DAY 92 Why the pandemic could ev

DAY 92 Why the pandemic could eventually lower inequality

inequality  /ˌɪnɪˈkwɒləti/
​the unfair difference between groups of people in society, when some have more wealth, status or opportunities than others

equality /iˈkwɒləti/  
the fact of being equal in rights, status, advantages, etc.

History suggests it could precipitate shifts towards a more equal income distribution

precipitate /prɪˈsɪpɪteɪt/ 
1> to make something, especially something bad, happen suddenly or sooner than it should
2>  to suddenly force somebody/something into a particular state or condition
v（通常指不好的事件或形势）突然发生；加速 ;
a （行动或决定）仓猝的，贸然的，突然的

shift
[c] a change in opinion, mood, policy, etc.

distribution[ˌdɪstrɪˈbjuːʃn]
income distribution  收入的分配

1 For America’s poor, the covid-19 pandemic has delivered a swift and brutal reversal of fortune. At the start of the year unemployment was plumbing new lows. Years of wage growth for low-income workers had healed some of the scars left by the global financial crisis. Already by 2016, the most recent year for which figures are available, the economic expansion had produced a smaller rise in American income inequality, after taxes and transfers, than any expansion since the early 1980s. Between 2016 and 2019 the weekly earnings of low- and middle-income workers grew at an annual average pace of 3.8%. Since covid-19 struck, however, a host of economic statistics—and legions of pundits—have pointed to a resurgence in inequality. Yet if history is a guide, the pandemic could eventually render the distribution of income more egalitarian.

a swift and brutal reversal  猛烈而惨痛的损失

deliver
 [transitive] to give or send information or ideas to somebody

 brutal /ˈbruːtl/  a
1> violent and cruel
2> direct and clear about something unpleasant; not thinking of people’s feelings

reversal/rɪˈvɜːsl/  n
 a change of something so that it is the opposite of what it was

plumb /plʌm/  v = fathom
to try to understand or succeed in understanding something mysterious

 a host of许多，一大群；众多，大量

pundit  /ˈpʌndɪt/  行家；权威；专家
​a person who knows a lot about a particular subject and who often talks about it in public

 resurgence/rɪˈsɜːdʒəns/  n
​the return and growth of an activity that had stopped 

render /ˈrendə(r)/  
1> render somebody/something + adj. (formal) to cause somebody/something to be in a particular state or condition
2> (formal) to give somebody something, especially in return for something or because it is expected
3> (formal) to present something, especially when it is done officially =furnish
4> (formal) to express or perform something
致使;造成    给予(帮助);提供(服务)     
宣布，作出(判决、决定或回应)

egalitarian.  /iˌɡælɪˈteəriən/   n
​a person who believes that everyone is equal and should have the same rights and opportunities
adj. 平等主义的 n. 平等主义；平等主义者

转移支付（transfer payment）是指政府或企业无偿地支付给个人以增加其收入和购买力的费用。它是一种收入再分配形式。转移支付包括政府的转移支付和企业的转移支付。政府的转移支付大都带有福利支出性质，如社会保险福利津贴、抚恤金、养老金、失业补助、救济金以及各种补助费等；农产品价格补贴也是政府的转移支付。由于政府的转移支付等于把财政收入还给个人，故有的西方经济学家称其为负税收。

2 There are many reasons why the well-heeled might suffer less in the pandemic. Much of the plunge in asset prices that occurred in March has since been retraced. In places like New York City and Los Angeles, covid-19 seems to have hit poorer neighbourhoods harder. Low-wage earners are often less able to work from home or maintain social distancing. Interruptions to schooling widen the gaps in achievement between children from richer backgrounds and those from poorer families.

well-heeled   /ˌwel ˈhiːld/  富人们
​having a lot of money  = rich, wealthy

retrace  /rɪˈtreɪs/  举（步）折回;沿（原路）返回
go back over again 

3 Meanwhile, workers on the lower rungs of the income ladder have borne the brunt of job losses. America’s unemployment rate rose by roughly ten percentage points, to 14.7%, in April—the highest since the Depression. The jobless rate for workers with a college education went up by nearly six percentage points, to 8.4%; that for workers without a high-school diploma leapt by just over 14 percentage points, to 21.2%. A new paper published by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago reinforces the point. Between February and April, find its authors, employment among workers in the top fifth of the income distribution dropped by 9%. In the bottom fifth, by contrast, it plunged by 35%.

rung /rʌŋ/  楼梯中间的挡板——>挡板
one of the bars that forms a step in a ladder

bear  /beə(r)/  v 承受
to be able to accept and deal with something unpleasant  = stand

brunt  /brʌnt/  压力
承受主要压力；首当其冲
To bear the brunt or take the brunt of something unpleasant means to suffer the main part or force of it.

leap /liːp/
leap (in something) (from…) (to…) to increase suddenly and by a large amount  =shoot up

reinforce /ˌriːɪnˈfɔːs/  v
 to make a feeling, an idea, etc. stronger

4 Were the crisis of unemployment to end as swiftly as it began, the effects of these uneven job losses on inequality would be limited, and fleeting. Many jobless workers are earning more in unemployment benefits than they did on the job, thanks to a top-up of $600 per week enacted by Congress in March. Of the more than 20m Americans who were out of work in April, 78% were reported to be temporarily laid off. But the danger is that temporary job losses become permanent. The authors of the Becker Friedman paper calculate that active employment—or the number of workers counted on payrolls—declined by 14% between February and April. About 40% of that fall occurred at firms that had ceased operations, at least temporarily. Not all will reopen. A new working paper by Jose Maria Barrero of Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University and Steven Davis of the University of Chicago is similarly gloomy, concluding that 42% of pandemic-related job losses will be permanent. Meanwhile, the crush of claimants has overwhelmed some state governments and slowed the flow of unemployment aid. Top-up benefits are due to expire in July, when millions will still be jobless.

 fleeting  /ˈfliːtɪŋ/  短时间存在
​lasting only a short time

unemployment benefits   收入津贴
top-up /ˈtɒp ʌp/  n 充值
​a payment that you make to increase the amount of money, etc. to the level that is needed

 active employment 正在工作并领薪水
the number of workers counted on payrolls   

payroll   /ˈpeɪrəʊl/   工资名单
1> ​a list of people employed by a company showing the amount of money to be paid to each of them
2> ​[usually singular] the total amount paid in wages by a company

 gloomy/ˈɡluːmi/  depressing
nearly dark, or badly lit in a way that makes you feel sad

claimant  /ˈkleɪmənt/  领取失业救济金的人
a person who claims something because they believe they have a right to it

5 The most vulnerable workers are therefore likely to be squeezed hard by the recession. But if history is a guide, those at the top of the income distribution could yet face a reckoning. Disruptive global events have often precipitated shifts towards a more equal distribution of income and wealth. In his influential book, “Capital in the Twenty-First Century”, Thomas Piketty points out that high levels of inequality in the late 19th and early 20th centuries were reduced by the calamitous events of the period from 1914 to 1945. In that time the share of income earned by America’s top 1%, for instance, dropped from 19% to 14%. The combination of depression, war, inflation and taxes compressed incomes and laid waste to vast fortunes. Walter Scheidel, a historian, goes further still in his book on long-run inequality, “The Great Leveller”. Since antiquity, he argues, only four forces have ever managed to reduce inequality in a sustained way: war, revolution, state failure and pandemic. (The troubles often coincide: a pandemic contributed to the failure of the Roman empire; another coincided with the end of the first world war.)

reckoning/ˈrekənɪŋ/   
1>​[countable, usually singular, uncountable] a time when somebody’s actions will be judged to be right or wrong and they may be punished
2> ​[uncountable, countable] the act of calculating something, especially in a way that is not very exact
报应;清算    （尤指并不十分准确的）预计，估计，估算

disruptive /dɪsˈrʌptɪv/  破坏性的;制造混乱的
1> causing problems, noise, etc. so that something cannot continue normally
2> new and original, in a way that causes major changes to how something is done

precipitate

calamitous  /kəˈlæmɪtəs/
​causing great damage to people’s lives, property, etc. = disastrous
不幸的;灾难性的;严重的

lay waste 使荒芜
lay something waste | lay waste (to) something
​(formal) to destroy a place completely

antiquity[ænˈtɪkwəti]
1> Antiquity is the distant past, especially the time of the ancient Egyptians, Greeks, and Romans.
古代，古时（尤指古埃及、古希腊、古罗马时期）
2> things such as buildings, statues, or coins that were made in ancient times and have survived to the present day. 古迹;古建筑;古物
3> The antiquity of something is its great age.古老；年代悠久

state failure  国家灭亡

coincide /ˌkəʊɪnˈsaɪd/
[intransitive] (of two or more events) to take place at the same time

contributed to
to be one of the causes of something

托马斯·皮凯蒂（Thomas Piketty），1971年生于法国上塞纳省。法国著名经济学家，巴黎经济学院教授，法国社会科学高等研究院研究主任，主要研究财富与收入不平等。

《21世纪资本论》法国经济学家、巴黎经济学院教授托马斯·皮凯蒂对过去300年来欧美国家的财富收入做了详尽探究，通过大量的历史数据分析，旨在证明近几十年来，不平等现象已经扩大，很快会变得更加严重。他认为，我们正在倒退回“承袭制资本主义”的年代。在这样的制度下，经济的制高点不仅由财富决定，还由继承的财富决定，因而出身要比后天的努力和才能更重要。皮凯蒂指出，最富有的那批人不是因为劳动创造了财富，只是因为他们本来就富有。一句话：人生而不平等。由于资本回报率倾向于高于经济增长率，贫富不均是资本主义固有的东西，所以要彻底铲除经济中的这种不平等现象，就需要在全球范围内对富人征收累进税来保护民主社会。

Walter Scheidel沃尔特沙伊德尔;

6 Past crises are a far cry from today’s difficulties. The Black Death compressed income gaps by dramatically reducing the ratio of workers to arable land. Even in the worst possible case, covid-19 will kill far fewer than the 30-60% of Europeans felled by bubonic plague. Stockmarkets could plunge again, but it is very unlikely that they will match the collapse of nearly 90% that took place between 1929 and 1932. Yet some comparisons can still be made. The debts racked up by governments during this pandemic will in some cases reach heights last seen during the world wars. When governments eventually balance the books—and especially if they reduce debt burdens via taxation, financial repression or debt restructuring—the wealthy could find themselves footing the bill.

a far cry  =remote
a very different experience from something  

arable [ˈærəbl]adj. 适于耕种的；可开垦的
connected with growing crops such as wheat

felled   
fell[fel]
1> If trees are felled, they are cut down.
2>  If you fell someone, you knock them down, for example in a fight.
砍伐，砍倒(树木)      击倒;打倒  

bubonic plague.   淋巴腺鼠疫
/bjuːˌbɒnɪk ˈpleɪɡ/(also the plague)
​a disease spread by rats that causes a high temperature, swellings (= areas that are larger and rounder than usual) on the body and usually death

racked up = accummulate 
​to collect something, such as profits or losses in a business, or points in a competition

reach heights

book 账本
financial repression   经济收缩（美联储的一种手段）
debt restructuring  债务重组

footing the bill.  为账单付钱

Time for a redeal

redeal
重新发牌——>重新洗牌
deal /diːl/  发牌
to give cards to each player in a game of cards

7 Furthermore, the crisis could have indirect effects that influence the trajectory of inequality. In a critique of Mr Piketty’s arguments published in 2017 Marshall Steinbaum, now of the University of Utah, argued that the wars and the Depression of the 20th century mainly led to greater egalitarianism by discrediting ruling elites and the regressive policies that had enabled the rises in inequality in the first place. That created space for social democracy to bloom. Inequality fell not only because of higher taxes but also because of extensions to the welfare state.

trajectory  /trəˈdʒektəri/   发展轨迹
the curved path of something that has been fired, hit or thrown into the air

critique  /krɪˈtiːk/  评论文章
a piece of written criticism of a set of ideas, a work of art, etc.

egalitarianism  /iˌɡælɪˈteəriənɪzəm/  平等主义
​the belief that everyone is equal and should have the same rights and opportunities

discrediting
  声誉受损
discredit/dɪsˈkredɪt/
to make people stop respecting somebody/something

 regressive/rɪˈɡresɪv/
1> ​becoming or making something less advanced
2> ​(specialist) (of taxes) having less effect on the rich than on the poor

 regressive policies 累退税政策
对穷人征收更高的税，对富人征收的税更少。（与累进税相反）

in the first place
used at the end of a sentence to talk about why something was done or whether it should have been done or not
首先，从一开始; 压根儿; 固; 当初;

extensions to the welfare state.  ……的普及
welfare state.  福利性国家

8 History need not repeat itself. Governments and economic systems of all kinds have struggled to manage the pandemic effectively and equitably. But it does not take much imagination to see that if politicians allow the costs of the pandemic to be borne unequally they could sow the seeds of a transformative populist backlash. They would do well to heed the lessons of the past.

equitably/ˈekwɪtəbli/  
​in a fair and reasonable way in which everyone is treated the same

backlash  /ˈbæklæʃ/n  冲击
a strong negative reaction by a large number of people, for example to something that has recently changed in society
backlash (from somebody)
backlash (against something) 

transformative populist   变革的民粹主义者

  populist   /ˈpɒpjəlɪst/  
believing in or supporting populism (= a type of politics that claims to represent the opinions and wishes of ordinary people)

transformative 
[ˌtræns'fɔ:mətɪv]   
adj.有改革能力的，变化的，变形的;

heed /hiːd/  =notice
to pay careful attention to somebody’s advice or warning

民粹主义（populism），又译平民主义，是在19世纪的俄国兴起的一股社会思潮。民粹主义的基本理论包括：极端强调平民群众的价值和理想，把平民化和大众化作为所有政治运动和政治制度合法性的最终来源；依靠平民大众对社会进行激进改革，并把普通群众当作政治改革的唯一决定性力量；通过强调诸如平民的统一、全民公决、人民的创制权等民粹主义价值，对平民大众从整体上实施有效的控制和操纵。

大危机在人的一生中往往仅会遇到一次，决策者缺乏经验，又总是面临民粹主义、狭隘的民族主义和经济问题政治化这三座大山，政治家往往被短期民意绑架、被政治程序锁定和不敢突破意识形态束缚，这是普遍的行为模式，这一点在希腊危机中表现得最为明显。