El Nino, a Spanish term for "the Christ child", was named by South American fishermen who noticed that the global weather pattern, which happens every two to seven years, reduced the amount of fishes caught around Christmas. El Nino sees warm water, collected over several years in the western Pacific, flow back eastwards when winds that normally blow westwards weaken, or sometimes the other way round.
厄尔尼诺（El Nino），源于西班牙语，原意是“圣婴”，由南美渔民命名。他们注意到，这种每两到七年发生一次的全球气候模式，会导致圣诞节前后捕鱼数量减少。厄尔尼诺预示着几年来在西太平洋集聚而成的一股暖流，当正常的西风减弱时会向东回流，或者有时候相反。
The weather effects, both good and bad, are felt in many places. Rich countries gain more from powerful Nino, on balance, than they lose. A study found that a strong Nino in 1997 helped American's economy grow by 15 billion, partly because of better agricultural harvests: farmers in the Midwest gained from extra rain. The total rise in agricultural incomes in rich countries is greater than the fall in poor ones.
许多地方都能感受到天气的影响，无论好坏。总的来说，富国从强厄尔尼诺中获得的收益大于损失。一项研究发现，1997年的强厄尔尼诺现象帮助美国经济增长了150亿美元，部分原因是农业收成更好：中西部的农民从额外的降雨中获益。富国农业收入的总体增长要大于穷国的下降。
But in Indonesia extremely dry forests are in flames. A multi-year drought in south-east Brazil is becoming worse. Though heavy rains brought about by El Nino may relieve the drought in California, they are likely to cause surface flooding and other disasters.
但在印尼，极度干旱导致森林燃烧，巴西东南部的长年干旱情况越来越糟。虽然厄尔尼诺带来的暴雨可能会缓解加利福尼亚州的干旱，但它们可能会导致地表洪水和其他灾难。
The most recent powerful Nino, in 1997-98, killed around 21,000 people and caused damage worth $36 billion around the globe. But such Ninos come with months of warning, and so much is known about how they happen that governments can prepare. According to the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), however, just 12% of disaster-relief funding in the past two decades has gone on reducing risks in advance, rather than recovery and rebuilding afterwards. This is despite evidence that a dollar spent on risk-reduction saves at least two on reconstruction.
最近一次强厄尔尼诺现象发生在1997-98年，造成约21000人死亡，全球损失约360亿美元。但这类厄尔尼诺现象伴随着数月的警告，人们对其发生的情况比较了解，政府可以做好准备。然而，据海外发展研究所（ODI）称，过去20年中，只有12%的救灾资金用于减少风险，而不是事后的恢复和重建。尽管有证据表明，在降低风险上花一美元至少可以节省两美元用于重建。
Simple improvements to infrastructure can reduce the spread of disease. Better sewers make it less likely that heavy rain is followed by an outbreak of the disease of bad stomach. Stronger bridges mean villages are less likely to be left without food and medicine after floods. According to a paper in 2011 by Mr Hsiang and co-authors, civil conflict is related to El Nino's harmful effects-and the poorer the country, the stronger the link. Though the relationship may not be causal, helping divided communities to prepare for disasters would at least reduce the risk that those disasters are followed by killing and wounding people. Since the poorest are least likely to make up for their losses from disasters linked to El Nino, reducing ther losses needs to bethe priority.
简单改进一下基础设施就可以减少疾病的传播。更好的下水道减少大雨后胃病爆发的可能性。桥梁越坚固，洪水后村庄就越不可能没有食物和药品。2011年，项先生和合著者发表的一篇论文指出，国内冲突与厄尔尼诺的有害影响有关，国家越穷，两者之间的联系就越紧密。虽然这种关系可能不是因果关系，帮助分裂的社区为灾难做好准备至少可以减少这些灾难之后造成人员伤亡的风险。由于最贫穷的人最不可能弥补与厄尔尼诺有关的灾难造成的损失，因此减少其他损失需要成为重中之重。
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