美国的学者挺逗,他们最近得出这么一个结论:The rate of women becoming pregnant begins to fall several months before the start of a recession,总之,fertility rates might help predict economic downturns。美国的学者不仅把经济走向和人们生孩子的意愿捆绑到了一起,并且还提出这个风向标比之前的那些都靠谱,之前那些既复杂又不准确,such as manufacturing output, retail spending and house prices。
这些疯狂的学者是如何展开调查的呢?The authors of Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator? tracked more than 100 million births in the United States between 1989 and 2016.
其实,经济下调的时候出生率随之降低无可厚非,但这次研究的重点是经济衰退前期,conception rates drop several months before other signs of a recession become visible,这一点非常关键。
非常典型的一个案例就是07-09年的经济危机,在经济危机前期,首先我们来看一下商界精英的预测,a poll of business leaders found they were optimistic about the future, 然后我们再来看一下妈妈们生孩子的意愿,the growth in conception rates had already been falling for several months, with the decline starting several quarters before the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers。由此可见,妈妈们生孩子的意愿的确和一些经济问题相关联。
此外,人们到底有多不想生孩子也可以预测出之后的经济危机有多大规模。
就这个问题,该研究将最近几十年的几次经济危机前的生育率进行了对比,fertility sank more rapidly (by four percentage points) before the deeper 2007 recession than in the run up to the two previous dips in the early 90s and the early 2000s。07-09年经济危机前的生育率大幅降低确实说明了一些问题。
该研究还提出了替代性指标--母婴产品,这是由于生育率的测算并非易事,所以,proxy data such as the sale of fertility and pregnancy-related goods could be monitored。
此外,还有一点需要注意,生育率的下降并非只有经济危机前期才会出现,07-09年经济危机的后期,was dubbed a "jobless recovery" and a "baby-less recovery."
一些单词:
pregnant 怀孕的
recession / economic downturn 经济衰退
fertility rate/ conception rate 出生率
manufacturing output 制造业产量
retail spending 消费(零售)
track 追踪
visible 能够看到的
poll 民意调查
Bear Stearns 贝尔斯登(美国投资银行)
Lehman Brothers 雷曼兄弟(美国第四大投资银行,现已破产)
sank 沉陷(sink的过去式)
proxy data 替代性指标
monitor 监控
dub 予以******称号
欢迎大家收藏微信公众号Lucy的理想国,或者查找微信号LUCYANDABC。
网友评论