《On Regular Investing》翻译与划分(021篇

今天我们来到《On Regular Investing》 第一章第五节《定投策略无需改良》。本节开头部分有删减。

定投策略目前已是世界上最简单易行有效的策略。无论你在价格最高处购买，还是最低处买入，持续定投，最终一定会盈利，并且收益越来越多。

定投策略无需改良，因为它已经不能再简单了—— 不信？试试看！

我本人便是贯彻执行按照定投策略的，这是
定投458天的收益率:

原文 :

1.5 The Strategy of Regular Investing Does Not Need to Be Further Improved

Any efforts to improve the strategy of regular investing are futile.

Yet many of them still couldn't resist being driven by this simple thought: wouldn't it be better if I bought a little more when the price drops?

Let's discuss why this "improvement" to the strategy of regular investing isn't actually an improvement at all. First of all, each time we use the current price as a reason for making a decision, we are always actually making the decision after the fact. Even more importantly, we are neglecting an important fact: the short-term direction of the price after we make our decision is an independent event, and not tied to the prior change in price. After we buy, the price could go up, go down, or stay the same -- we don't know!

Someone who increased their investment amount in July after a price drop would have discovered in September that their "improvement" to the strategy was useless and actually cost them money, because the increased investment in July actually ended up increasing their average cost.

Whether or not an investor has a clear grasp of statistical probability is the factor that has the greatest influence on the accuracy of their decisions. Sadly, too many people don't pay enough attention to this basic knowledge, and they have no idea that this lack of knowledge causes them so much trouble and grief.

A person who understands statistical probability couldn't help but laugh at the following phenomenon:

Some people, lacking basic knowledge of statistical probability, try their best to prove on which day of the week prices are lowest.

Someone made a chart, and did some programming in Python, to support the following conclusion:

After analyzing every 350-day period of weekly regular investing in bitcoin over the 900-day period from July 17th, 2010, to January 2nd, 2013, the following conclusions have been reached:

Investing on Monday performed 1.2% better than the average of the other days. Furthermore, it is best to avoid Sunday, as Sunday performed 0.8% worse than average, perhaps because people have more time on Sunday, or perhaps because they feel more optimistic on Sunday.

Are these sorts of conclusions meaningful? It's basically impossible to use logic to convince people who don't understand the independence of random events, but in an article written in 1984, Warren Buffett gave a fun and yet deep example that might help:

I would like you to imagine a national coin-flipping contest. Let’s assume we get 225 million Americans up tomorrow morning and we ask them all to wager a dollar. They go out in the morning at sunrise, and they all call the flip of a coin. If they call correctly, they win a dollar from those who called wrong. Each day the losers drop out, and on the subsequent day the stakes build as all previous winnings are put on the line. After ten flips on ten mornings, there will be approximately 220,000 people in the United States who have correctly called ten flips in a row. They each will have won a little over $1,000.

Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about this, human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive members of the opposite sex what their technique is, and what marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping.

Assuming that the winners are getting the appropriate rewards from the losers, in another ten days we will have 215 people who have successfully called their coin flips 20 times in a row and who, by this exercise, each have turned one dollar into a little over 225 million would have been lost, $225 million would have been won.

By then, this group will really lose their heads. They will probably write books on “How I turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days Working Thirty Seconds a Morning.” Worse yet, they’ll probably start jetting around the country attending seminars on efficient coin-flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, “If it can’t be done, why are there 215 of us?”

In addition to not fitting our basic understanding of statistical probability, another reason why "invest on Monday and not Sunday" is unlikely to work is the following:

If it is really effective, then everybody will start doing it, and then it will no longer be effective.

生词 :

1. futile 英 [ˈfjuːtaɪl] adj. 徒劳的；无效的；
2. resist 英 [rɪˈzɪst] v. 反对；抵制；忍住；
3. driven 英 [ˈdrɪvn] adj. 受…影响的；
4. discuss 英 [dɪˈskʌs] v. 讨论，商量；阐述；
5. First of all 首先；
6. current price 当前价格；
7. neglecting [nɪˈglekt] v. n. 忽略；忽视；
8. independent event 英 [ˌɪndiˈpendənt iˈvent] [计] 独立事件；
9. prior 英 [ˈpraɪə(r)] adj. 优先的；占先的；在…之前；
10. cost 英 [kɒst] v. 使丧失；使损失；
11. grasp 英 [ɡrɑːsp] v. n. 理解；掌握；
12. statistical probability 英 [stəˈtɪstɪkəl ˌprɔbəˈbiliti] 统计概率;
13. grief 英 [ɡriːf] n. 悲伤; 悲痛; 悲伤的事;
14. following conclusion 以下结论;
15. analyzing 英 ['ænəlaɪzɪŋ] v. n. 分析;
16. performed [pəˈfɔ:md] v. 执行; 履行;
17. Furthermore 英 [ˌfɜːðəˈmɔː(r)] adv. 此外; 而且; 与此同时;
18. optimistic 英 [ˌɒptɪˈmɪstɪk] adj. 乐观的;
19. sorts 英 ['sɔ:ts] n. v. 分类;
20. wager 英 [ˈweɪdʒə(r)] n. 赌金，赌注; v.打赌,下注;
21. subsequent 英 [ˈsʌbsɪkwənt] adj. 后来的; 随后的;
22. modest 英 [ˈmɒdɪst] adj. 不太大的; 适中的; 谦虚的;
23. cocktail 英 [ˈkɒkteɪl] n. 鸡尾酒; 凉菜;
24. occasionally 英 [əˈkeɪʒnəli] adv. 偶尔; 偶然; 有时候;
25. attractive 英 [əˈtræktɪv] adj. 有魅力的; 好看的; 吸引人的;
26. opposite sex 英 [ˈɔpəzit seks] 异性;
27. technique 英 [tekˈniːk] n. 技术; 技能;
28. marvelous insights 非凡的洞察力；
29. appropriate rewards 适当的奖励 ；
30. tackling 英 ['tæklɪŋ] v. 应付; 与某人交涉; 向某人提起（问题或困难情况）;
31. skeptical 英 [ˈskeptɪkl] adj. 怀疑性的，好怀疑的；
32. In addition 英 [in əˈdiʃən] adv.另外；除此之外；并且；

参考划分与翻译 :

第一句:

Any efforts (主) to improve the strategy of regular investing (定) are (系) futile (表).

任何改进定投策略的努力都是徒劳的。

第二句:

Yet (状) many of them (主) still couldn't resist being driven (谓) by this simple thought (状): wouldn't it be better if I bought a little more when the price drops (同位语从句) ?

然而，很多人仍然受这样天真的想法所驱动 ：若是我在这个价格下跌的时候多买一点不是更好吗？

第三句:

Let's（主）discuss（谓）why this "improvement" to the strategy of regular investing isn't actually an improvement at all（宾从）.

我们来讨论为什么定投策略根本无需任何改良。

第四句:

First of all（状）, each time（状）we（主）use（谓）the current price（宾）as a reason for making a decision（宾补）, we（主）are（谓）always actually（状）making the decision（宾从）after the fact（状）. Even more importantly（状）, we（主）are（系）neglecting an important fact（表）: the short-term direction of the price after we make our decision is an independent event, and not tied to the prior change in price（同位语从句）.

首先，每次我们利用当前价格作为决策的依据，事实上是在作滞后判断。更为重要的是，我们忽略了一个重要的事实：我们做出选择之后的短期价格走势，是一个独立事件，与先前价格的变化无关。

第五句:

After we buy（状从）, the price（主）could go up（谓）, go down（谓2）, or stay（系）the same（表） -- we don't know!

我们购买之后，价格可能上涨，也可能下跌，或者不涨不跌 —— 反正我们不得而知！

第六句:

Someone（主）who increased their investment amount in July after a price drop（定从）would have discovered（谓）in September（状）that their "improvement" to the strategy was useless and actually cost them money, because the increased investment in July actually ended up increasing their average cost（原因状语从句）.

在七月价格下跌之后增加了投资金额的某些人，在九月份时会发现他们的定投改进策略不仅毫无用处，还损失了本金，因为在七月末加投实际上是在增加他们的平均成本。

第七句:

Whether or not an investor has a clear grasp of statistical probability（主从）is（谓）the factor（宾）that has the greatest influence on the accuracy of their decisions（定从）.

一个投资者清楚掌握统计概率与否，是对他们决策准确性的最大影响因素。

第八句:

Sadly (状) , too many people (主) don't pay (谓) enough attention (宾) to this basic knowledge (状), and they (主2) have no (谓2) idea (宾2) that this lack of knowledge causes them so much trouble and grief (定从).

遗憾的是，太多的人对基础知识并不够重视，他们即便因为缺乏基础知识而遇到再多的麻烦和悲哀，也对此没有想法（不去重视基础知识）。

第九句:

A person（主）who understands statistical probability（定）couldn't help（系）but laugh（表）at the following phenomenon（状）:

Some people（主）, lacking basic knowltry of statistical probability（同位语）, try their best to prove（谓）on which day of the week prices are lowest（宾）.

知道统计概率的人，对于这个现象忍不住发笑：

那些缺乏统计概率知识的人，却竭尽所能去证明一周中的价格那一天最低。

第十句:

Someone (主) made (谓) a chart (宾), and did (谓) some programming (宾) in Python (状), to support the following conclusion:

After analyzing every 350-day period of weekly regular investing in bitcoin over the 900-day period from July 17th, 2010, to January 2nd, 2013, the following conclusions have been reached (同位语从句):

Investing on Monday performed 1.2% better than the average of the other days. Furthermore, it is best to avoid Sunday, as Sunday performed 0.8% worse than average, perhaps because people have more time on Sunday, or perhaps because they feel more optimistic on Sunday（同位语从句）.

有人还作了张表，还用python作了些项目，以此来支撑以下结论：

从 2010 年 7 月 17 日到 2013 年 1 月 2 日，一共 900 天，统计了每一天开始定投 350 天后的收益情况；合计 900 个“350 日定投” 后，得到结论：

在周一定投比其他时候定投的平均水平要盈利1.2%。此外，最好避开周日，因为选择周日定投会比其他时间定投的平均水平差0.8%，也许是因为周日人们会有更多的时间，也许是因为他们在这一天会比平时更乐观。

第十一句:

Are these sorts of conclusions meaningful?

这些结论的分类有意义吗？

第十二句:

It's （主系）basically（状）impossible（表）to use logic to convince people who don't understand the independence of random events（状从）, but in an article written in 1984 (状), Warren Buffett (主2) gave (谓2) a fun and yet deep example (宾2) that might help (定从):

用逻辑说服不懂独立随机事件的人,这基本上是不可能的。巴菲特在1984年写的一篇文章里，写了可能对我们有帮助的一个既好玩又深刻的例子：

第十三句:

I（主）would like（谓）you (宾) to imagine a national coin-flipping contest (宾补).

我想让你想象一场全国硬币翻转比赛。

第十四句:

Let’s (主) assume (谓) we get 225 million Americans up tomorrow morning (宾从1) and we ask them all to wager a dollar (宾从2).

让我们假定有2.25亿美国人明天早上起来，要求所有人下一美元的赌注。

第十五句:

They (主) go out (谓) in the morning (状1) at sunrise (状2), and they (主) all call (谓2) the flip (宾) of a coin (定). If they call correctly, they win a dollar from those who called wrong (条件状语从句). Each day (状) the losers (主) drop out (谓), and on the subsequent day (状) the stakes (主2) build as all previous winnings (定) are (谓2) put (宾) on the line (状).

早晨日出之时，他们走出来抛一次硬币。如果他们猜对了，就可以从猜错了的那些人手里赢得1美元。每天都有猜错的人出局，在随后的日子里，所有在先前所有赢得的硬币作为赌注。

第十六句:

After（状）ten flips (主) on ten mornings (定), there (形式主语) will be (系) approximately (状2) 220,000 people (表) in the United States who have correctly called ten flips in a row (真正主语). They each（主）will have won （谓）a little（宾）over $1,000（状）.

抛硬币十天后，将会有近乎220,000的人连续猜对10次。他们每个人将会赢得超过1000美元。

第十七句:

Now（状）this group (主) will (系) probably (状) start getting a little puffed up about this (表), human nature being what it is (插入语).

现在,这些人很可能开始感觉飘飘然了，人的本性就是如此。

第十八句:

They（主）may try to be（系）modest（表）, but at cocktail parties (状) they (主) will occasionally admit (谓) to attractive members of the opposite sex (状) what their technique is (宾从), and what marvelous insights (宾2) they bring to the field of flipping (定从).

他们也许会故作谦虚，然而在鸡尾酒会却会向异性炫耀自己的获胜的技巧，并且会乐于分享他们那抛硬币的非凡见识。

第十九句:

Assuming that the winners（主）are (谓) getting the appropriate rewards (宾) from the losers (定), in another ten days (状2) we (主2) will have (系2) 215 people (宾2) who have successfully called their coin flips 20 times in a row and who (状从), by this exercise (状), each (主3) have turned (谓3) one dollar into a little over $1 million (宾3).

假定这些赢家从其他输家那里得到适当奖励,我们将有215位连续20次成功第猜对抛硬币正反面的人。通过这次演习，这些赢家各自获得从1美元翻倍到100万美元。

第二十句:

225 million (主) would have been won (谓2).

2.25亿美元最终被赢家赢走。

第二十一句:

By then（主）, this group（主）will really lose（谓）their heads（宾）. They（主）will probably write（谓）books（宾）on “How I turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days Working Thirty Seconds a Morning（定从）.

到那时，这帮人会被自己成就冲昏头脑。他们可能会写《我是如何每天早晨工作30秒，持续20天后从一美元赚到1百万美元的》之类的书。

第二十二句:

” Worse yet, they’ll probably start jetting around the country attending on efficient coin-flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, “If it can’t be done, why are there 215 of us?”

最糟糕的是，他们可能会开始在全国出席硬币翻转培训会演讲。对于怀疑他们能力的人，他们会反驳说“如果我没有做到，怎么会连续215次猜对？”

第二十三句 :

In addition to not fitting our basic understanding of statistical probability, another reason（主）why "invest on Monday and not Sunday" is unlikely to work（定）is（系）the following（表）:

If it is really effective, then everybody will start doing it, and then it will no longer be effective.

除了不符合统计概率的基础知识外，“为什么选择在周一而不是周日定投” 这个并不奏效的另一个原因是这个：

如果这真的奏效，那每个人都会开始去做，最后并不会奏效太久。

往期热文:

1. 《一篇文章学会找宾语》（必学）；
2. 《On Regular Investing》翻译与划分（018篇）；
3. 《（必看）掌握此中英文逻辑异同，胜过十年苦学》。