The Basic Logic of Art of War’s 

Good evening, everybody!

I am Sam Hua, and It’s my pleasure to share my book, "Sun Tzu's Art of War - A Modern Exposition" with you here at NUS. My English is not particularly good, and I have really spent a lot of time preparing for this talk. However, I still could only complete the presentation part and when it comes to Q&A, I will ask Mr Tan to translate for me. Thank you for your understanding.

My book was published in China, 2015, and then published in Korea, Thailand and UK. The total sales exceeded 1 million copies, so, it’s the international bestseller.

There are 2 major books written on warfare. One of them is the Art of War by Sun Tzu and the other is On War by 18th Century Prussian(ˈprʌʃən) Strategist Carl von Clausewitz(‘klou-zuh-vits). Even though On War was written 2700 years after Art of War, Liddell Hart, a modern British military theorist said: Compared to Art of War, On War is dated(ˈdeɪtɪd). This is Art of War’s position in the history of military theory.

The topic of my talk today is "The Basic Logic of Art of War’s 13 chapters". Yes, There are 13 chapters in the book, and like most books on warfare（ˈwɔːrfer）, strategy is covered first, which is followed by tactics and skills.

The first four chapters deal with the principles of strategy, chapters five to seven cover the principles of tactics, and eight to eleven focus on different terrains and the technical points of marching, camping(ˈkæmpɪŋ) scouting(ˈskaʊtɪŋ) and so on, chapter 12, deal with the use of fire as a weapon, and the last one, chapter 13, the use of spies（/spaɪz）.

I’ve summed up the ideas of Sun Tzu's book in one sentence: "Master your own business and you’ll never lose’. Sound like Chicken Soup for the Soul, doesn’t it? But this is Sun Tzu's Art of War! Shouldn’t the focus be on the battle against the enemy, and not yourself? That's why I always say that if the whole world understands the Art of War, there would be no more wars.

The central ideas of Art of War can be summarized in 3 parts:

1) Art of War is not about how to wage a war, but how not to engage in war.

2) Art of War is not about how to win a war, but how to reinforce(ˌriːɪnˈfɔːrs) yourself against defeat.

3) Art of War is not about how to win a battle, but the theory of winning before fighting.

The first thing Sun Tzu tells you is not to wage war, because once you start, things get out of your control. Just like the current situation in Europe, if you don't start a war, everything will be fine; if you do it, there will be no way to see the light at the end of the tunnel(ˈtʌn(ə)l).

The second thing is that you shouldn’t always think about defeating the enemy, just like we always want to talk about defeating our competitors in business, in fact, your competition is not something that you can defeat. There is no one that you can beat, everyone's defeat is their own defeat. Just like Apple and ‘Nokia, Apple didn't beat Nokia because he didn't attack Nokia at all, it was Nokia itself that lost due to their own mistakes. If Nokia had not made these mistakes, Apple wouldn’t have been able to defeat them.

Is it a low aspiration(/ˌæspəˈreɪʃ(ə)n) to go undefeated instead of aiming(/ˈeɪmɪŋ) for victory? I don't think so. For example, when Warren Buffett talks about investing, he gives 2 pieces of advice. Rule number 1 don’t lose your capital, rule number 2. Follow rule number 1. Since he has been investing for 50 years and hasn’t lost his capital every single year, which is a lifetime of being undefeated. The ‘cumulative (ˈkjuːmjəleɪtɪv) victory would be large. When you invest in stocks, everyone has caught big bulls, all have had huge ‘victories, but often one failure(ˈfeɪljər) and you would have lost everything. That's why it's important to be undefeated.

Ladies and gentlemen, I’d like to share with you my realm(/relm) of life, which is to be never defeated in our lifetime, that is the real art of war.

Now, I'll talk specifically(spəˈsɪfɪkli) about the 13 chapters of Sun Tzu's Art of War.

Chapter 1. JI, calculations

The first chapter is called "Ji" in Chinese. Even most Chinese people get the first word wrong in their understanding of The Art of War, and the translators are included. They think JI is just about stratagems. Because there is another ancient Chinese book on warfare(ˈwɔːrfer) called 36JI, or in English 36 stratagems. But they are not really stratagems, they are more like ploys(plɔɪz), they are 36 big ideas to deceive your enemy. But in Art of War, Ji means to calculate.

This is an issue in the Chinese language, particularly in traditional Chinese. Ji has 3 meanings(ˈmɪnɪŋz), one is ideas, second is plans, and the third is calculations. Why do people regard it as ideas? Because everyone wishes to have a great idea, and a book like Art of War may have a lot of great ideas, more than 36, that’s why we read it. But the first thing I’d like to share with you is, these ideas are not important in Art of War. And I’m not a big fan of the book 36 “Ji”. I don’t like it!

As I said just now, Art of War teaches us to avoid wars, not fight in them. Because a war has great risks, when we think about waging a war, we must calculate if we can win. If we are sure we will win, we may do it; If we are not sure, don’t do it. This is the main idea behind chapter one.

By the logic, first question, do, or not to do; second, the plan on how to do; and the third, is the great idea. By the logic, the great idea is actually not crucial(ˈkruːʃ(ə)l).

Napoleon also spoke about this calculation, saying that it was a mathematical(ˌmæθəˈmætɪk(ə)l) problem that even Isaac(ˈaɪzək) ‘Newton would have struggled with. What would Sun Tzu's attitude have been towards this exceedingly difficult mathematical problem? I think he would have said, "Since you find it difficult, it proves that the chances(tʃɑnsiz) of winning are not obvious. If it is not obvious, don't fight.

In business, there is a term called risk appetite(/ˈæpɪtaɪt). Sun Tzu's appetite for risk was very low. Napoleon's appetite for risk, on the other hand, was obviously much higher.

Ladies and gentlemen, think about your own risk appetite, my risk appetite is very low. If your risk appetite is low, you will like the book, Sun Tzu’s Art of War. If you are a person with a high-risk appetite, you don’t really need to learn from Art of War.

Sun Tzu's calculations. What are the calculations? The calculations make comparisons kəmˈpærəsnz) between us and the enemy in five aspects(ˈæspekts). These five aspects are the Tao, Heaven, the Geography, the General and the legal system.

First, the Tao. Tao is one of the most important words in Chinese culture, means the law of things, and the moral law. In the book, Sun Tzu only uses one sentence to explain the Tao, He said:"The Tao is to make the people agree with the Lord." This means that if the whole nation supports the war, you have the Tao. So, Tao means unity. There is another saying in Sun Tzu's Art of War, "Success (Sak-ses) comes when leaders and followers share the same goal.” Entrepreneurs (ɑːntrəprəˈnɜːr s) should learn the first idea of Sun Tzu's Art of War, which is to have the staff and the boss align(əˈlaɪn) in one mind, this is the first principle of the art of business.

The second is heaven. Heaven is the time, the era(ˈɪrə), the trend, the international and domestic(dəˈmestɪk) situation. Dr. Sun Yat-sen, the father of the Chinese nation, had a saying: "The global trends are immense(ɪˈmens); those who follow them will prosper(/ˈprɑːspər), those who go against them will perish(/ˈperɪʃ)." This is heaven.

For me, my heaven is the reform and opening-up of China. Without this heaven, I wouldn’t be here, no matter how clever I am, how many great ideas I have, and how familiar I am with Art of War.

The third is geography. It’s the geographical (dʒiːəˈɡræfɪk(ə)l) location, and whether it is beneficial(benɪˈfɪʃ(ə)l) to you. Chinese history has the Southern and Northern Dynasties, which was formed when the regime(reɪˈʒiːm) in the Central Plains was defeated and fled to the south, The Yangtze River protected them. So, The Yangtze River was their geographical advantage.

The fourth are the generals, Generals are people; look at the commanding generals on both sides of a war, and who is better.

The fifth is the "legal system", which is to see if your military law and your military discipline(ˈdɪsəplɪn) is effective, and is about the army's ability to organize, manage, and command.

Once you have compared these five ‘aspects, you will be able to "foresee the victory”. I’d like to translate it directly to, “Know win”. In other words. you can calculate beforehand whether you have a chance of winning, but if you don't, you shouldn’t force it.

Anyone who knows Chinese history and culture knows about the Romance(ˈroʊmæns) of the Three Kingdoms. Zhuge Liang, who was the role model of Chinese military stratagems, yet, with all his stratagems, he still lost, and this is a matter of calculation. If you calculate it by the way Sun Tzu talks about, his rival(ˈraɪv(ə)l), Sima Yi, outsmarted him.

Let's do some calculations and make a comparative(kəmˈpærətɪv) analysis of the 3 kingdoms, Wei, Shu and Wu:

First, Calculating the "Tao", are the Shu people willing to fight? No! The group of Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang were only outsiders to the people of Shu, but the people of Shu participated(pɑːˈtɪsɪpeɪtɪd) in a war to "restore the Han dynasty". It can be said that the local people were not willing to engage in a war but were simply held hostage(ˈhɑːstɪdʒ) by them.

Secondly, Heaven, the big situation, Wei had a population of over 5 million and 600,000 troops; Wu had over 2 million people and 200,000 troops; Zhuge Liang's Shu had a population of less(les) than 1 million and less than 100,000 troops. The comparison(kəmˈpærɪsn) of Wei's strength against Shu was 6 to 1, which means Shu has no chance of victory at all.

Thirdly, geography, Shu was a basin(ˈbeɪs(ə)n) in south-western China, and to attack Wei in the north, they had to cross the great Qinling Mountains, so how could they get through? In fact, he couldn’t cross if Wei was ‘organizing its defenses. For it was much easier to defend than to attack, and this was the ‘outcome of every expedition(ˌekspəˈdɪʃ(ə)n) Zhuge Liang made. He was only fighting for a dream, and it was just a dream, there was never any chance of victory.

There was another fundamental problem, food, the calculation of food. Every time he started a war, Zhuge Liang had to prepare two- or three-years’ worth of grain, and then when he got there if he couldn't fight for several months, he had to retreat. Why? Because if he didn't retreat, there would be no food left to come back and the whole army would starve to death there.

Sima Yi, even if he was allowed(əˈlaʊd) to have food for as long as he could, he didn't fight and hung up his war banner high. Zhuge Liang even gave him women's clothes to provoke him into fighting, yet Sima Yi just wouldn't fight. In the end, at the Wuzhang Plain, Sima Yi still hung up his banner, and Zhuge Liang died of depression in his camp.

Therefore, the "Ji" in Sun Tzu's Art of War is not Zhuge Liang's clever ploys, but a calculated strategy, or what we can now call a SWOT analysis(əˈnæləsɪs). Its calculations of the strengths(streŋkθs), weaknesses, opportunities and threats of us and our competitors.

Zhuge Liang, I don’t think he is a VIP in Chinese history, and I regard him as a VIP in Chinese culture. He is famous just because of the 3 kingdoms story. and the author of the book, Luo guanzhong was actually a VIP in history, because he built the Chinese culture.

To sum up the central idea of the first chapter of Art of War, "Before fighting, calculate the SWOT analysis of you and your competitors, and if you can't win, don't fight." Therefore, I’d like to say, The Art of War is primarily(praɪˈmerəli) the Art of peace.

2、Waging war

The topic of the chapter 2 is waging war, but in fact this chapter is not about how to fight, but about the cost of war. Sun Tzu said that if you want to send out an army of hundreds and thousands of men, chariots(ˈtʃæriəts), wagons(ˈwæɡəns) and so on, and transport food and supplies(səˈplaɪz) to the front-line hundreds or thousands of kilometers away, there will be a lot of expenses.

Therefore, the first chapter says that before starting a war, you must first calculate whether you can win or not; if you are not sure of winning, you shouldn’t start a war. In the second chapter, it says that even if you are sure of winning, you do not have to fight because you may not be able to afford the war. The second chapter is still a calculation, a calculation of the cost of the war.

War is fought(fɔːt) not only with soldiers and weapons, but also with money and food. What does Sun Tzu mean when he says that a wise general tries to rob(rɑːb) the enemy of as much grain as possible to eat, and that having one cartload(ˈkɑːrtloʊd) of grain from the enemy is equivalent(ɪˈkwɪvələnt) to twenty carts for himself? This is the cost of transporting goods 500 kilometers across the plains. The cost of each single cart of grain transported is twenty carts.

One of the emperors(ˈempərərs) who waged the most wars in Chinese history, Emperor Wu of Han, or known as Han Wu Di. He spent a lot of resources fighting the barbarians (bɑrˈberɪəns) in south-western China, because it was too far and his army had to cross a lot of mountains, the cost of transportation was 120 to 1.

Han Wu Di was so keen on expanding his territory(ˈterətɔːri), so he waged countless wars, when he was finished, not only was his treasury(ˈtreʒəri) empty, but also all Chinese people, every family, went broke.

I’d like to tell you a terrible story. At that time, only men pay taxes, the law was you must start paying taxes at the age of 16. But during the reign(reɪn) of Han Wu di, he adjusted the taxation(/tækˈseɪʃn) age to 3! Do you know what happened after that? People killed their infant(ˈɪnfənt) sons to avoid paying their taxes. By the time of his death, the population at that time was cut from 50 million to 30 million. In his wars, Han Wu Di destroyed his enemies, but He also destroyed China.

Before his death, Han Wu Di knew he was wrong, and his whole life had failed. he wanted to repent for his actions, he released an im’perial(ɪmˈpɪriəl) ‘edict(ˈiːdɪkt) to admit his wrong doings.

History should have determined the merits(ˈmerɪts) and demerits of Han Wu Di. But the people soon forgot the great suffering he brought to China and he was revered as "Han Wu Di the Great", an additional title added to his name, compared to his grandfather and father, the emperors who really brought prosperity(prɑːˈsperəti) and happiness to the Chinese people. Why did the people respect him, but not his father or grandfather? I can only explain it in the words of the French literary giant Victor Hugo: "The cannon fodder (ˈkænən fɒdə(r), always idolize(ˈaɪdəlaɪz) the cannoneer.” (kænəˈnɪə)

Now we come back to the cost of the war, it’s so expensive, even Han Wu Di the Great couldn’t afford it. So, as clever as you are, you should figure out a way to cut the cost. I’d like to tell you about two clever guys, one is Genghis Khan(ˌɡeŋɡɪs ˈkɑːn), and another is Napoleon Bonaparte.

How was Genghis Khan able to fight all the way to Europe? Because he reduced the cost of the transportation of food to zero.

The Chinese army was powered by grain; whereas the Mongolian army was nomadic(noʊˈmædɪk), and didn't eat grain, they feasted on cattle (Oxen, sheep and so on). They could bring their cattle along with them, their food can march with them and continue to bear new food for them.

Genghis Khan cut the cost of the food, whereas Napoleon cut the cost of soldier’s life. Before Napoleon, Wars in Europe had nothing to do with the common people, they were king’s war, fought by the armies of the nobility(noʊˈbɪləti), and soldiers of fortune, followed the king's army, and it was expensive to fight in this way. If thousands of soldiers were killed in one battle, they might not be able to recover for years.

But then, in 1793, the French National Convention issued a decree(dɪˈkriː) for universal conscription(kənˈskrɪpʃ(ə)n), which brought in a new era(ˈɪrə) of war in Europe, called People's war. A people's war meant that everyone was conscripted, young men were sent to the battlefield, and the elders, women and children must work to support the war. This decree turned the whole country into war volunteers and reduced the cost of human life to zero. That is why at the time Napoleon was so smug（smʌɡ） to say, "Now in Europe, human life is as cheap as dust." The King's side included soldiers of fortune, an aristocratic(əˌrɪstəˈkrætɪk) army, and Napoleon was a revolutionary ‘conscript.

The cost of human life is a key factor in war, and it is the same today. Some countries profess military powers, but in fact they are not strong in anything, except the price of their people’s life is cheap. The ruler doesn’t care how many his people died. The cost of human life is low because their political system is barbaric(bɑːrˈbærɪk).

The history of humankind, say historians, is the history of barbarism(ˈbɑːrbərɪzəm) conquering civilization and then being assimilated(əˈsɪməleɪtɪd) by civilization. One of the main reasons civilized nations cannot defeat barbaric nations is the difference in the cost of human life. Sun Tzu's Art of War also has a saying, "If you must live, you can be captured." If you must live and must not die, then you will have to be a slave.

In summary, the central idea behind chapter 2 is the cost of war. If you can win a war, but don’t have the resources to afford it, then don’t do it.’

3、Planning your assaults(əˈsɔːlts)

Next up, I will talk about chapter 3, Planning your assaults.

In Art of War, Sun Tzu always said don’t do it. In chapter 1, if you could not win, don’t do it. In chapter 2, maybe you can win, but you couldn’t afford it, don’t do it. Now we come to chapter 3, you will win, and you can afford it, but Sun Tzu said: “wait a minute, think, think, and think, maybe you can figure out another plan, you can get what you want without waging a war. “

As you can see, Sun Tzu is really remarkable, most generals are keen to take part in war, since war is their bread and butter. But Art of War is in fact an anti-war book. I always compare Sun Tzu to Confucius, because I think they both have benevolence(bəˈnevələns), that’s why I like him. At the end of the book, chapter 13, he talked about benevolence again, the whole book is about protecting yourself and to be benevolent to the people, including the enemy.

Let's start with the famous phrase(freɪz) " Victory in a hundred battles does not make a good general; a good general captures the enemy without fighting or bloodshed. There is an old Chinese saying that "Successive(səkˈsesɪv) victories will bring about the downfall(ˈdaʊnfɔːl) of a nation." Which was said by Li Ke, who was the adviser to the marquis of Wei, 2400 years ago.

One day, the marquis asked Li Ke:” What caused the downfall of Wu kingdom? Li Ke replied: “Because Wu won all their wars." The marquis was surprised: "Isn't winning all the wars a good thing? How could a kingdom collapse(kəˈlæps) from this?" Li Ke said, "War and war and war, The people were very tired, but victory after victory after victory, the king becomes very arrogant. An arrogant king leading tired people, how could he avoid breakdown?" now you see, It’s just like current situation in Euroup. It’s all just history repeating itself.

That’s why victory in a hundred battles does not make a good general, because you may lose everything in the next single battle.

On the other hand, as for victory in a hundred battles, why do you need to fight 100 times? Why don’t you resolve the problem in just one battle? You fight and fight and fight, you are so brave, but stupid, that means the quality of each victory gets less. You are wrong, you shouldn’t fight, you should prepare and wait for a big opportunity, and resolve everything in one decisive(dɪˈsaɪsɪv) battle.

The aim of the war is not to defeat an enemy, but to solve problems. What we want is not to win a hundred battles, but to capture the enemy without fighting or bloodshed, and if we must fight, we’d better finish it in one battle.

Then how can we capture the enemy without fighting? Sun Tzu said: “The best way is to attack their thoughts, secondly, destroy their alliance(əˈlaɪəns). If you can’t do this, you have to fight their army. And the worst thing is to attack their cities directly, because the cities are well defended, and no matter you win or lose, the cost would be too great."

So, because we want to avoid fighting, we focus on their minds and allies.

To attack their thoughts, change their mind, and destroy their plan, there is the famous story called " beat their army at the banquet(ˈbæŋkwɪt)".

It took place in the Chunqiu, and known as the Spring and Autumn Period, The powerful state of Jin was planning to attack Qi, so in order to find out Qi’s situation, the Duke of Jin sent one of his best ministers Fan Zhao to Qi. The Duke of Qi held a great banquet to welcome him, after drinking a lot, and everybody was having pleasure at the banquet. Fan Zhao said to the Duke of Qi, "My lord, would you please give me the honor to drink from your cup? " The Duke of Qi was very happy at that time, and he ordered his staff: ”Of course, give my cup to Mr. Fan.” And then Fanzhao took the cup and drank it in one gulp. When the server was about to take the cup back to the Duke, he was stopped by Yan Ying, who was Qi’s most famous minister. He ordered the server:"Throw away this cup and give the Duke a new one, because Dukes and ministers are not allowed to drink from the same cup."

When Fan Zhao returned to Jin, he reported to his Duke: "Now is not the best time to attack Qi; I tried to disrupt their etiquette(ˈetɪkət), their duke was unaware(ʌnəˈwer), but their ministers saw right through my plan. With such ministers in their state, we’d better avoid waging war now.”

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the art of war, which is first the art of avoiding a war, and both Yan Ying and Fan Zhao are the artists.

To capture the enemy without fighting. Allow(əˈlaʊ) me to also share a story about Cao Cao.

In the time of the Three Kingdoms, when the warlord Zhang Lu in the northwest wanted to make himself king, his advisor Yan Pu said, no, don’t do it. You already have the power of a king. Not even the emperor can touch you. Don’t make waves, everything will be fine, we just wait and watch the situation. If Cao Cao loses his power, you might not worry about becoming a king, you may well challenge to become the emperor. If Cao Cao conquer the whole of China, you have the option to surrender, and at least he will make you a marquis. Zhang Lu listened to his advisor. Several years later, Zhang lu surrendered to Cao Cao. After hearing the story of Zhang Lu, Cao Cao not only made Zhang Lu a marquis (mar-kwis), but also Yan Pu. Having been just an advisor, why did Cao Cao made Yan Pu a marquis? This is the art of war, to get the enemy to surrender without fighting，who is the enemy here? They were the other warlords, the potential enemies. When somebody had ambition to make himself a king, his advisors would recall the story of Yan Pu, By changing his boss’s mind, someday Cao Cao would reward him. So, It’s Cao Cao use them to attack their boss’s thoughts.

This is the art of war, or in modern terms, better known as Game Theory, that is why Art of War is also regarded as the first book on Game Theory in human history.

Now let’s travel through time to the end of World War One. The story of the most famous and important economist, John Maynard Keynes.

After the victory of the war, Britain and France thought to severely(sɪˈvɪrli) punish Germany, they asked for a great sum of war reparations, regardless of Germany’s ability to afford it. Keynes was an official in the British Treasury(ˈtreʒəri) at that time, he attended the Paris Peace Conference, he strongly objected to punishing Germany. He said: "Not only must we not ask Germany to pay reparations, but we must lend money to help them recover their economy, or else a second world war will break out."

Nobody listened to him, and he published a book called The Economic(ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk) Consequences of the Peace. And a lot of things he mentioned in the book occurred. That’s why by the end of World War II, all the victors did not ask for war reparations from the defeated, and instead the Marshall Plan was ‘implemented, which was based on Keynes' ideas. Because of the lessons learned from World War I, everyone knew that this was the only way to avoid a new war.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the Art of War, which is actually the Art of peace.

What I just talked about was the No 1 art in war, which is changing your enemy or potential enemy’s mind. This kind of sounds like the movie INCEPTION, doesn’t it? The Chinese name of the movie is The Space where to steal his dream, makes sense.

Now we will talk about No.2, focus on their allies, which means disrupt their allegiances(əˈliːdʒənsis).

There is a popular stratagem called "killing the emissary(ˈemɪseri) to disrupt a "potential allegiance(əˈliːdʒəns)". This stratagem was so popular that I have 2 stories to share with you.

The first story took place during the Chu-Han Contention, Chu and Han were in a war, both kingdoms wanted Yingbu, who at that time was the king of Jiujiang, to join their sides, and they both sent an envoy(/ˈenvɔɪ) to Ying Bu.

The envoy of Han, Sui He, made a deal with Yingbu, but before he left for his country, he found something strange about Ying Bu. Something must have happened. And soon, the spy reported, Chu kingdom also sent an envoy here, and now he is meeting with Ying Bu somewhere. Without wasting a second, Sui He barged(‘bɑːrdʒd) into the meeting room, sat down at the head of the table, and scolded(skoʊldid), "The King of Jiujiang has already joined Han, what are you doing here now?" The Chu envoy was shocked, and in his panic, not knowing what was going on, he tried to flee. Sui He yelled again, "We can't let him go, kill him!" Ying Bu was cornered and had to decide, so he immediately killed the Chu envoy and joined Han’s side.

The second story is set during the Han dynasty, about 300 years after the first story, after Han won by making alliances(əˈlaɪənsis). This time our story is about Ban Chao, who was the envoy of Han to the western kingdoms. Just like Sui He, he made a deal with the King of Shanshan; and found something strange was going on, now you can probably guess why, right?

The Shanshan king was fine at first, but suddenly became cold. When Ban Chao enquired, he found out that a Xiongnu mission was coming, and the Shanshan king was wavering. Ban Chao had to find a way to help the Shanshan king to decide. That night, Ban Chao gathered 36 warriors under his command and raided the Xiongnu embassy(ˈembəsi), killing the entire Xiongnu delegation(ˌdelɪˈɡeɪʃn).

Ban Chao took the Xiongnu envoy's head to the Shanshan king, who was horrified and shocked. The king couldn’t explain to the Xiongnu who slaughtered(ˈslɔːtəd) the whole delegation. So, he made up his mind that he was willing to submit to the Han Dynasty and sent his prince to Chang'an as a hostage.

In summary, the main message behind chapter 3 is to win without fighting, and we do this by No.1, changing their mind, and No.2, breaking their alliance.

4、Formations

Let’s have a review for the first 3 chapters, chapter 1 talks about calculating before fighting, if you can win, you may fight, if you can't win, don't do it; chapter 2 talks about calculation again, calculate the cost, even if you can win, but if the cost is too high and you can't afford, still don't do it; chapter 3, after calculating twice, you can win and you can afford it, Sun Tzu says, wait a minute! Let's see if we can solve the problem without fighting.

Moving on to chapter 4, Sun Tzu talks about when we have no choice, and we must fight, win before fighting.

You must have won before fighting, no win, no fight, just wait, the victory is not made by fighting, but waiting. When you fight, it just goes to pick up the victory, as you pick up a branch on the ground.

Sun Tzu said:”the good fighters first make themselves invincible, and then wait for an opportunity of defeating the enemy. the invincibility(ɪnˌvɪnsəˈbɪləti) lies in our own hands, and the opportunity to defeat the enemy is often presented by the enemy himself.

“Even the best fighters all over the world, are only able to make themselves invincible, but cannot be certain of defeating the enemy.”

Sun Tzu Said:”Victory is knowable but cannot be forced.” Which means that you can know if you will or not. However, if the odds are not in your favor, you couldn’t force any victory.

I think this is the law of war: know win first then go fight. No win no fight!

This is a concept I have a lot of experience and actively apply in the business world. In Hua & Hua, our largest conference room is called the "Know Win" room, where we hold our weekly project meeting. As a consulting company, Hua & Hua provides strategic and market-‘oriented creative solutions to clients. Every pro’posal must go through me before being presented to the client, and it is my responsibility to de’termine if the proposal can win. I am the CWO, Chief Winning Officer of Hua & Hua, and I make the final judgment during the weekly project meetings.

We even have an annual project meeting called "Know Win Day" on March 3rd. On this day, all project leaders will report their market strategies for the entire year, and I a’ssess their chances of winning. We even have a slogan that says, "On March 3rd every year, know win the whole year."

I told my team that it’s okay to collect money from clients without providing any services. The worst that could happen is the client losing a small amount of of money they paid us. But it’s not okay to engage them in a battle where they have slim chances of winning. It is certainly no good to take money without doing any work, but it is still better than doing work that results in losses. This is the principle of Hua & Hua in our consulting work.

Now, returning to the Art of War, Sun Tzu said:“In war, the victorious strategist only seek battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined(ˈdestɪnd) to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.”

Before the victory has been won, you couldn’t fight, you must wait. So, waiting is exactly a ‘military operation, in most cases, it’s the most important military operation. Clausewitz also figured out this point, he said:” I’m probably the first person to suggest waiting as an independent military operation.” No, he is not, maybe Sun Tzu is not as well, because war is such an old art in China, I believe it is FengHou, who was a famous general 2000 years before Sun Tzu knew it.

When we are waiting, what should we do? Just sit there? Now we come to the core secret of the art of war, the highest source of human knowledge, Sun Tzu only wrote 4 words in traditional Chinese: XIU TAO BAO FA. He said: By XIU TAO BAO FA, you can determine the victory or defeat.

What is XIU TAO BAO FA? XIU means cultivate; TAO is unity; BAO is also cultivate, and FA is the legal system. Think back to calculating by the 5 ‘aspects I mentioned earlier in Chapter 1, unity and legal system are the 2 out of 5. If you can cultivate unity and the legal system, you would be invincible, and waiting for your enemy to make mistakes. XIU TAO BAO FA, reminds me of the famous campaign slogan: make America great again! And the slogan of the other side: Stronger together. Yes, that’s the art of war. I also recalled when I was a child, what my mother nagged at me every day: “Study hard and day day up!” Which is a very famous Chinglish slogan, means study hard and make progress everyday. So, I study hard and day day up, and waited for today’s speech, waiting for your applause(əˈplɔːz).

Study hard and make progress every day! That is the art of war, that is the art of life, that is the art of everything and that’s the highest source of human knowledge. It’s so simple, so easy, and so boring, just like my speech, right? because I’m telling the truth, and all the truth is simple and boring. Yes, even Sun Tzu said it’s boring. He said: “The ‘victories of a good fighter bring him neither reputation for wisdom nor credit for courage(ˈkɜːrɪdʒ). Because he always winning the easy battles.” It seems like everybody can do what he did, there is no story worthy(ˈwɜːrði) to talk about.

That is Sun Tzu himself, He was a person without stories. His only story is he wrote the book and got the king of WU to appoint him as a general because of the book. After that, there was no more story. We just know that he won several wars, but we don’t know how he won, there is no story worth talking about.

But another general of WU, his colleague, WU ZI XU, who is also one of the most famous generals in Chinese history, had a lot of stories, wisdom and courage, revenge, and victories, and in the end, killed by his political enemies. He was so smart; His enemies came to kill him when the king who protected him died. He hid behind the king’s body, and when the enemies shoot him, their ‘arrows also hit the king’s body. So, the new king executed(ˈeksɪkjuːtɪd) all the shooters. How clever WU ZI XU was! He even took revenge after he died! And how about Sun Tzu, no story, He is a boring guy. we don’t even know when he died, and how he died, probably died peacefully in his own bed.

In comparing Sun Tzu and Wu Zi Xu, Sun Tzu was a successful person, and Wu Zi Xu was a hero. As we know, Heroes usually mean tragedies(ˈtrædʒədis), like Achilles, Alexander, and Napoleon.

Now coming back to the most important military operation, “Wait”. Let’s see what would happen if you couldn’t wait. The story of Tang dynasty, which is the greatest, richest dynasty in China, was destroyed just because the emperor couldn’t wait.

This happened in the year AD 755, when Tang Dynasty was in its heyday. A powerful general An Lushan rebelled and started his army from Fang Yan, today's Beijing, and headed west to take Chang'an, the capital of the Tang Dynasty, which is today's Xi'an. Marching to Changan, He had to pass through the most important pass called Tongguan. With the great general of the Tang army, Ge Shu Han, already guarding the Tongguan Pass. There is a famous Chinese saying: “One soldier guard the pass, ten thousand couldn’t pass”. An Lushan was in fact unable to pass through, and Chang'an was safe.

What the emperor LI Longji need to do, is just wait, and in a war of rebellion(/rɪˈbeljən), time was in the emperor's favor. because the longer it dragged on, the more troops from across the country to attend to the king could arrive; and confidence within the rebel army would be shaken. But the emperor Li Longji couldn’t wait, he ordered his general Ge Shuhan, don’t guard the pass, and go out to attack An Lushan. Ge Shuhan said no! An Lushan had prepared for the war for more than ten years, but the government forces had not seen war for generations. If we leave the pass and fight the enemy in the field, we are bound to fail miserably. And if we lost Tongguan, we would lose our capital, Changan.

The emperor Li Longji gave Ge Shuhan two choices: A, you attack Anlushan and kill him, now! B, I execute you, now!

Geshuhan was sorrowful(ˈsɑːroʊfl) and des’paired, he wailed aloud and led his army to set out. After the battle, the entire army was wiped out, and Ge Shuhan surrendered to An Lushan.

Without the protection of Tongguan, it lost its geographical advantage, 1 of the 5 aspects in Chapter 1. Changan was impossible to defend, the emperor fled hastily(ˈheɪstɪli) to SHU, which was 800 kilometres away. And China got into a period of war and war and war, for 200 years! Just because Lilongji couldn’t wait! Just because of one mistake made by the emperor, Chinese people had to pay a heavy price, 200 years of misery.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness. From the best to the worst, we just need one mistake. From wisdom to foolishness, only in a moment. Big shots decide the fate of billions of people, but they are sometimes foolish. now you see, It’s just like current situation in Euroup. It’s all just history repeating itself.

Now the question, why Li Longji couldn’t wait? He went against Sun Tzu’s Art of War. His generals knew he couldn’t win, but he wanted to force a victory. Was the reason he didn’t know the art of war? I’d like to ‘analyze(ˈænəlaɪz) it by looking at 3 things: resentment, impatience, and arrogance(ˈærəɡənt). He resented An lushan and wanted to kill him. He was impatient, He couldn’t bare to wait. He was arrogant, he wanted to save face. For him, It’s nothing about strategy, but emotion, the weakness of human nature.

Ladies and gentlemen, Our enemy is not our enemy, but the weakness of our human nature. We are fighting against ourselves! Fighting to save face.

On the other hand, Anlushan didn’t defeat Lilongji, but Lilongji defeated himself.

I’d like to share with you a very important point, ‘Wisdom in Negative Thinking’. People always tend to be positive, but negativity is real wisdom. Don’t ask for the best, just ensure the least worst. No matter in war, or ‘politics or your relationship with your partner. Don’t ask for the best, just be content with the least worst. In investment we have ‘downside protection’ which is a way for us to avoid financial loss(lɔːs).

Li long ji’s downside protection was his cities capital, but he sought to kill An LuShan immediately, and that’s why he lost his capital in the end.

Remember to be negative, just like a covid test, negative is good!

Here, I have finished the main thinking of Sun Tzu’s Art of war, which is the art of preventing war. Now we come to the next chapter of the book, which is the art of fighting in war. I will talk about it briefly.

5、Potential energy

6、Strengths and Weaknesses

The topic of Chapter 5 is potential energy, and chapter 6 is Strengths and Weaknesses. you can think it as that physical terminology(/ˌtɜːrmɪˈnɑːlədʒi), potential energy and kinetic(kɪˈnetɪk) energy. If you couldn’t understand it, that means you didn’t study hard and “day day up”, you returned everything you learned to your middle school teacher.

In physics, we know, when a boulder rolled from the hilltop to the foot of the hill, potential energy is converted into kinetic energy. Remember the formula(ˈfɔːrmjələ)?

mgh=1/2mv^2 （mgh is equal to the one-half mv squared）

That is exactly what Sun Tzu said, but of course he didn’t include the physics formula.

Sun Tzu said: “Just as the momentum(moʊˈmentəm) of a round stone rolled down a mountain thousands of feet in height(haɪt), it’s potential energy.” You can picture it as your army is the boulder on the top of the mountain, and the enemies at the foot. When your boulder rolls down, how could they resist?

Chapter 5 is about how to make your potential energy strong before fighting, and chapter 6 is about how to make yourself strong, and make the enemy expose their weakness, by moving yourself, and luring the enemy.

I'd like to discuss strengths and weaknesses further in 2 parts. Frist, it doesn't just mean that I have strengths and my rival has none, but rather that we both have our own strengths and weaknesses. Second, our strengths are gained by a trade-off for a weakness. What does this mean?

‘Concentrating our forces is often discussed during warfare. Concen’tration of forces makes us stronger. However, concentrating forces means taking them from elsewhere and combining them together. Once forces are taken from other places, those places will become weaker. That’s why I said our strengths are gained by a trade-off for a weakness.

Therefore, strengths and weaknesses are not literally just about strengths and weaknesses, but also about resource allocation. By allocating our resources in an ‘innovative way, we can become stronger.

In business terms, which is exactly the famous strategic model called Blue Ocean Strategy: E’liminate, Reduce, Increase, Cre’ate, right?

I'd like to share two case studies, both are my clients. The first is Wallace Burger, a very large company with over 25 thousand chains in China. As we all know, a burger usually con’sists of two pieces of bread with a piece of meat, two pieces of tomatoes, and some lettuce(ˈletɪs). However, Wallace Burger does not include tomatoes. This e’limi’nation is considered a weakness. By removing tomatoes, Wallace reduced the labor required for cutting them, decreased the space needed in the kitchen, and lowered the investment required for each store. As a result, they became more competitive in terms of price. This is the art of war and the art of avoiding a war. Through this a’pproach, Wallace Burger managed to avoid direct competition with McDonald's and KFC.

Another interesting case study is N-duo Sushi. When we think of sushi, we usually imagine a piece of sashimi on a rice ball, right? On the other hand, N-duo Sushi serves cooked in’gredients(/ɪnˈɡriːdiənts). The salmon is cooked, and there are no raw ingredients. The reason for this is similar to Wallace Burger's situation. According to the Food Distribution License in China, the preparation space for raw ingredients must be separated from cooked food. Serving raw ingredients requires a separate license in China. Since N-duo Sushi doesn't have raw ingredients, the kitchen space needed can be reduced. As a result, the price has been reduced to 4 Singapore dollars per person. This is the application of strengths and weaknesses in business world, which is blue ocean strategy.

7、Armed(ɑːrmd) struggle

Chapter 7, Armed struggle, Sun Tzu finally got to talking about fighting. As you can see, from chapters 1 to 6, there is not really a lot going on about fighting. He only really get into it from chapter 7 onwards. What does fighting depend on? Still energy. But chapters 5 and 6 are about the energy of both armies, and chapter 7 is about the energy of each single soldier, and both sides of the armies, how to equip our soldiers to be full of energy, and how to drain the energy of the enemy’s soldiers.

And the emphasis of fighting is still don’t fight! If their soldiers are full of energy, don’t fight! We can only fight when their energy is depleted. And there are a lot of stories about how to make our soldiers full of energy, and drain the energy of enemies, so chapter 5 to 7 is all about energy, energy and energy!

But the energy in chapter 5; 6 and 7 are described with different words in Chinese. The energy in Chapter 5 is 势，which is potential energy. The energy in Chapter 6 is 实，which is about the strengths. For example, a rock is 实, which is strong and the egg is weak. It’s like throwing an egg against a rock. Lastly, the energy in Chapter 7 is 气，it’s about fighting spirit. A team with fighting spirit will always win against a team without fighting spirit.

Let's talk about the application in business operations. What’s the source of energy in business? In Chinese, this energy is referred to as "气" (qì), and carries the meaning of breathing. So, it’s stronger than the word "energy." For me, it’s branding and advertising. Therefore, in China, for over 15 years, my advertisements can be seen at major airports in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and others. Nothing could stop my advertisement, not even COVID-19. During the quarantine period in Shanghai last year, Hongqiao Airport was empty, but my contract for advertisements continued. I said, "the airport can be empty, but it can’t be empty without me!" Why? Because I believe that if my advertisements stop, my "Qi" will be cut off, and I will lose my energy and I can’t breathe.

In the art of war, it is said to manage the energy of both ourself and competitors . As I mentioned before, we need to keep our energy high and drain our competitors' energy. When my advertisements are present at Hongqiao Airport, as you see, you can see it all over the airport, my team and clients felt energized every time they passed by. On the other hand, when my competitors and their customers passed by, they felt disheartened and frustrated.

Now that I am expanding to Singapore, I have also invested in advertising at Changi Airport. I have taken up all the lightboxes at the T1 and T3 luggage areas. Maybe you have already seen them. Therefore, standing here today, I feel full of energy, When I breath, I smell my advertisement in the air.

8、Variations(verɪˈeʃəns)

9、March

10、Terrain(təˈreɪn)

11、Situations

12、Attack by fire

Chapters 8 – 12 are about various(ˈveriəs) kinds of military tactics like marching, different situations and some skills like attacking by fire.

13、The use of spies

Finally, I’d like to say something about the last chapter, chapter 13, ‘The use of spies’. Sun Tzu talked about who could be turned into a spy and how to recruit(rɪˈkruːt) them, but that’s not the point he wanted to say. In this last chapter, he talked about the cost of war again, He said, Every day that the war lasts, we are incurring(/ɪnˈkɜːrɪŋ) huge losses(ˈlɔsɪz), and the intelligence provided by the spy, may end the war early. So, he talked about money again, He said, you should give the spy as much money as possible. If you are stingy(ˈstɪndʒi) to give the spy money, you are merciless(ˈmɜːrsɪləs)! you are not benevolent(bəˈnevələnt)!

In conclusion, the art of war is about. Benevolence, that’s the morality(məˈræləti) of Confucius, and also the morality of Sun Tzu, that’s why I said, the Art of War is the art of peace. If the whole world understands the Art of War, there would be no more wars.

I noticed the title of the poster of my speech, is “thriving(ˈθraɪvɪŋ) in a dangerous world”. That means people are worrying about the world, and worrying about conflict. In today’s world, we need to learn the art of peace, that’s Sun Tzu’s Art of War.

Thank you for your patience, to bear with my broken English. But I’m really proud that I can finish this session(ˈseʃ(ə)n) in English. I prepared and practiced this speech for more than 60 hours, first wrote in Chinese, then translated by AI, and discussed and revised word for word. Finally, practiced the speech. My English teacher Alex from EF English school accompanied me from the start to finish. Thank you, Alex! Alex! I did it!

Now we come to the Q&A session, I have to call upon Mr. Tan to help me.

Thank you very much!