地位后，中国希望在氢燃料电池产业复制这一成就。

Stung by the impact of the financial crisis, the hilly city of Yunfu in China’s southern Guangdong province decided in 2009 it was time for a makeover. Known over hundreds of years for producing delicate stones for arts and crafts, the city had few modern industries apart from consumer appliances.

受到金融危机打击后，地处丘陵地带的中国广东省云浮市在2009年决定另辟蹊径。几百年来，这座城市以加工大理石闻名，除消费电器产品外几乎没有现代工业。

So officials decided to lop the top off the surrounding hills and build a 13.4 sq km industrial park focused on fuel cells — a rival technology to internal combustion engines and electric batteries.

当地官员们于是决定推平四周山丘，建造一座占地13.4平方公里、以燃料电池为核心的工业园区，这是一项与内燃发动机与蓄电池竞争的技术。

Attracted by generous government subsidies, a whole suite of companies covering the supply chain have now set up in the park, which is producing hundreds of buses and small trucks using fuel cells that run on hydrogen gas. So successful has it been that local officials now plan to flatten two more hills to create a neighbouring vehicle manufacturing plant and a chemicals facility.

在当地政府慷慨补贴的吸引下，覆盖整个供应链的一整套企业已在该园区落户，生产数以百计使用氢能的公共汽车和小型卡车。该工业园的成功让当地官员决定再推平两座山，在旁边建一家汽车制造厂和一家化工厂。

“When we moved here it was all barren hills,” says Frank Ma, chairman of Guangdong Nation Synergy Hydrogen Power Technology, walking along a line of bright blue fuel cell buses. “Your first impression [of the area] is that this is not the kind of place to do this kind of manufacturing. [But] this is a special kind of industry in China.”

广东国鸿氢能科技(Guangdong Nation Synergy Hydrogen Power Technology)董事长马东生(Frank Ma)说：“我们入驻时这里还是一片荒山。”他在一排蓝色的燃料电池公共汽车边上走过时表示：“这儿给人的第一印象并不是从事这类制造的地方。但这个产业本身在中国就是特殊的。”

The Yunfu park is the epitome of China’s powerful industrial policy — which is designed to use generous subsidies to develop and dominate emerging industries critical to the “Made in China 2025” shift to high-end manufacturing.

云浮这座工业园体现了中国强大的产业政策，该政策旨在利用慷慨补贴来发展乃至主导一些新兴产业，这些产业对《中国制造2025》(Made in China 2025)阐明的转向高端制造业的战略至关重要。

Beijing has spent an estimated $58.8bn subsidising its electric car industry over the past decade, according to the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, creating the world’s largest market for electric cars as well as a dominant position in batteries— surpassing Japan and South Korea. Subsidies have also helped propel Chinese solar makers into the ranks of the world’s largest producers, overtaking competitors in the US and Europe.

根据美国战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的数据，过去10年北京向国内电动汽车行业提供约588亿美元补贴，创造了全球最大电动汽车市场，并在电池领域取得主导地位，超过日本和韩国。补贴还助推中国太阳能制造商跻身全球最大生产商之列，超过美国和欧洲的竞争对手。

Now Beijing hopes to do the same for fuel cells — which along with electric vehicles could help decarbonise the entire transportation fleet and reduce China’s vast reliance on imported oil. While fuel cells are unlikely to compete with batteries for small passenger cars because of the latter’s continued reduction in costs, they could play a role in larger vehicles such as trucks and buses, as well as in ships and trains.

现在北京希望在燃料电池产业复制这一成就。燃料电池加上电动汽车有助于实现运输工具去碳化，并减少中国对进口石油的严重依赖。尽管燃料电池不太可能与小型乘用车的电池竞争（因为后者在不断降低成本），但它们可能在较大型车辆（如卡车和公共汽车）以及船舶和火车中发挥作用。

“If you look at what China did in solar, in wind and in battery electric vehicles the subsidy tap was opened and it brought a lot of capital and companies to these new markets, which resulted in China being the leader in all three of these segments,” says Randy MacEwen, chief executive of Canada’s Ballard Power, one of the world’s largest fuel cell manufacturers. “We expect to see something similar with the fuel cell industry.”

加拿大巴拉德动力(Ballard Power)是全球最大燃料电池制造商之一，该公司首席执行官麦凯文(Randy MacEwen)表示：“看看中国在太阳能、风能和电池电动汽车等行业打开补贴水龙头后发生了什么，补贴为这些新市场带来大量资本和企业，使中国成为所有这三个细分市场的领导者。我们预期燃料电池产业会出现类似局面。”

China’s rush into fuel cells could be an expensive gamble, however. The vehicles need to be able to compete without subsidies just as batteries are becoming ever cheaper, quicker to charge and able to hold more energy for the same amount of weight. Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has dismissed fuel cells and hydrogen as “mind-bogglingly stupid”.

然而中国大举进军燃料电池产业可能是一场昂贵的赌博。燃料电池车辆需要在即使没有补贴的情况下也具备竞争力，而目前电池越来越便宜，充电越来越快，而且在同等重量下能够存储更多电量。特斯拉(Tesla)首席执行官埃隆•马斯克(Elon Musk)对燃料电池和氢能不屑一顾，称这类技术“蠢得令人难以置信。”

                The drive for volume

        获得数量优势的动力

The power of China’s subsidy machine can be seen in the southern city of Shenzhen, which grew from a fishing village along the Sham Chun river that separates the mainland from Hong Kong into one of its most vibrant cities and home to some of its largest technology companies. Almost the entire taxi fleet uses electric cars made by hometown producer BYD, the world’s largest electric car manufacturer that is backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. The buses are also all electric.

南方城市深圳展示了中国“补贴机器”的力量。这座城市从内地与香港之间的界河——深圳河边的一个小渔村，发展成了中国最具活力的城市之一，中国几家最大科技公司的总部设在该市。深圳的出租车几乎全部是当地厂家比亚迪(BYD)生产的电动汽车，该公司是全球最大电动汽车制造商，投资者包括沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)。深圳的公共汽车也都是电动的。

Almost half of all battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles sold this year will be sold in China. Thanks to government rules that restricted domestic car companies from buying batteries from foreign producers, Chinese battery maker CATL has become the world’s largest producer, overtaking rivals LG Chem and Panasonic. Based in Ningde, in southeastern Fujian province, CATL this year signed deals to sell batteries to BMW and Daimler and announced plans to build a factory in Germany.

今年全球销售的所有电池和插电式混合动力汽车中，近一半将是在中国。得益于限制国内汽车公司向外国生产商购买电池的政府规定，中国电池厂商宁德时代(CATL)已成为全球最大的生产商，超越竞争对手LG化学(LG Chem)和松下(Panasonic)。宁德时代总部位于福建省宁德市，去年签约向宝马(BMW)和戴姆勒(Daimler)销售电池，并宣布计划在德国建厂。

Just as it was in batteries five years ago, China is a laggard in fuel cells, behind Japan and South Korea as well as the US and Europe. Toyota has consistently bet on the technology and launched its first fuel cell car, the Mirai, in late 2014, It sells for about £65,000. Hyundai’s Nexo fuel cell model goes on sale this year for a similar price.

就像五年前的电池产业一样，中国目前在燃料电池产业处于落后位置，不如日本、韩国、美国和欧洲。丰田(Toyota)一直在豪赌这项技术，于2014年末推出首款燃料电池车Mirai，售价约为6.5万英镑。现代(Hyundai)的燃料电池车Nexo将于今年上市，价格相仿。

To overcome that laggard status, Chinese companies last year began a concerted effort to acquire and integrate foreign technology. In May BYD announced it was working with the US Hybrid Corporation on a hydrogen-powered fuel cell bus to run in Honolulu airport. And in November Weichai Power, China’s largest state-owned diesel engine maker, spent $184m on a 20 per cent stake in Ballard. This month Weichai also paid £48m for a 20 per cent stake in UK-based fuel cell maker Ceres Power.

为了改变这种落后状态，中国企业去年发起收购和整合外国技术的协同努力。去年5月，比亚迪宣布与US Hybrid Corporation合作，为檀香山机场开发氢燃料电池巴士。去年11月，中国最大的国有柴油发动机制造商潍柴动力(Weichai Power)以1.84亿美元收购了巴拉德20%的股份。最近潍柴还以4800万英镑收购了英国燃料电池制造商Ceres Power 20%的股份。

Phil Caldwell, Ceres chief executive, says the size of the Chinese market was too big for his company to ignore. The company plans to transfer its technology to Weichai and jointly invest in a manufacturing facility in eastern Shandong province. The fuel cells will initially run on buses using compressed natural gas before the hydrogen infrastructure is built, he says.

Ceres首席执行官菲尔•考德威尔(Phil Caldwell)表示，中国市场规模太过庞大，以至于他的公司不能忽视这个市场。该公司计划把技术转让给潍柴，并在山东省联合投资建造一座制造厂。他称，在氢基础设施建成之前，燃料电池将首先用于公共汽车，使用压缩天然气。

“While we talk a lot about these technologies in Europe the Chinese government is actually pushing ahead,” Mr Caldwell says. “They can create the market and create the demand and drive these technologies down the cost curve.”

“我们在欧洲没完没了讨论这些技术的同时，中国政府在动真格，”考德威尔称，“他们能够创造市场，创造需求，压低这些技术的成本曲线。”

Ballard says its joint venture with Weichai will aim to make at least 2,000 fuel cells a year for commercial vehicles by 2021 — the largest planned deployment to date. The company says the total cost for customers to buy and operate a fuel cell bus will be the same as for a battery-driven vehicle by 2020.

巴拉德表示，其与潍柴成立的合资企业到2021年每年将为商用车生产至少2000个燃料电池——这是迄今最大规模的部署计划。该公司称，到2020年，客户购买和运行燃料电池公共汽车的总成本将与电池驱动型公共汽车的成本相同。

“If you look at the costs we’re [currently] at a premium [compared] to battery electric vehicles,” says Mr MacEwen. “What hasn’t happened yet in the fuel cell market is the power of volume. China is a market that has proven that with subsidies they will drive production capacity and volume and see significant cost reductions.”

“如果你看一下成本，我们（目前）的成本要高于电池电动车，”麦凯文表示，“燃料电池市场尚未形成数量上的力量。中国市场已经证明，借助补贴，他们将提高产能和产量，并大幅降低成本。”

            Making 2m vehicles

    制造200万辆燃料电池汽车

Benny Oeyen, a former executive for General Motors in Shanghai, stands next to a fuel cell bus made by Feichi Bus in Yunfu and watches the water come out of the exhaust pipe.

通用汽车(General Motors)上海前高管本尼•博埃延(Benny Oeyen)站在由云浮市飞驰客车(Feichi Bus)生产的一辆燃料电池公共汽车旁边，看着水从排气管流出。

“I think this is the answer to the energy challenge of mankind,” says Mr Oeyen, now head of market development for platinum group metals at Anglo American. “It’s no longer pie-in-the-sky PowerPoint presentations.”

“我认为这是解决人类面临的能源挑战的答案，”博埃延表示，“这不再是可望不可及的PPT演示。”他现在是英美资源集团(Anglo American)铂族金属市场开发主管。

All told, China will have spent about Rmb85bn ($12.4bn) on supporting fuel cell powered vehicles last year, in a mix of national and local subsidies. The technology received high-level support in October when Wan Gang, a former minister of science and technology who is considered the father of China’s push into electric cars, said “the next era belongs to fuel cell technology”.

总体而言，中国去年以国家补贴和地方补贴相结合的形式，支出约850亿元人民币（合124亿美元）支持燃料电池动力汽车。去年10月，这项技术得到了高层支持，被视为中国电动汽车大发展推手的原科技部部长万钢当时称，“下一阶段将是燃料电池大显身手的时代”。

While Chinese subsidies for battery electric vehicles are expected to be phased out by 2020 they will continue for fuel cells to at least 2025, according to some in the industry.

据一些业内人士称，尽管中国对电池电动汽车的补贴预计到2020年将逐步取消，但对燃料电池的补贴将至少持续到2025年。

The money has helped China reach its annual target of 5,000 fuel cell vehicles two years early — around the same number of vehicles as California. Industry participants say China could hit a target of 2m fuel cell vehicles by 2030, about 5 per cent of the total vehicle fleet.

这些资金已帮助中国提前两年前实现了年产5000辆燃料电池汽车的目标——与美国加州的燃料电池汽车数量大致相同。业内人士表示，到2030年，中国可能达到200万辆燃料电池汽车的目标，约占汽车总保有量的5%。

Under the current scheme, manufacturers of fuel cell vehicles are guaranteed to make a profit. They can receive as much as $30,000 from the central government per vehicle — provided it is driven at least 20,000km and meets minimum power requirements. They can also receive a local government subsidy that varies by region.

根据现行安排，燃料电池汽车制造商稳赚不赔。只要一辆车至少行驶2万公里并满足最低功率要求，其制造商就能从中央政府获得3万美元。他们还可能获得地方政府补贴，不同地区的补贴金额不同。

“With the current subsidies the producer of the fuel cell bus is making money from day one,” says Mark Sun, head of marketing in Asia for Anglo American Platinum, which is looking to boost demand for platinum through its use in fuel cells.

英美资源铂族金属亚洲营销负责人孙国江(Mark Sun)表示：“现行补贴意味着，燃料电池公共汽车的制造商从第一天就开始赚钱。”该公司正寻求通过铂在燃料电池中的用途来提振其需求。

The subsidies have prompted a host of Chinese companies to start producing fuel cell vehicles, including the country’s largest car manufacturer, SAIC Motor, and its largest electric bus maker, Yutong Bus. Yu Yi, head of fuel cell research at SAIC, says that when the company reaches a target of 10,000 fuel cell vehicles the “costs can be reduced substantially”.

这些补贴促使大批中国企业开始生产燃料电池汽车，其中包括中国最大的汽车制造商上汽集团(SAIC Motor)以及中国最大的电动巴士制造商宇通客车(Yutong Bus)。上汽燃料电池研究主管余毅（音）表示，当该公司达到1万辆燃料电池汽车的产量目标时，“成本就会大幅降低”。

State-owned companies have also started to build hydrogen refuelling stations, with China Energy, the country’s largest power company, building one of the country’s biggest in the city of Rugao in eastern Jiangsu province.

国有企业也开始建造加氢站。中国最大的电力公司——国家能源集团(China Energy)在江苏省的如皋市建造了中国最大的加氢站之一。

The price of hydrogen is also heavily subsidised, often making it cheaper than diesel.

中国还大力补贴氢燃料的价格，使之往往比柴油更便宜。

                  Metal matters

            金属很重要

Fuel cells have a number of advantages for China. They can help reduce the country’s reliance on imported energy as well as raw materials. While lithium-ion batteries require a host of metals such as cobalt, lithium and nickel, most fuel cells only require platinum, of which there is an abundant supply, as a catalyst, at a level of around 0.5 to 0.6 grammes per kilowatt.

对中国而言，燃料电池有很多优势。它们可以帮助中国减少对进口能源和原材料的依赖。锂离子电池需要钴、锂、镍等多种金属，而大多数燃料电池只需要供应充足的铂作为催化剂，每千瓦的铂用量约为0.5至0.6克。

“In terms of resource adequacy, it’s a lot easier to see how you do it for fuel cells than for lithium-ion batteries,” says Paul Gait, an analyst at Bernstein. “If you go to the northern rim of the Bushveld [in South Africa] there’s enough platinum to electrify the entire auto fleet.”

伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析师保罗•盖特(Paul Gait)表示：“就资源充足程度而言，燃料电池比锂离子电池更易于搞定。如果你去（南非）布什维尔德的北部边缘，那里的铂储量足以让所有汽车电气化。”

China may also have a solution for being self-sufficient in hydrogen. While most hydrogen is created from fossil fuels such as methane and used in the refining and chemical industries, another method is to produce it using electricity to split water, a process known as electrolysis. This process is not an efficient use of energy, but it makes sense when the cost of electricity is free.

中国也有办法实现氢能自给自足。尽管大部分氢来自甲烷等化石燃料，被用于炼油和化工行业，但另一种方法是利用电解水制氢。这一过程的能源效率不高，但如果电不花钱就有意义了。

Beijing’s huge investment in renewable energy over the past decade has caused a lot of electricity to be wasted, since intermittent wind and solar power cannot be properly integrated into the grid. China can use some of that wasted energy to generate hydrogen cheaply, says Nick Ni, general manager of Nantong Angstrom Renewable.

过去10年，中国政府在可再生能源方面的巨额投资造成了大量电能被浪费，因为间歇性的风能和太阳能电力无法正常送入电网。南通安思卓新能源有限公司(Nantong Angstrom Renewable)首席运营官倪海宁(Nick Ni)表示，中国可以利用这些被浪费的能源，以较低成本生产氢。

It is estimated that around 150 gigawatts of renewable energy generating capacity is wasted in China every year because it cannot be integrated into the grid. That could be used to power 18m passenger cars, says Ju Wang, deputy secretary-general of the International Hydrogen Fuel Cell Association. “China does not need to worry about hydrogen supply.”

据估计，由于无法送入电网，中国每年约有150吉瓦的可再生能源发电装机容量被浪费。国际氢燃料电池协会(International Hydrogen Fuel Cell Association)副秘书长王菊表示，这些电能可以用来为1800万辆乘用车提供动力。“中国不需要担心氢供应。”

Despite this optimism, fuel cells will face fierce competition from batteries, given the amount of money that is going into that sector. The global battery market is expected to increase 10-fold by mid-century to $500bn, according to Bernstein Research, with costs expected to fall to parity with petrol engines by 2023. That is without any government subsidy. Carmakers from Tesla to Daimler have also launched electric trucks that will compete with fuel cells.

尽管有这种乐观情绪，但考虑到投入电动车电池行业的资金数量，燃料电池将面临动力电池的激烈竞争。伯恩斯坦研究公司预计，到本世纪中叶，全球电池市场规模将扩大10倍，达到5000亿美元；到2023年，其成本预计将降至与汽油发动机相当的水平。这已刨除了政府补贴。从特斯拉到戴姆勒，各大汽车制造商也都推出了将与燃料电池竞争的电动卡车。

“It gets more difficult for fuel cells — it’s not a matter of catch-up, it’s catching up with something that’s moving ahead of you all the time,” says Peter Harrop, chairman of consultancy IDTechEx. “China is backing all horses just in case.”

咨询公司IDTechEx董事长彼得•哈罗普(Peter Harrop)表示：“燃料电池的日子将更加难过——这不是追赶的问题，而是追赶不断跑赢你的技术的问题。中国正在支持所有技术，就为了以防万一。”

Sceptics also warn that China’s push into fuel cells could end up repeating its experience with electric cars, where government spending has created huge amounts of production without making sure there is real demand. There are more than 100 domestic electric vehicle makers in the Chinese market.

怀疑论者还警告，中国在燃料电池领域的努力可能最终重蹈电动汽车的覆辙，即政府补贴催生了巨大产能，却不去确保存在真正的需求。目前中国市场上有100多家本土电动汽车制造商。

“Can we identify electric car and fuel cell producers that will survive the inevitable consolidation? At some point there will be a war of attrition, and I’m not clear how they are going to go about that,” says Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at CSIS.

战略与国际研究中心高级顾问斯科特•肯尼迪(Scott Kennedy)表示：“我们能确定哪些电动汽车和燃料电池制造商将在不可避免的行业整合中生存下来吗？到了某个时间点，会有一场消耗战，我不清楚他们将如何对付。”

Mr Ma in Yunfu is hesitant when asked if he can survive without subsidies. “Subsidy dependence is hard to get rid of,” he says. Adding that if the whole experiment fails “the best fuel-cell vehicles are still scrap metal”.

当被问及没有补贴能否生存时，国鸿氢能科技的马东生有些犹豫。“很难摆脱对补贴的依赖，”他表示。他补充说，如果整个试验失败，“最好的燃料电池汽车也是废铁”。

But he insists that once his company can produce more than 100,000 fuel cells stacks a year, up from the current 2,000, its buses should be competitive against battery-powered rivals.

但他坚称，一旦他的公司能从目前每年2000个燃料电池堆的产量提高到每年10万个，其巴士就应该能与电池驱动的巴士竞争。

“I said to the Guangdong government, if you can purchase 100,000 vehicles I can give you a price 30 per cent lower than electric vehicles,” Mr Ma says. “Our target from the first day was to survive beyond government subsidy and support. Our goal is to keep costs down and completely commercialise.

马东生表示：“我对广东省政府说，如果你们能采购10万辆，我可以给你们一个比电动汽车低30%的价格。从第一天起，我们的目标就是要在不依靠政府补贴和支持的情况下生存下去。我们的目标是降低成本，实现完全商业化。”

“The government has given a promise to the world that we have to reduce pollution,” he adds.

“中国政府已经向世界承诺，我们必须减少污染。”他补充道。 

  延伸阅读—2019黄金投资逻辑

穿金戴银一直是中国富贵的象征，特别是一到过年，黄金的需求都会上升，再加上买涨不买跌的投资心理，黄金成为今年春节的热销商品。足金999的价格从之前的每克345元上涨至353元，很多商场黄金柜台前，基本都是人山人海。大家的消费主要围绕着生肖猪挂件，或者手链为主。

中国大妈抢黄金，这不是什么新闻了，早在2011年就出现过，当时黄金的价格接近了2000美元一盎司，那会中国大妈拳打投机商人，脚踢华尔街大鳄，抢黄金都抢到了香港，但就在大妈们疯狂抢黄金的3年后，黄金价格却一路下跌，跌幅达到一半，2015年底黄金价格跌倒了接近1000美元的位置，之后也是长期在底部徘徊，直到现在纽约金也才只有1318美元，2011年抢黄金的大妈们，仍然被在套在高位。而且解套遥遥无期。

其实说大妈们投资黄金确实有点牵强，有点投资知识的都知道，第一黄金本来就不是投资品，只是避险交易品，第二黄金首饰更没有任何的投资价值，根本就是个彻头彻尾的消费品。所以，无论大妈们怎么想的，反正这事还真跟投资没有半毛钱关系，顶多算是一个美好的愿望。

那么有人问了，黄金价格的走势到底看什么？这个就太复杂了？黄金是整个世界货币体系，乃至世界经济体系的对手盘，不光是受到美元影响，还受到需求以及突发事件的影响。

首先，从需求来看，确实有个好消息，2018年的黄金总需求达到了4345吨，比2017年增加了4%，主要购买黄金的力量，也根本不是中国大妈，而是各国的央行，他们购买黄金的总量增长了74%，之所以这么做，并不一定就是各国央行看好黄金，主要是因为便宜，2018年的前三季度，黄金价格一直在下跌，10月份之后才开始反弹，而现在其实价格也只恢复到2018年4月的水平。

其次，美元在2018年走势，也是上半年涨势比较猛，9月之后基本就在96点附近停滞不前，美元不涨了，黄金的做空动力就消失了，所以各国央行一增持，黄金价格也就涨起来了。

第三，美国的货币政策恐有变化，昨天我们已经说过了，未来美国加息势头，极有可能会放缓，而美国经济也可能减速，这都对黄金构成利好。美元弱下来，经济慢下来，避险资金就会去找黄金了。

总之，现在黄金价格的上涨在缓慢进行中，总体来看还是缺少催化剂，也就是说爆发性的事件，每一次黄金上涨其实都是巨大的担忧，引发的后果，比如最典型的就是2007年的次贷危机，当时大家觉得美国完了，所以黄金价格才会开启大牛市。甚至2016年的那波反弹，也是担心英国脱欧之后，欧盟从此解体，所以黄金一度涨了40%，而世界和平，繁荣发展之后，大家就不会再喜欢黄金了。他的流动性比较低，而且没有任何的孳息能力，用巴菲特的话说，大黄金自己不会下小黄金，所以他根本不能算是投资。因为黄金根本不产生现金流。只是一个配置工具，和避险工具，当你发现没有什么可投资的时候，所有资产都已经高估了，或者你发现经济过热了，这时候才应该超配黄金，进行避险，因为按照经济周期理论，繁荣过后必然会带来衰退和萧条，朱格拉就说过萧条的唯一原因就是繁荣。而在萧条之中，黄金价格才有可能上涨。他可以有效的保护你的资产，平衡你的配置。比如按照我们经典的配置组合，债5股4商品1的配置比例，即便在2007年那样的大熊市当中，你的资产损失也会在10%以内，这其中1成的黄金和原油的配置，起到了关键的作用。如果没有这个配置，你的资产损失可能会扩大到20%。这对于心里的冲击，将大很多？

那么黄金该怎么买呢？最好通过黄金期货，或者黄金ETF连接基金进行配置，再次是银行的纸黄金，最次是实物投资金条，至于黄金首饰，那根本就是瞎胡闹，属于消费范畴，根本没什么回收途径。另外，特别提醒，黄金股票算是股票资产而不是黄金资产，黄金股票的上涨是要靠业绩预期推动，虽然跟金价有很强的关系，但跟股市的关系也不小。也经常会出现金价大涨，但股票下跌的情况。

黄金一把买入或者定投都是可以的，现在这种情况，可以一把买入。但仍然不要超过你总配置的10%，还是那个原因，黄金在90%的时间都是没机会的，只有在10%的时间才会表现，所以你持有黄金的比例过高，就会丧失掉效率。老齐在知识星球里经常跟各位小伙伴们说，买黄金首先要端正心态，你的目的只是避险，而不要想赚钱，我们的投资组合中，只有股票是进攻手段，属于前锋，债券和黄金都是防御手段，债券是后卫，而黄金是守门员，只有在万不得已的情况下，黄金才会出来保命。但在很多人的球队里，没有后卫也没有守门员，即便你的前锋能力再强，进了对方10个，后面丢掉11个，你也还是会输掉比赛。