大规模枪击事件似乎影响了公众对枪支管控的看法

Firearms and opinion
枪支与舆论

Gun massacres seem to change minds
大规模枪击事件似乎影响了公众对枪支管控的看法

But the effect is more local than national
但这些影响是局部的，而非全国。

ONE of the awful things about America’s latest mass killing, in Santa Fe High School near Houston on May 18th, is how quickly people slipped into familiar roles. Pupils and teachers cowered. Reporters and photographers tried to portray survivors’ grief and explain the shooter’s motives. Some politicians and officials lamented the toll of gun violence, while others blamed everything except guns (violent video games, abortion and too many doors in the high school were all bewailed). “A familiar tragedy sparks a familiar debate”, sighed the Texas Tribune.
据英国《经济学人》网站的消息：5月18日，美国最近的一场大规模屠杀案件在休斯敦附近圣达菲高中上演。最可怕的事件之一是公众如何迅速地进入了自己熟悉的角色。学生和老师蜷缩起来。记者和摄影师试图描述幸存者的悲痛和解释枪手的动机。有些政客和官员对枪击事件中的死者表示哀悼，而其他人则把原因归咎于除了枪支以外的一切事情（暴力视频游戏、堕胎和高中大门等诱因）。“一场熟悉的悲剧引发了一场熟悉的辩论”，《德克萨斯论坛报》感叹道。

Two things are changing, however. First, mass killings have become more common and deadlier. A database maintained by Mother Jones, a magazine, suggests that deaths in shootings with multiple victims has risen since 2006, albeit erratically. Last year was the worst yet. After just five months, the toll from mass shootings in 2018 is higher than in any full year between 1982 and 1998.
有两事情正在发生转变。首先，大规模杀伤性活动正变得更加普遍和致命。据《琼斯母亲》杂志（Mother Jones）提供的数据显示，自从2006年起，枪击案中的伤亡人数已在上升，尽管不大规律。去年是案情最为严重的一年。在2018年前5个月上演的大规模枪击案所造成的死亡人数比1982年到1998年间的任一年都要多。

The second change is in attitudes. Two pollsters, Gallup and Quinnipiac University, find that Americans have become keener on gun control. On February 20th Quinnipiac reported that 66% supported stricter controls, up from 52% in November 2015. The February poll was conducted soon after another school shooting, in Florida, and could reflect a brief reaction. It is hard to know: gun outrages have become so frequent that there are few quiet spells in which to take an opinion poll. If underlying attitudes are changing, politics could be the reason. When Democrats hold sway in Washington, perhaps some gun owners feel that their rights are threatened and dig in against any change to the law. That is not the case at the moment.
第二事情是态度在发生转变。盖洛普和昆尼皮亚克大学各自的民调发现，美国人更加倾向于对枪支实施管控。2月20日，昆尼皮亚克大学报告称，66%的受访人员对实施更为严格的枪支管控表示支持，高于2015年11月份的52%。这项二月份的民意调查是在佛罗里达州另一所校园枪击案发生不久进行的，可能体现出了公众在短期内的反应。难以确认的是：枪击暴行已上演得如此频繁，很少有平静的间隙来允许进行民意测验。如果基本面观点正在改变，政治可能是诱因。当民主党人在华盛顿占据主导地位的时候，也许一些枪支拥有者觉得自己的权利受到威胁，坚持反对任何法律的修改。如今情况不再如此。 

Mass killings do appear to change opinions locally. A study in the British Journal of Political Science by Benjamin Newman and Todd Hartman finds that Americans who live near massacres are significantly more likely to support gun restrictions (controlling for other characteristics). People who live close to two or three mass killings seem especially swayed. Importantly, the effect seems not to be partisan. This suggests that gun-control campaigners should pick their moments, and concentrate on changing city and state gun laws rather than national ones.
大规模杀伤性活动似乎改变了当地人的看法。据本杰明·纽曼和托德·哈特曼发表在《英国政治学杂志》上的一项研究表面，生活在大规模枪杀现场附近的美国人明显地更易支持枪支管控（抛开其他因素不谈）。生活在两到三场大规模杀伤性活动现场附近的人们看似尤其容易受到影响。重要的是，这种影响似乎不具有党派政治性因素。这表明，推动枪支管控的活动人士应该选择时机，集中精力变革城市和各州的枪支法，而非联邦国家的枪支法。

They have already won a tiny victory in Texas. The governor, Greg Abbott, had offered a free shotgun in a prize draw for people signing up to his re-election campaign. He is now offering a $250 gift certificate.
他们已在德克萨斯州赢得了一场微小的胜利。德克萨斯州州长格雷格·雅培（Greg Abbott）此前曾在一场抽奖活动中为支持其竞选连任的选民提供一把免费的猎枪。如今，他提供的是一张价值250美元的礼券。

https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21743109-effect-more-local-national-gun-massacres-seem-change-minds

https://abcnews.go.com/US/active-shooter-incident-santa-fe-high-school-texas/story?id=55258606

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