第一章第一节已讲完，现进入第一章第二节。
详细原文请点击: 《On Regular Investing》(《定投改变命运》)，中英韩三语版。
原文:
1.2 How Long Is "Long-term"?
The core of the regular investing strategy is long-term holding. It's well recognized that the longer you hold the more likely you are to make a profit, but there is a key question we have to answer if we are to have a deeper discussion:
How long is "long-term"?
If we don't have an accurate answer to this question, we can't even really use the concept of "long-term". For any concept to be useful it must be clearly defined, and since we must combine concepts together, if we have multiple unclear conepts then the accuracy of our judgement will be severely impacted, just as multiplying 80% by itself five times will leave us with less than 33%. In the course of reading this book, you will encounter several concepts that must be used together, and they must be clearly and accurately defined in order to be useful.
Unlike most people, I have a fairly clear, accurate and useful definition of long-term:
Long-term means longer than two full market cycles.
A clear and accurate definition of "long-term" thus depends on a clear and accurate definition of another concept: "market cycle". So what's a full market cycle?
……
How can you tell when a market cycle begins? Actually, we can only make this determination after the fact. Since short-term prices can rise and fall unpredictably, it's impossible to know when a high or low point for a given period has been reached. It's hard to know how long after the fact it will be before we can make the determination, but we can be sure that it will be long enough that it will not be useful for short-term trading decisions.
生词:
1. recognized adj. 公认的，经过验证的；
2. likely adj. 可能的，预料的，有希望的；
3. profit n. 收益，利润；v. 获利；
4. discussion n. 讨论，论述；
5. accurate adj. 准确的；
6. defined v. 界定；解释；adj. 清楚的
7. combine v. 使结合
8. multiple adj. 不清楚的，含糊不清的；
9. accuracy n. 准确性；
10. judgement n. 判断；
11. severely adj. 严重的；
12. impacted v.对……有影响；
13. less than 比……少；少于……；
14. encounter n. v. 遇见；
15. several adj. 几个的；n. 数个；
16. fairly clear 相当清楚；
17. cycles n. 周期；
18. depends v. 依赖；
19. tell v. 辨别；
20. determination n. 确定；
21. unpredictably adj. 不可预测的；
参考翻译与划分:
第一句:
The core （主）of the regular investing strategy（定） is（谓） long-term holding（宾）.
翻译:
定投策略的核心是长期持有。
第二句:
It's（主、系） well （状）recognized（表） that the longer you hold the more likely you are to make a profit（定从）, but there（主2）is （谓2）a key question（宾） we have to answer（定从） if we are to have a deeper discussion（状从）:
How long is "long-term"?
翻译:
你持有的时间越长越能保障盈利，这是公认的事实。然而，若是我们进一步深究，那么有一个关键问题我们必须回答:
长期是多长？
第三句:
If we don't have an accurate answer to this question（条件状语从句）, we （主）can't even really use （谓）the concept（宾） of "long-term"（定）.
翻译:
若是我们不能准确地回复这个问题，我们甚至不能使用"长期"这个概念。
第四句:
For any concept to be useful it must be clearly defined, and since we must combine concepts together, if we have multiple unclear conepts then the accuracy of our judgement will be severely impacted, just as multiplying 80% by itself five times will leave us with less than 33%.
翻译:
任何一个概念都想要有用，它必须被界定清楚。又，我们必须同时结合多个概念使用，若是我们有多个含糊不清的概念混杂在一起，将会严重地影响我们判断的精度——就比如80%与自己相乘5次后（80%的5次方）少于33%一样。
第五句:
In the course of reading this book（状）, you（主） will encounter（谓）several concepts（宾） that must be used together（定从）, and they（主2） must be clearly and accurately defined（谓） in order to be useful（状）.
翻译:
在阅读本书的过程中，你将会遇见几个必须同时使用的概念，并且概念必须清晰准确地被定义才有用。
第六句:
Unlike most people, I have a fairly clear, accurate and useful definition of long-term:
Long-term means longer than two full market cycles.
翻译:
和大多数人不同，我非常清楚长期的准确和有用的定义:
长期意味着至少两个大周期。
第七句:
A clear and accurate definition （主）of "long-term"（定） thus（状） depends（谓） on a clear and accurate definition （宾）of another concept（定）: "market cycle".
翻译:
一个清晰、准确的"长期"的定义如此依赖于另一个概念的清晰、准确的定义: "市场周期"。
第八句:
So what's a full market cycle?
翻译:
那么如何判断一个大周期呢？
第九句:
How can you tell when a market cycle begins?
翻译:
你如何分辨一个市场周期的开始呢？
第十句:
Actually（状）, we（主） can only make（谓） this determination（宾） after the fact（状）.
翻译:
实际上，我们只能在事实之后才能确定。
第十一句:
Since short-term prices can rise and fall unpredictably（状从）, it's （主系）impossible（表） to know （目的状语）when a high or low point for a given period has been reached（状从）.
翻译:
短期价格能涨还是能跌根本无法预测——这是不可能知道一段时间内的高点和低点的。
第十二句:
It's（主谓） hard to know（宾） how long after the fact it will be before we can make the determination（宾补）, but we（主2） can be （谓2）sure（状） that it will be long enough that it will not be useful for short-term trading decisions（宾从）.
翻译:
我们很难知道这个现象究竟会在多久之后可以作出决定，但我们确定地知道那时间将足够长，至少对短期交易的决策起不到任何作用。
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