<译>未来VR的五大预测

Apps, Airplanes, and More: 5 Predictionsfor Mobile VR’s Near Future

未来VR的五大预测

2016 has already started off as an excitingyear for smartphone-based VR. Google Cardboard and Samsung Gear VR have beenaround for a while now and are starting to get large marketing pushes fromtheir creators. I still think we’re in the early stages of this technology andwanted to discuss where I think mobile VR is headed.

2016年作为令人兴奋的基于智能手机的VR时代已然开启。谷歌纸板和三星Gear VR陆续上市，并开始进行大范围的市场推广。我仍然认为我们尚处在这项技术的早期阶段，来讨论下我认为的移动VR引领的新风尚。

1. Mobile VR Will Be the Most Widely Used Form of VR

移动VR将成为VR最广泛使用的形式

Mobile VR holds a lot of potential becauseof its easy-of-use, low-cost, and portability. I firmly believe it’s going tobe the dominant form of VR in terms of reach and engagement. It’s also likelyto be the first VR experience for most people and the first thing that comes tomind when people think of VR.

移动VR拥有很大的潜力，因为它容易使用，成本低，和便携性。我坚信在触达和参与方面将成为VR的主要形式。对大多数人来说可能是第一次VR体验，也是当人们想起VR最先想到的事情。

Since most users already carry apowerful-enough phone around with them, they will just require a low-costhardware that the phone plugs into to use the VR software functionality theirphone already provides. The Google Cardboard is effectively free (withlimitations) and the Gear VR is reasonably priced at $99, making both optionsan impulsive decision for consumers that already own a compatible phone ($500normally). This is significantly cheaper than the Oculus Rift ($599) and HTCVive ($799) and also does not have the added cost of a powerful PC ($1,000-$1,500).The Sony Playstation VR will likely be cheaper than the above options andrequires a cheaper Playstation 4 ($350). Even with the lower-cost, mobile VR isstill cheaper than any of the higher-end experiences.

由于大多数用户已经随身携带一个功能强大的手机，他们只需要一个低成本的硬件，插入手机使用VR软件的功能。谷歌纸板实际上是免费的（有限制）和Gear VR价格合理仅售$99，使得已经拥有兼容手机（$ 500通常）的消费者很容易在二者之间做出冲动的决定。这比Oculus Rift（$599）和HTC Vive（$799）便宜多了，也无需额外购买强大的PC（$1,000- $1,500）。索尼PlayStation VR可能会比上述选项更便宜，需要一个更便宜的Playstation4（$350）。即使成本较低，移动VR仍然比其他任何高端的体验更便宜。

The main delayer of adoption right now isthe availability of hardware supported (e.g. Gear VR, not Google Cardboard) VRheadsets for phones. The catalyst here will be a GearVR-like device foriPhones. Apple hasn’t entered this market yet but has already indicated thatthey are looking at the space.

目前采用的主要延迟器为硬件可支持的手机VR头显（例如Gear VR，而不是谷歌纸板）。这里的催化剂用于iPhone的类如gear VR的装置。苹果公司还没有进入这个市场，但已经表示，他们正在考虑发展的空间。

2. The First Killer Use-case for Mobile VR Will Be on Planes and in Airports

移动VR将首先在机场和飞机上进行使用

Airline passengers already try to isolate themselves on flights and in the airport. Laptops, DVD players, and tablets arecommonly seen in these contexts. Mobile VR offers an improved experience forpassengers:

A (virtual) screen that’s much larger thana tablet or seat back display and not as bulky as a laptop or large tablet.Users can be virtually sitting in their living room or a movie theater watchingshows

Isolation from other passengers. VR’snormally anti-social isolation works in the user’s favor in this context.

Uses your phone, so can connect toin-flight wifi for flights with bring-your-own-device technology (such as mostUnited flights)

飞机上的乘客已经试图在航班和机场孤立自我。笔记本电脑，DVD播放器和平板随处可见。移动VR将为乘客提供更佳的体验：

一个（虚拟）屏幕，比平板电脑或椅背显示屏更大，又不像笔记本电脑或平板电脑那样笨重。用户几乎可坐在自己的客厅或电影院观看演出。

与其他乘客隔离。在这方面VR通常因反社会隔离工作而受到用户的青睐。

使用您的手机，这样可以使自己的移动设备连接航班上的wifi（如美国大部分航班）。

3. Major Mobile App Developers Will Build aVR-mode into Their Existing Mobile Apps Rather than Deploy a New VR-only App

主流移动应用开发者将创建VR模式适配现有应用，而非部署全新仅用于VR的应用

Within a few years there will be multipletypes and brands of mobile VR headsets. Given this, rather than create brandnew apps for new stores, I predict most app developers will opt to insteadinclude a VR mode within their existing mobile apps that are triggered once thephone has been inserted into a HMD. An example would be Hulu or Netflixentering VR Theater mode once the phone has been inserted into a VR headsetlike the Gear VR. This has several advantages:

You can update your existing users to beVR-ready without getting them to download a new app

Your existing push notification channelsand permissions will persist

It’s a better user experience for the enduser because they only have a single app to open

You maintain your chart ranking and searchranking in the App Store listings

几年之内将会有多种类型和品牌的移动虚拟现实头显。鉴于此，而不是创造新的商店品牌新的应用程序，我预测大多数应用程序开发者会在现有移动应用内加入VR模式，手机插入HMD时即可触发。一个例子是Hulu或Netflix的进入VR剧场模式，一旦手机已插入VR头显，比如像gear VR。具有以下几个优点：

您可以更新现有用户使用VR而非下载新的应用程序

您现有的推送通知渠道和权限将继续有效

这是为终端用户提供更好的用户体验，因为他们只有单一的应用程序打开

维护您在App Store排名列表中的图表排名和搜索排名

4. The Biggest Producers of Mobile VR GamesWon’t Be the Biggest Mobile Game Companies

最大的移动VR游戏厂商未必是最大的移动游戏公司

Similar to how the largest mobile companieswere not the largest social gaming companies, there’s enough of a DNA changefrom mobile to VR in terms of design and execution that new, VR-focusedcompanies will emerge and see greater success. Small teams with a focus onexperimentation and exploiting early platform advantages will win here over AAA/ higher-production content.

The largest mobile games (Words withFriends, Angry Birds, HayDay, Candy Crush, etc.) were all started bymobile-first companies that iterated and experimented before they had a hit. Ittook several years after the iPhone was released before platform-definingtitles were launched: Words with Friend/Angry Birds both launched 2 years afterthe iPhone and Candy Crush/HayDay launched 5 years after.

Since VR has unique design challenges,there will likely be an equivalent experimentation period before a big winnerin mobile VR gaming appears.

类似于最大的移动公司并不是最大的社交游戏公司，有足够的来自移动转变到VR的DNA，在设计和执行全新的，以VR为核心的企业将脱颖而出，见证更大的成功。小团队侧重于实验和早期开发平台的优势，将赢得AAA /高生产的内容。

最大的手机游戏（Words with Friends，愤怒的小鸟，卡通农场，糖果粉碎传奇等）都是由首批移动公司开始，然后迭代和尝试，最终走红的。它花了好几年在iPhone发布后，才确定在平台发布的名字：Words with Friend/愤怒的小鸟是在苹果上市两年后发布，糖果粉碎传奇/卡通农场则是在5年后。

由于VR具有独特的设计挑战，在移动VR游戏大赢家出现之前，有可能会有同样的试验期。

5. Positional and, Eventually, HandTracking Will Come to Mobile VR

移动VR将兼容定位追踪、头部追踪功能

Positional tracking is not much of aprediction because it is already confirmed to be in development by Oculus CTOJohn Carmack.

Positional tracking for mobile VR isimportant because it allows developers to create a whole new class ofexperiences based on head movement. It’s similar to how after the iPhone addedGPS support, a whole new set of apps based on mapping were made possible.

By that measure, hand tracking is even moreinteresting. When users have the ability to interact with a virtual world viatheir hands, an endless number of new applications will be made possible. Appslike Tilt Brush or DJ’ing in VR expand the possibility of VR. This tracking isalso how mobile VR, combined with a cellphone’s camera, can eventually dovetailinto mobile-based AR. Google’s Project Tango is attempting to do this. Handtracking is a much more intuitive way of interacting with VR and goes a longway to help create presence for the user.

Leap Motion and other gesture trackinghardware are fairly compact and could be integrated into a mobile VR headset toenable this tech. No company has announced this officially yet but all signspoint to it happening eventually.

定位追踪算不上太大的预测，因为已经由Oculus公司CTO约翰·卡马克证实了。

移动VR位置跟踪很重要，因为它允许开发者创建一种全新的基于头部运动的体验。它类似于iPhone增加GPS的支持，通过一组全新的基于映射应用程序得以成为可能。

通过这一措施，手势追踪将更加精彩。当用户具备通过自己的双手与虚拟世界互动的能力，全新的无穷多的应用将成为可能。像Tilt Brush或VR DJ'ing等应用拓展了VR的可能性。这种跟踪也是移动VR与手机的摄像头相结合，才能最终形成基于移动的AR。谷歌的Tango项目试图做到这一点。手势跟踪与VR进行交互，是更直观的方式，还要走一段很长路来创建用户的存在感。

Leap Motion和其他手势跟踪硬件都相当紧凑，可以集成到移动VR头显来启用该技术。尚未有任何一家公司正式发布，但所有迹象都表明它最终发生。