2018.8.4期经济学人翻译参考L1：应对全球变暖，人类正在输掉这场战争！

by 中国高翻团队独家发布

@chinagaofanteam

必备资料：《2019MTI考研热词》

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Leader 1

Global Warming

全球变暖

In the line of fire

火线行动

The world is losing the war against climate change

我们正在输掉气候变化之战

Rising energy demand means use of fossil fuels is heading in the wrong direction

人类对能源的需求越来越高意味着使用越来越多的化石燃料

EARTH is smouldering. From Seattle to Siberia this summer, flames have consumed swathes of the northern hemisphere. One of 18 wildfires sweeping through California, among the worst in the state’s history, is generating such heat that it created its own weather. Fires that raged through a coastal area near Athens last week killed 91 (see article). Elsewhere people are suffocating in the heat. Roughly 125 have died in Japan as the result of a heatwave that pushed temperatures in Tokyo above 40°C for the first time.

地球在缓慢燃烧。今夏，从西雅图到西伯利亚，北半球的广大地区都被火焰吞噬。目前共有18处山火在加利福尼亚肆虐，其中一处是加州史上最大的山火。该处山火所产生的热量之大使得当地产生了自己的天气系统。上周雅典附近的沿海地区也有火灾肆虐，造成91人死亡（详见文章）。而在北半球其他地方，人们热得透不过气来。东京气温首次达到40度以上，日本约有125人因热浪致死。

Such calamities, once considered freakish, are now commonplace. Scientists have long cautioned that, as the planet warms—it is roughly 1°C hotter today than before the industrial age’s first furnaces were lit—weather patterns will go berserk. An early analysis has found that this sweltering European summer would have been less than half as likely were it not for human-induced global warming.

人们曾认为上述灾难是反常现象，现在却已是司空见惯。科学家们早就发出过警告：随着地球温度升高，天气将变得狂暴。第一批火炉燃起，人类进入工业时代，而现在的气温要比那之前高1°C左右。早期的一项分析发现，若不是人类引起全球变暖，欧洲这种酷夏出现的几率将不到一半。

Yet as the impact of climate change becomes more evident, so too does the scale of the challenge ahead. Three years after countries vowed in Paris to keep warming “well below” 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels, greenhouse-gas emissions are up again. So are investments in oil and gas. In 2017, for the first time in four years, demand for coal rose. Subsidies for renewables, such as wind and solar power, are dwindling in many places and investment has stalled; climate-friendly nuclear power is expensive and unpopular. It is tempting to think these are temporary setbacks and that mankind, with its instinct for self-preservation, will muddle through to a victory over global warming. In fact, it is losing the war.

但随着气候变化的对地球的影响日益显著，我们面临的环境恶化的挑战也愈加严峻。各国在巴黎气候大会上宣誓要把全球平均气温较工业化前水平升高控制在2摄氏度之内，而3年后，温室气体排放量再次增加。对石油和天然气的投资也再次增加。2017年，全球煤炭需求4年来首次上升。在许多地方，风能和太阳能等可再生能源的补贴正在减少，而对它们的投资也已陷入停滞；环保的核能成本高，所以不受欢迎。人们不禁会认为这些挫折只是暂时的，出于自我保护的本能，草草应对也能度过全球变暖的危机。事实上，人类正在输掉这场战争。

Living in a fuel’s paradise

取之不尽的能源

Insufficient progress is not to say no progress at all. As solar panels, wind turbines and other low-carbon technologies become cheaper and more efficient, their use has surged. Last year the number of electric cars sold around the world passed 1m. In some sunny and blustery places renewable power now costs less than coal.

人类在对抗气候变化方面并不是完全没有进展，只是做得还不够。太阳能电池板、风能涡轮机以及其他低碳技术成本越来越低、效率越来越高，因此使用量也随之激增。去年，电动汽车全球销量超过100万辆。如今，在一些阳光充沛、风力十足的地区，可再生能源比煤炭成本更低。

Public concern is picking up. A poll last year of 38 countries found that 61% of people see climate change as a big threat; only the terrorists of Islamic State inspired more fear. In the West campaigning investors talk of divesting from companies that make their living from coal and oil. Despite President Donald Trump’s decision to yank America out of the Paris deal, many American cities and states have reaffirmed their commitment to it. Even some of the sceptic-in-chief’s fellow Republicans appear less averse to tackling the problem (seearticle). In smog-shrouded China and India, citizens choking on fumes are prompting governments to rethink plans to rely heavily on coal to electrify their countries.

公众担忧也在增加。去年，一份对38个国家开展的民意调查显示，61%的人视气候变化为严重威胁，并认为这种威胁的严重程度仅次于伊斯兰国恐怖分子。西方一些国家的投资者提出从以煤炭和石油为生的公司中撤资。虽然美国总统特朗普决定退出巴黎协定，但是美国的许多州和城市还是重申他们将会履行巴黎协定上的承诺。即使是那些对一切都持怀疑态度的共和党人似乎也对解决气候变暖问题没有那么抗拒（详见文章）。在雾霾笼罩的中国和印度，民众在有害气体中几乎透不过气。他们要求政府反思国家供电计划，以改变严重依赖煤炭的情况。

Optimists say that decarbonisation is within reach. Yet, even allowing for the familiar complexities of agreeing on and enforcing global targets, it is proving extraordinarily difficult.

乐观主义者认为去碳化可以完成。但想一想之前各国就全球目标达成共识并执行所经历的复杂过程，就可以知道，去碳化目标极难实现。

One reason is soaring energy demand, especially in developing Asia. In 2006-16, as Asia’s emerging economies forged ahead, their energy consumption rose by 40%. The use of coal, easily the dirtiest fossil fuel, grew at an annual rate of 3.1%. Use of cleaner natural gas grew by 5.2% and of oil by 2.9%. Fossil fuels are easier to hook up to today’s grids than renewables that depend on the sun shining and the wind blowing. Even as green fund managers threaten to pull back from oil companies, state-owned behemoths in the Middle East and Russia see Asian demand as a compelling reason to invest.

首先，能源需求在不断飞升，尤其是在亚洲地区的发展中国家。2006年到2016年间，亚洲的新兴经济体蓬勃发展，能源消耗随之上涨了40%。其中煤炭无疑是污染最严重的化石能源，它的消耗量每年增加3.1%，清洁能源天然气为5.2%，石油为2.9%。化石能源比太阳能和风能等可再生能源更易用来发电。即使绿色基金经理威胁从石油公司撤资，中东和俄罗斯的国企石油巨头还是视亚洲地区的高需求为投资的一大理由。

The second reason is economic and political inertia. The more fossil fuels a country consumes, the harder it is to wean itself off them. Powerful lobbies, and the voters who back them, entrench coal in the energy mix. Reshaping existing ways of doing things can take years. In 2017 Britain enjoyed its first coal-free day since igniting the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s. Coal generates not merely 80% of India’s electricity, but also underpins the economies of some of its poorest states (see Briefing). Panjandrums in Delhi are not keen to countenance the end of coal, lest that cripple the banking system, which lent it too much money, and the railways, which depend on it.

其次，经济和政治都具有惰性。一个国家消耗的化石能源越多，它就越难摆脱对其的依赖。强大的游说团体和支持他们的选民们奠定了煤炭在各种能源中的地位。要想改变这种现状可能需要数年时间。2017年，英国自十九世纪工业革命爆发以来，第一次体验了一天“无煤炭日”。在印度，煤炭不仅提供了全国80%的电力，还是一些穷邦的经济支柱（详见简报）。德里的官员并不愿支持停用煤炭，因为德里的银行体系借给煤炭产业大量资金，而铁路也依赖着煤炭产业，他们唯恐这两个产业会受到损害。

Last is the technical challenge of stripping carbon out of industries beyond power generation. Steel, cement, farming, transport and other forms of economic activity account for over half of global carbon emissions. They are technically harder to clean up than power generation and are protected by vested industrial interests. Successes can turn out to be illusory. Because China’s 1m-plus electric cars draw their oomph from an electricity grid that draws two-thirds of its power from coal, they produce more carbon dioxide than some fuel-efficient petrol-driven models. Meanwhile, scrubbing CO{-2} from the atmosphere, which climate models imply is needed on a vast scale to meet the Paris target, attracts even less attention.

最后，消除各行业（包括发电行业）的碳排放在技术上有困难。世界上超过一半的碳排放来自于钢铁、水泥、农业、交通以及其他形式的经济活动。它们相比发电更难净化，因为在技术上难以实现。这些经济活动还因关系到各产业既得利益而受到保护。成功似乎远在天边。因为中国有100多万量电动汽车。这些汽车依赖电网，而三分之二的电力都来自于煤炭发电。这种汽车比一些节能汽油车所产生的二氧化碳还多。同时，人们更少关注大气中二氧化碳的净化，而气候模型表明，若想达到巴黎协定的目标，大规模净化二氧化碳是必不可少的。

The world is not short of ideas to realise the Paris goal. Around 70 countries or regions, responsible for one-fifth of all emissions, now price carbon. Technologists beaver away on sturdier grids, zero-carbon steel, even carbon-negative cement, whose production absorbs more CO{-2} than it releases. All these efforts and more—including research into “solar geoengineering” to reflect sunlight back into space—should be redoubled.

世界为了达到巴黎协定的目标，想法层出不穷。约有70个国家和地区的二氧化碳排放量占全球的五分之一，他们现在开始对碳排放收费。技术人员为建设更健全的电网，发明“零碳”钢铁、甚至“负碳”水泥（生产过程中吸收的二氧化碳比排放的二氧化碳更多）而辛勤忙碌着。为了将阳光反射回宇宙，人们还在研究“太阳能地质工程”。所有这些努力都应该加倍。

Blood, sweat and geoengineers

血、汗和地质工程师

Yet none of these fixes will come to much unless climate listlessness is tackled head on. Western countries grew wealthy on a carbon-heavy diet of industrial development. They must honour their commitment in the Paris agreement to help poorer places both adapt to a warmer Earth and also abate future emissions without sacrificing the growth needed to leave poverty behind.

除非直面气候问题，否则这些方法都起不到太大作用。西方国家经过了高碳排放量的工业发展阶段已经变得富裕。他们必须要履行在巴黎气候协定中的承诺：不仅要帮助贫困地区适应变暖的地球，还要在未来减少碳排放量，同时不能牺牲当地发展而影响脱贫 。

Averting climate change will come at a short-term financial cost—although the shift from carbon may eventually enrich the economy, as the move to carbon-burning cars, lorries and electricity did in the 20th century. Politicians have an essential role to play in making the case for reform and in ensuring that the most vulnerable do not bear the brunt of the change. Perhaps global warming will help them fire up the collective will. Sadly, the world looks poised to get a lot hotter first.

要防止气候变化，短期内会付出经济代价，但正如20世纪碳动力汽车、卡车以及电力的出现（振兴了经济）一样，现在朝着无碳方向努力，可能最终经济会繁荣起来。政治家们起着非常重要的作用，他们要实行改革，并且确保最脆弱的地区面临气候变化时不会首当其冲。或许全球变暖可以帮助他们燃起民众保护环境的意志。但遗憾的是，世界好像已经准备好先热上一阵。

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