Cognitive bias
认知偏差
A cognitive bias refers to a systematic pattern of deviation from normor rationality in judgment, whereby inferences about other people and situationsmay be drawn in an illogical fashion. Individuals create their own "subjectivesocial reality" from their perception of the input. An individual's constructionof social reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behaviour in the socialworld. Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccuratejudgment, illogical interpretation, or what is broadly called irrationality.
认知偏差是一种系统性偏差，当我们做判断时，它会使我们偏离标准，不再理性。因为当我们引用从其他人身上或者不同的境况所得到的经验时，很可能会产生不和逻辑的判断。
每个人都将观察到的客观现实转化为他们自己的“客观社会现实”，这个自己创建的客观现实，与他们观察到的客观并不是一回事。是自己的“客观社会现实”又指导他们在真实世界中的行为。这样认知偏差可能会导致知觉的扭曲、不准确的判断、不合逻辑的解释，这些我们统称为非理性。
Some cognitive biases are presumably adaptive. Cognitive biases may leadto more effective actions in a given context. Furthermore, cognitive biases enablefaster decisions when timeliness is more valuable than accuracy, as illustratedin heuristic. Other cognitive biases are a "by-product" of human processinglimitations, resulting from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms (bounded rationality),or simply from a limited capacity for information processing.
一些认知偏差是有其适用性的。在一些特定的情况下，认知偏差可能会引发更为有效的行动。而且，在一些快速完成比准确性更重要的场合，认知偏差可以帮助我们快速做出决定，例如直觉。另外一些认知偏差则是人类信息处理局限的副产品，他可能是由于缺乏合适的心理机制（有限的理性）产生的，也可能是因为人类有限的信息处理能力而产生的。
A continually evolving list of cognitive biases has been identified overthe last six decades of research on human judgment and decision-making in cognitivescience, social psychology, and behavioral economics. Kahneman and Tversky (1996)argue that cognitive biases have efficient practical implications for areas includingclinical judgment, entrepreneurship, finance, and managemen.
通过最近六十年认知科学、社会心理学以及行为经济学关于人类判断-决策的研究，人们建立了一个认知偏差的清单，而且还在不断完善它。Kahneman和Tversky在1996年提出在像临床诊断、创造性精神探讨，理财以及管理等领域，认知偏差具有重要的实际意义。
Overview
概述
Bias arises from various processes that are sometimes difficult to distinguish.These include
偏见可能起源于有时很难的各种过程，包括
▲information-processing shortcuts (heuristics)
▲信息处理的简化（直觉）
▲mental noise
▲心里噪音
▲the brain's limited information processing capacity
▲大脑有限的信息处理能力
▲emotional and moral motivations
▲情绪或道德动机
▲social influence
▲社会的影响
The notion of cognitive biases was introduced by Amos Tversky and DanielKahneman in 1972[19] and grew out of their experience of people's innumeracy, orinability to reason intuitively with the greater orders of magnitude. Tversky, Kahnemanand colleagues demonstrated several replicable ways in which human judgments anddecisions differ from rational choice theory. Tversky and Kahneman explained humandifferences in judgement and decision making in terms of heuristics. Heuristicsinvolve mental shortcuts which provide swift estimates about the possibility ofuncertain occurrences (Baumeister & Bushman, 2010, p. 141). Heuristics are simplefor the brain to compute but sometimes introduce "severe and systematic errors"(Tversky & Kahneman, 1974, p. 1125).
认知偏差的概念由Amos Tversky以及Daniel Kahneman于1972年提出的。当时的根据是他们关于数盲症或者不能直觉地根据重要性的顺序进行思考。Tversky，Kahnemean和他们的同事向我们展示了几种人们在进行判断和做决策时几种反复出现的思维模式，这些思为模式与理性选择理论所提供的有很大的差别。Tversky和Kahenman从直觉来解释人类在做判断和决策时的这种思考模式。直觉涉及对未知事件发生的可能性进行快速评估的一种心理捷径。（Tversky和Kahneman，1974，p1125）
For example, the representativeness heuristic is defined as the tendencyto "judge the frequency or likelihood" of an occurrence by the extentof which the event "resembles the typical case" (Baumeister & Bushman,2010, p. 141). The "Linda Problem" illustrates the representativenessheuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983[21] ). Participants were given a descriptionof "Linda" that suggests Linda might well be a feminist (e.g., she issaid to be concerned about discrimination and social justice issues). They werethen asked whether they thought Linda was more likely to be a "(a) bank teller"or a "(b) bank teller and active in the feminist movement". A majoritychose answer (b). This error (mathematically, answer (b) cannot be more likely thananswer (a)) is an example of the “conjunction fallacy”; Tversky and Kahneman arguedthat respondents chose (b) because it seemed more "representative" ortypical of persons who might fit the description of Linda. The representativenessheuristic may lead to errors such as activating stereotypes and inaccurate judgementsof others (Haselton et al., 2005, p. 726).
例如，代表性原则偏误就是指人们趋向于利用某事件与另一典型事件的类似程度来判断这个事件发生的频率和可能性（Baumeister和Bushman，2010）。“Linda问题”像我们展示了什么是代表性原则偏误（Tversky和Kahneman，1983）。被试者被告知关于琳达的一些情况，其中暗示琳达可能是一个女权主义者，例如她曾表示关注歧视和社会公平的问题。接下来被试者要回答他们认为琳达更可能是一个（a）银行出纳员还是（b）热衷于女权运动的银行出纳员。大部分被试选择了（b）。这个错误（根据数学判断，答案b的可能性不可能大于答案a，因为a包含b）是“合取谬误”的一个典型例子。Tversky和Kahneman认为应答者之所以选择b是因为更能代表描述中像琳达这样的人。代表性原则偏误可能会导致思维固化或错误评价其他人。
Alternatively, critics of Kahneman and Tversky such as Gerd Gigerenzerargue that heuristics should not lead us to conceive of human thinking as riddledwith irrational cognitive biases, but rather to conceive rationality as an adaptivetool that is not identical to the rules of formal logic or the probability calculus.[22]Nevertheless, experiments such as the “Linda problem” grew into the heuristics andbiases research program which spread beyond academic psychology into other disciplinesincluding medicine and political science.
此外，Kahneman的反对者如Gerd Gigerenzer则认为直觉不能让我们把人类的思维想象成充满了非理性的认知偏差，它应该让我们意识到理性是一个自动适应的工具，并不完全是逻辑的规则和可能性的计算。
Types
类型
Biases can be distinguished on a number of dimensions. For example, thereare biases specific to groups (such as the risky shift) as well as biases at theindividual level.
认知偏差可以在许多维度加以划分。例如，有些偏差只影响团体（例如风险转移），有些偏差则作用在个人层面上。
Some biases affect decision-making, where the desirability of optionshas to be considered (e.g., sunk costs fallacy). Others such as illusory correlationaffect judgment of how likely something is, or of whether one thing is the causeof another. A distinctive class of biases affect memory,[23] such as consistencybias (remembering one's past attitudes and behavior as more similar to one's presentattitudes).
某些认知偏差影响决策，此时必须考虑选择的愿望（例如沉没成本谬误）。
某些认知偏差例如虚假关联影响我们判断某事件的可能性或者一个事件和另一个事件的因果关系。
一系列特定的偏差还会影响我们的记忆，例如一致性偏误（把某人过去的态度和行为作为他现在的态度而记住）。
Some biases reflect a subject's motivation,[24] for example, the desirefor a positive self-image leading to egocentric bias[25] and the avoidance of unpleasantcognitive dissonance. Other biases are due to the particular way the brain perceives,forms memories and makes judgments. This distinction is sometimes described as "hotcognition" versus "cold cognition", as motivated reasoning can involvea state of arousal.
一些认知偏差反映了人的主观动机，例如，希望自己有一个正面的形象导致自我中心偏误，想要逃避不愉快导致认知失调。
还有一些偏误是因为我们大脑观察、形成记忆以及做出判断的特殊机制而产生的。这一差别有时候被叫做“热认知”和“冷认知”，因为动机性型推理可能需要一种“唤起”的状态。
Among the "cold" biases,
在冷认知中，
▲some are due to ignoring relevant information (e.g. neglect of probability)
▲一些事因为忽视相关的信息（例如忽略某种哦你更可能性）
▲some involve a decision or judgement being affected by irrelevant information(for example the framing effect where the same problem receives different responsesdepending on how it is described; or the distinction bias where choices presentedtogether have different outcomes than those presented separately)
▲一些事因为决策或做判断时被一些不相关的信息误导（例如框架效应-相同的问题根据问题描述方式的不同会得到不同的答案，区分偏差-将选项摆放在一起和把他们分开呈现将得到不同的答案）
▲others give excessive weight to an unimportant but salient feature ofthe problem (e.g., anchoring)
▲另外的一些认知偏差过分重视问题中那些不重要但是很显著的特征（例如锚定效应）
The fact that some biases reflect motivation, and in particular the motivationto have positive attitudes to oneself[25] accounts for the fact that many biasesare self-serving or self-directed (e.g. illusion of asymmetric insight, self-servingbias, projection bias). There are also biases in how subjects evaluate in-groupsor out-groups; evaluating in-groups as more diverse and "better" in manyrespects, even when those groups are arbitrarily-defined (ingroup bias, outgrouphomogeneity bias).
一些偏见反映了人们的主观动机，特别是倾向于那些对于自己是正面的动机，这就解释了很多偏差都是自私自利的或者自我主导的（例如，信息不对称错觉，自我（服务）偏差和投射/预测偏差）这一事实。主体如何评估群体内的人和群体外的人也会产生偏差。被试会认为群体内的伙伴更多样性而且在很多方面表现得更优秀，即使这个群体是被随意捏造出来的(派系偏见，外集团同质性偏见)。
Some cognitive biases belong to the subgroup of attentional biases whichrefer to the paying of increased attention to certain stimuli. It has been shown,for example, that people addicted to alcohol and other drugs pay more attentionto drug-related stimuli. Common psychological tests to measure those biases arethe Stroop Task[26][27] and the Dot Probe Task.
一些认知偏差属于注意力偏差亚类，注意力偏差是更多的关注某种刺激。例如，研究证实沉溺于究竟和毒品的人更关注药物有关的刺激。常见的用于测试这类偏见的方法有叫色任务和点侦测任务。
List
列表
比较常见的认知偏差的研究
Fundamental attribution error(FAE)
Also known as the correspondence bias (Baumeister & Bushman, 2010) is the tendency for people to over-emphasize personality-based explanations for behaviours observed in others. At the same time, individuals under-emphasize the role and power of situational influences on the same behaviour. Jones and Harris’ (1967)[28]classic study illustrates the FAE. Despite being made aware that the target’s speech direction (pro-Castro/anti-Castro) was assigned to the writer, participants ignored the situational pressures and attributed pro-Castro attitudes to the writer when the speech represented such attitudes.
基本归因错误（FAQ）
也被称为对应（符合）偏差，对应偏差是指人们倾向于过度强调用个性来解释观察到的别人的行为，同时，我们又低估了对于相同行为的情境因素的力量和地位。Jones和Harris，1967年的经典实验描述了归因错误。尽管人们被告知作者被指定了演讲方向（支持或者反对卡斯特罗），当演讲表现出支持卡斯特罗的态度时，被试者忽略作者受到的环境压力，直接认为作者是支持卡斯特罗的。
Confirmation bias
The tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. In addition, individuals may discredit information that does not support their views.[29]The confirmation bias is related to the concept ofcognitive dissonance. Whereby, individuals may reduce inconsistency by searching for information which re-confirms their views (Jermias, 2001, p. 146).
确认偏误/证实偏见
人们在搜索和解释信息的时候，会想办法去证实他们事先形成的观念。另外，个人也不相信那些否定他们观点的信息。确认偏误涉及到内心冲突的概念。凭此，个人可以通过搜索支持自己所持观点的信息降低内心的矛盾。
biasThe tendency to claim more responsibility for successes than failures. It may also manifest itself as a tendency for people to evaluate ambiguous information in a way beneficial to their interests.
自我服务偏差/自利偏差
相较于失败，人们倾向于更多地为自己的成功负责。也可以表现为一种趋势，人们会用一种有利于自己利益的方式来分析模棱两可的信息。
When one's evaluation of the logical strength of an argument is biased by their belief in the truth or falsity of the conclusion.
信念偏差
当人们分析某一个论点的逻辑推理是否有力的时候，他们回因为是否相信这个结论而产生偏见。
Using a too-narrow approach and description of the situation or issue.
框架（影响/依赖）偏差
总是用很少的方法来解决问题、描述情境。
Sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, is the inclination to see past events as being predictable.
比较常见的认知偏差的研究
后见之明偏差
有的时候叫做“我一开始就知道/我早就知道”效应，相信过去的事情都是可以被预测的。
A 2012 Psychological Bulletin article suggests that at least 8 seemingly unrelated biases can be produced by the same information-theoretic generative mechanism.[15]It is shown that noisy deviations in the memory-based information processes that convert objective evidence (observations) into subjective estimates (decisions) can produce regressive conservatism, the belief revision(Bayesian conservatism),illusory correlations,illusory superiority(better-than-average effect) and worse-than-average effect， subadditivity effect, exaggeratered expectation, over confidence, and the hard-easy effect.
2012年Psychological Bulletin上面的一篇文章指出至少有8中看起来不相关的偏见源于相同的信息-理论生产机理。研究表明，在我们大脑以记忆为基础的信息处理过程中，将客观证据（观察到的现象）转变为主管的评价（决定）的各种偏见能够产生倒退的保守主义、信念修正（贝叶斯保守主义）、相关的错觉、虚幻的优越感（比平均优秀效应）和差于平均效应、subadditivity效应、过分相信不符合现实的期望以及轻视困难的效应。
Practical significance
实践意义
Many social institutions rely on individuals to make rationaljudgments.
很多社会制度的基础是个体能够做出理性的判断。
The securities regulation regime largely assumes that all investorsact as perfectly, rational persons. In truth, actual investors face cognitivelimitations from biases, heuristics, and framing effects.
很大程度上，证券管理机构认为投资者都是完美的理性人。但真实的投资者要面对由偏见、直觉和认知框架等产生的的认知限制。
A fair jury trial, for example, requires that the jury ignore irrelevant features of the case, weigh the relevant features appropriately, consider different possibilities open-mindedly and resist fallacies such as appeal to emotion.The various biases demonstrated in these psychological experiments suggest that people will frequently fail to do all these things.[31]However, they fail to do so in systematic, directional ways that are predictable.
例如，要想陪审团作出公正的判决，需要陪审团忽略掉那些与案件无关的细节、正确地权衡与案件相关的证据、开放性地考虑各种可能性并且抵挡各种思维方式的谬误（例如诉诸情感）。在这些心理学试验中人们表现出了各种各样的偏见，这说明通常情况下，人们不能达到上述的要求。但是，他们的不能做到这些事情的行为是系统的、有指向性的而且可以被预测的。
Cognitive biases are also related to the persistence ofsuperstition, to large social issues such as prejudice, and they also work as ahindrance in the acceptance of scientific non-intuitive knowledge by thepublic.
对于很多类似如偏见这样的重大社会问题，认知偏差还和一些顽固的迷信有关，而且这些新年仍然阻碍人们接受科学的、非直觉的知识。
However, in some academic disciplines, the study of bias is verypopular. For instance, bias is a wide spread phenomenon and well-studied,because most decisions that concern the minds and hearts of entrepreneurs are computationally intractable
但是，在一些学术科目中，对于偏见的研究相当受欢迎的。偏见是一种普遍存在的现象而且对它的研究也很充分，因为大部分涉及企业家想法和心理的决策是很难用计算来理解的。
Reducing
降低认知偏差
Similar to Gigerenzer (1996), Haselton et al. (2005) state the content and direction of cognitivebiases are not "arbitrary" (p. 730). Moreover, cognitive biases can be controlled. Debiasing is atechnique which aims to decrease biases by encouraging individuals to use controlled processing compared to automatic processing (Baumeister &Bushman, 2010, p. 155).[35]In relation to reducing the FAE, monetary incentives and informing participants they will be held accountable for theirattributions[37]have been linked to the increase of accurate attributions. Training has also shown to reduce cognitive bias. Morewedge and colleagues (2015) found that research participants exposed to one-shot training interventions, such aseducational videos and debiasing games that taught mitigating strategies,exhibited significant reductions in their commission of six cognitive biases immediately and up to 3 months later.
与Gigerenzer(1976)和Haselton等人（2005）对认知偏差的呢内容和方向的说明类似，认知偏差并不是随意的。更重要的是，我们可以控制认知偏差。去除认知偏差是指通过鼓励人们用控制的过程而不是自动化的过程来实现减少偏见的一种技巧(Baumeister和Bushman，2010，p155)。对于减少基本归因错误，货币激励以及要求被试对自己的归因做出解释时有利于增加正确的归因。研究表明训练有助于减少认知偏差。Morewedge和他的同事们2015年发现，接受一次性干预训练（如教学片和教授缓和策略的去偏差化游戏）的受试者马上或最多三个月后，就能够大幅度地降低六种认知偏差的影响。
Cognitive bias modificationrefers to the process of modifying cognitivebiases in healthy people and also refers to a growing area of psychological(non-pharmaceutical) therapies for anxiety, depression and addiction calledcognitive bias modification therapy (CBMT). CBMT is sub-group of therapieswithin a growing area of psychological therapies based on modifying cognitiveprocesses with or without accompanying medication and talk therapy, sometimesreferred to as applied cognitive processing therapies (ACPT). Althoughcognitive bias modification can refer to modifying cognitive processes inhealthy individuals, CBMT is a growing area of evidence-based psychological therapy,in which cognitive processes are modified to relieve suffering[39][40]from seriousdepression,[41]anxiety,[42]and addiction.[43]CBMT techniques are technology assisted therapies that are deliveredvia a computer with or without clinician support. CBM combines evidence andtheory from the cognitive model of anxiety,[44]cognitive neuroscience,[45]and attentional models.[46]
认知偏差矫治（CMBT）指的是在健康人群中改善认知偏差的过程，同时也指正在发展的一种对紧张、抑郁以及嗜好心理（非药物）治疗方法。CBMT是正在发展的心理治疗的一个次级学科，CBMT的基础是改变认知的过程，其中可以伴随药物和谈话治疗也可以没有。有的时候它也被叫做应用认知过程矫治（ACPT）。CBMT结合了焦虑、认知神经科学以及注意力的模型的理论和证据，而且运用了先进的技术通过电脑来实现治疗。
网友评论