苏联解体之后的25年

25 Years After the Fall
苏联解体之后的25年

Dec. 23, 2016

2016年12月23日

From U.S. News & World Report
摘自《美国新闻与世界报道》网站

A quarter-century later, the collapse of the USSR still provides a lesson for U.S.-Russia relations.
四分之一世纪后，苏联的解体仍为美俄双边关系提供了一个教训。

（AP Photo/Misha Japaridze)

Dec. 25 will mark the 25th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Union, an event that current Russian President Vladimir Putin labeled "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century" and that many in the West acclaimed at the time a historic victory that would end the threat of a global nuclear war.
12月25日是苏联解体25周年的纪念日。俄罗斯现任总统普京认为苏联解体是“20世纪最大的地缘政治灾难”，但许多西方人士却认为苏联解体是结束一场全球核战争威胁的一次历史性胜利。

Twenty-five years later, analysts are either despairing of the distressing state of relations between the United States and Russia, or outraged that the new administration might be giving away the store to accommodate Putin. The anniversary is a good time to take stock of where we have been over the last quarter-century and where we might be heading.
25年后，分析人士对美俄双边关系令人惋惜的状态表示绝望，或对新政府可能放弃利益容纳普京的举动表示愤慨。周年纪念日是一个很好的时间点来盘点我们在过去25年中置身何处，以及思考我们将前往何方。

The Cold War had actually ended several years before 1991, when Mikhail Gorbachev announced unilateral arms reductions at the United Nations in December 1988, followed by his decision not to militarily intervene in the collapse of communist regimes across Central and Eastern Europe. Glasnost and Perestroika had become household words, and the Soviet leader's call for a "Common European Home" seemed to herald a new dawn in relations between Russia and the West. But it was the implosion of the USSR itself that marked the definitive and stunning end to the Soviet period of Russian history and ushered in hopes for a new narrative.
戈尔巴乔夫于1988年12月在联合国单方面宣布削减武器，接下来并决定对东欧和中欧共产主义政权的崩溃不再进行军事干预。事实上，冷战已在1991年前结束了数年。改革开放已成为家喻户晓的词语，苏联领导人对“欧洲共同家园”的呼吁似乎预示俄罗斯和西方国家在多边关系迎来一个新的黎明。但苏联的内部垮台标志着苏联此段历史已在俄罗斯决定性而又震惊性地终结。俄罗斯迎来了一页历史新篇章的希望。

A quarter-century later, the euphoria that was felt at Christmas of 1991 has long since dissipated. The post-Cold War story has not had a happy ending for U.S.-Russia relations, which are at their lowest point since the early 1980s. But rather than act surprised, we should recognize that the seeds of the downfall were set in motion early on from both sides.
25年后，1991年圣诞节的喜庆之情早已烟消云散。冷战后的故事是美俄双边关系没有迎来一个美好结局，而是遭遇自上世纪80年代初以来的最低谷，但这并不令人感到惊讶，我们应该认识到，美俄关系垮台事件的序幕早已拉开。

Despite the bear hugs between Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin, there was never a total embrace of the new Russia by the United States. The United States hedged against Russian revanchism from the start. While providing assistance to the Yeltsin regime, U.S. policymakers feared the possibility that Russia could re-emerge as an enemy if nationalists took power; after all, the Soviet Union had been America's main adversary for four decades. Powerful anti-American currents remained at the top levels in Russia, particularly among the military, the intelligence services and parliament, and U.S. officials were leery that Moscow could veer in a different direction.
尽管克林顿和叶利钦相互热烈拥抱过，但美国并未毫无保留地拥抱新俄罗斯。美国从一开始就在警惕俄罗斯的复仇主义倾向。在向叶利钦政权提供援助的同时，美国政策制定者也担心，一旦俄罗斯民族主义者掌权，美俄可能会再次处于敌对状态；毕竟，40年来，苏联一直是美国面临的主要对手。强大的反美情绪一直出现在俄罗斯高层，尤其是军事、情报机构和国会里的高官，美国官员怀疑莫斯科可能偏移至一个不同的方向。

As for Russia, Gorbachev and Yeltsin both believed their country would have a privileged place in that "Common European Home," helping to manage affairs as a great power on the continent. But Russian weakness made that concession unnecessary, and a population that was never prepared for the steep fall from the country's previous global role was an easy mark for future tales of humiliation and disrespect. Putin came to power nearly 17 years ago promising to reverse the decline. Always chafing at what he viewed as U.S. efforts to impose its will on the rest of the world, in recent years he has seized openings in Ukraine and Syria to push back.
戈尔巴乔夫和叶利钦均认为，俄罗斯在“共同欧洲家庭”有一个特权角色，并作为一个大国在这片大陆协助管理事务。但俄罗斯的弱势使得做出种种不必要让步，而且俄罗斯人对该国在此前国际地位中的下降毫无准备，将会成为一个在今后叙事中受到侮辱和不敬的简单标志。约17年前，普京在执政时承诺要扭转局面。对美国把自身意志强加给世界其他国家的做法颇为恼火，普京近年来已开始切入乌克兰和叙利亚反击。

Russian aggression in Ukraine in 2014 signaled that reassuring NATO members such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland would become the top alliance priority, after many in the West believed the Russian threat had disappeared years earlier. And the military involvement in Syria to prop up the Bashar Assad regime demonstrated that Russia was capable once again of acting beyond its borders to serve interests opposed to those of the United States.俄罗斯2014年对乌克兰的入侵表明，在许多西方国家认为俄罗斯威胁早在数年前就已消失之后，确保爱萨尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和波兰等北约成员国感到安全将成为北约的首要任务。在叙利亚支持阿萨德政权的军事干预活动表明，俄罗斯有再次越出国界的能力，去采取行动维护同美国相互冲突的利益。

Does the talk of bromance between Putin and Donald Trump signal we are on a path to reverse the downward spiral, particularly with the nomination of ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, who has been doing business in Russia for years, to be secretary of state? Don't bet on it for too long. Trump may give Putin what he wants in Europe and the Middle East, but if he does, he will undoubtedly feel betrayed down the road when U.S. and Russian interests diverge, as they invariably do.
特朗普和普京之间的“哥俩好”谈话是否向人们发出了美国在挽回下行螺旋颓势的信号，尤其是提名在俄经商数年的埃克森美孚CEO雷克斯·蒂勒森担任国务卿？不可对此长期赌注。特朗普可能会在欧洲和中东会给予普京想要得到的利益，但如果他这样做，在未来美俄利益不可避免地存在纷争时，他会毫无疑问地受到背叛。

The main lessons from the past 25 years are to keep expectations realistic regarding the extent that partnership is possible and to avoid telling the other side what its interests should be. There is nothing wrong with an incoming administration wanting to improve the relationship; after all, President Barack Obama did the same eight years ago. But the Trump administration should not seek better relations at the expense of defending NATO allies, upholding the right of Ukraine to choose its own future, championing democratic values or ignoring the plight of civilians in Syria.
过去25年所带来的主要教训是，美国在立场上的期望要保持现实一些，合作是可能的，但不要让对方摸清自身的国家利益。即将上台的特朗普政府希望改善美俄双边关系无可厚非，毕竟奥巴马总统在8年前也是如此做的。但特朗普政府不应为力求美俄关系的改善，而去以牺牲保护北约盟国，坚持乌克兰自选未来的权利，支持民主党的价值观或忽视叙利亚平民困境为代价。

U.S. and Russian interests are not the same, as we have seen over the past 25 years, and a realistic relationship should be built on that central insight.
正如我们在过去25年来所看到的那样，美俄双边利益是不一样的，一个现实的双边关系应该建立在中央的洞察力之上。