The benefits for human society are likely to be immense. AI doctors could provide far better and cheaper healthcare for billions of people,particularly for those who currently receive no healthcare at all. Thanks to learning algorithms and biometric sensors, a poor villager in an underdeveloped country might come to enjoy far better healthcare via her smartphone than the richest person in the world gets today from the most advanced urban hospital.
人类社会可能获益极大。人工智能医生能为数十亿人提供更为质优价廉的医疗服务,特别是对于那些当前完全没有接受医疗服务的人来说更是如此。有了学习算法和生物统计传感器,欠发达国家的一位贫穷的村民,通过自己的智能手机接受到的医疗服务,可能比当今世界首富从最先进的城市医院里接受到的医疗服务好得多。
【林俊宏】
这很可能会给人类带来巨大的好处。人工智能医生能为几十亿人带来更好、更便宜的医疗保健服务,特别是那些目前根本没有医疗保健服务可用的人。凭借学习算法和生物传感器,就算是某个经济不发达国家的贫困村民,也可能通过智能手机获得良好的医疗保健服务,而且比目前最富有的人在最先进的城市医院所获得的服务水平有过之而无不及。
Similarly, self-driving vehicles could provide people with much better transport services, and in particular reduce mortality from traffic accidents. Today close to 1.25 million people are killed annually in traffic accidents (twice the number killed by war, crime and terrorism combined). More than 90 per cent of these accidents are caused by very human errors: somebody drinking alcohol and driving, somebody texting a message while driving, somebody falling asleep at the wheel, somebody daydreaming instead of paying attention to the road. The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimated in 2012 that 31 per cent of fatal crashes in the USA involved alcohol abuse, 30 per cent involved speeding, and 21 per cent involved distracted drivers. Self-driving vehicles will never do any of these things. Though they suffer from their own problems and limitations, and though some accidents are inevitable, replacing all human drivers by computers is expected to reduce deaths and mortality injuries on the road by about 90 per cent. In other words,switching to autonomous vehicles is likely to save the lives of a million people every year.
同样,自动驾驶汽车可以为人们提供更好的交通服务,特别是能够降低交通事故死亡率。如今,每年因交通事故造成的死亡人数接近125万(是战争、犯罪和恐怖主义造成死亡人数总和的两倍)。超过90%的交通事故是由人为错误造成的:如醉驾、一边开车一边发信息、疲劳驾驶、做白日梦而不是关注路况。2012年,据美国国家公路交通安全管理局估计,在美国致命的交通事故原因中,酒驾占31%,超速占30%,分心占21%。自动驾驶汽车永远不会出现上述现象。虽然它们也有自身的问题和局限,有些事故无法避免,但是如果用计算机代替所有司机,预计可以降低约90%的交通死亡和致命伤。换言之,采用自动驾驶汽车每年可能挽救100万人的生命。
【林俊宏】
同样,自动驾驶汽车能让交通服务质量大幅提升,特别是能够降低车祸死亡率。如今,每年有将近125万人死于车祸(足足是战争、犯罪和恐怖袭击死亡人数的两倍)。而在这些事故中,超过90%是认为造成的:有人酒驾,有人边开车边看手机,有人疲劳驾驶,有人开车的时候只顾着发呆。根据美国国家公路交通安全管理局2012年的统计,全美致死车祸中有31%出于滥用酒精,30%出于超速,21%出于驾驶分心。而这些错误,自动驾驶汽车永远都不会犯。虽然自动驾驶汽车仍有其自身的问题和局限性,也免不了会有些事故,但根据预测,如果把所有驾驶工作完全交由计算机处理,将能够减少约90%的道路伤亡。话句话说,只要全面改用自动驾驶汽车,每年就能少死亡100万人。
Hence it would be madness to block automation in fields such as transport and healthcare just in order to protect human jobs. After all, what we ultimately ought to protect is humans – not jobs. Redundant drivers and doctors will just have to find something else to do.
因此,为了保护人类的工作而阻止交通和医疗等行业实行自动化,这种做法愚蠢之极。毕竟,我们最终要保护的是人,而不是工作。多余的司机和医生将不得不另谋出路。
【林俊宏】
因此,如果只是为了保住工作就拒绝交通和医疗保健等领域的自动化,绝对是不明智之举。毕竟,我们真正该保护的是人类,而不是工作。如果自动化让司机和医生变得无用武之地,就让他们找点儿别的事来做吧。
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