When faced with a bewildering shock it is natural to turn to your own experience.
当面临一个剧烈的打击时求助于自己的亲身经历是很自然的。
As covid-19 rages, investors and officials are scrambling to make sense of the violent moves in financial markets over the past two weeks.
随着冠状病毒的蔓延，投资者和官方都在急于搞清楚两周以来在金融市场的剧烈动作。
For many the obvious reference is the crisis of 2007-09.
对于大多数人来说，最明显的对比就是2007-2009年的经融危机。
-There are indeed some similarities. Stockmarkets have plunged.The oil price has tumbled below $40 a barrel.
他们有很多地方是相似的，股市都崩盘了。油价跌至40美元每桶。
There has been a flurry of emergency interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks.
联邦监控机构和其他中央银行采取了一系列紧急措施来降低利率。
Traders are on a war footing—with a rising number working from their kitchen tables.
随着越来越多的人选择在家中进行操作，交易者如临大敌。
Still, the comparison with the last big crisis is misplaced. It also obscures two real financial dangers that the pandemic has inflamed.
诚然，与最近的金融危机相比是不合适的。流行病的爆发掩盖了两个实际的金融风险。
The severity of the shock so far does not compare with 2007-09.
这次动荡的程度尚没有跟2007-2009年的金融危机进行比较。
Stockmarkets have fallen by a fifth from their peak, compared with a 59% drop in the mortgage crisis.
股市从峰值跌落1/5，而在上一次的次贷危机中跌落59%。
The amount of toxic debt is limited and easy to identify. Some15% of non-financial corporate bonds were issued by oil firms or others hit hard by the virus, such as airlines and hotels.
不良债务的数量被限制，而且容易被识别。约15%的非金融机构的债券由与被病毒影响巨大的公司如石油、航空、酒店等所发行。
The banking system, stuffed with capital, has yet to seize up; interbank lending rates are under control.
充斥着资本的银行系统，已经被捆绑；银行间借贷利率已经得到控制。
When investors panic about the end of civilisation they rush into the dollar,the reserve currency. That has not yet happened (see Buttonwood).
当投资者因文明的结束而焦虑时，他们投向了美元，储备货币。这还没有发生。
The nature of the shock is different, too. The 2007-09 crisis came from within the financial system, whereas the virus is primarily a health emergency.
这次冲击的性质与上次也不同。2007-2009年的危机来源于金融系统，而病毒最开始只是健康紧急事件。
Markets are usually spooked when there is uncertainty about the outlook six or12 months out, even when things seem calm at the time—think of asset prices dropping in early 2008,long before most subprime mortgage borrowers defaulted.
当未来6-12月的前景不明朗时，市场常常会出现不稳定，即使当时仍看起来很平静。联想2008年早期固定资产价格的下跌，远早于抵押贷款者大规模破产的出现。
Today, the time horizon is inverted: it is unclear what will happen in the next few weeks, but fairly certain that within six months the threat will have abated.
现在，时间轴反转了。尽管不清楚未来几周的发展，但是很清楚的是在未来6个月威胁将会减轻。
Instead of tottering Wall Street banks or defaults on Florida condos, two other risks loom.
华尔街银行的破产或佛罗里达的违约，另外两种风险出现了。
The first is a temporary cash crunch at a very broad range of companies around the world as quarantines force them to shut offices and factories.
首先是由于隔离强制公司关闭办公室和工厂而影响到世界范围内大量公司的暂时的资金链紧缩。
A crude “stress test” based on listed companies suggests that 10-15% of firms might face liquidity problems (see Finance section).
一个粗略的对于上市公司的压力测试表明有10%-15%的公司可能面临流水的问题。
Corporate-bond markets, which demand precise contractual terms and regular payments, are not good at bridging this kind of short but precarious gap.
联合债券市场因为要求精确的合同条目和规律的支付，并不擅于度过这样短期但是危险的缺口。
In 2007-09 the authorities funnelled cash to the financial system by injecting capital into banks, guaranteeing their liabilities and stimulating bond markets.
在2007-2009年，当局向金融体系投资现金，通过向银行注入资本的方式来担保他们的债务并刺激债券市场。
This time the challenge is to get cash to companies. This is easy in China, where most banks are state-controlled and do as they are told.
这一次的挑战在于向公司投入现金。对于中国来说较为容易实现，因为在中国银行都是国有企业，会按照政府要求的来做。
Credit there grew by 11% in February compared with the previous year.In the West, where banks are privately run, it will take enlightened managers, rule tweaks and jawboning from regulators to encourage lenders to show clients for bearance.
2月，信用相比去年同期上涨11%。在西方国家，银行均为私有运营，这就需要开明的领导者来鼓励借贷者向贷方展示信心。
Governments need to be creative about using tax breaks and other giveaways to get cash to hamstrung firms. While America dithered, Britain set a good example in this week’s budget(see Britain section).
政府需要通过创造性的应用税收政策和其他支持方式来帮助公司。当美国仍在犹豫时，英国在本周的预算中示范了一个很好的例子。
The second area to watch is the euro zone. It is barely growing, if at all, Central-bank interestrates are already below zero. Its banks are healthier than they were in 2008 but still weak compared with their American cousins.
第二个要关注的地区是欧洲。欧洲几乎不增长了，中央银行利率早已跌至0以下。欧洲央行利率比2008年健康了许多，但是仍然比美国同伴弱。
Judged by the cost of insuring against default, there are already jitters in Italy, the one big economy where banks’ funding costs have jumped.
以保险和违约的费用来比较，在意大利早已令人头疼，这个大经济体的银行资助金额已经跳水。
As we went to press, the European Central Bank was meeting to discuss its virus response. The danger is that it, national governments and regulators fail to work together.
在我们出版的过程中，欧洲央行已经在开会讨论他们对病毒采取的措施。危险在于政府和监管者无法共同合作。
Every financial shock is different. In 1930 central banks let banks fail. In 2007 few people had heard of the subprime mortgages that were about to blow up.
每一次金融冲击都不一样。1930年中央银行让银行破产了。2007年鲜有人民听说次贷即将破灭。
This financial shock does not yet belong in that company. But the virus scare of 2020 does create financial risks that need to be treated—fast.
这次金融危机到目前并没有归属于一个公司，但是受到病毒惊吓的2020年确实造成了一个继续采取措施应对的金融危机。
网友评论