第三种方式是“相关设计”:
When using a correlational design, researchers examine the extent to which two variables are associated.
那么,这里的问题在于,如何理解相关:
When we think of the word correlate, we should decompose it into its two parts: co- and relate.
中文翻译很巧妙:
统计相关和人际相关。
是想说明,很多时候,统计相关,并不是人际相关 —— 或者说不是因果关系:
If two things are correlated, they relate to each other — not interpersonally, that is, but statistically.
相关是量化的,所以作者认为:
Whereas naturalistic observation and case studies allow us to describe the state of the psychological world, correlational designs can often allow us to generate predictions about the future.
当然这种预测,很可能也只是统计意义上的预测了,想想塔勒布的火鸡寓言吧。因此,从科学方法论来看,应该基于数据提出模型与假设,进行科学实验,随后验证,成为了“理论” —— 相关分析是理论的线索。
这里面,有没有例外呢?为了证明因果,要努力的去模仿、去模拟作为“黄金法则”的随机实验,比如找到自然实验的案例,就能进行因果关系论证。
在实操中,虽然可能很少看到相关分析这个词汇:
because investigators who use this design — and news reporters who describe it — don’t always use the word correlated in their description of findings.
Instead, they’ll often use terms like associated, related, linked, or went together.
作者认为,这些所有的设计都是进行相关设计 —— 实际是不是叫做相关研究更好一些?
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