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TheTrump Show season two
川普秀第二季
Whatto expect from the second half of Donald Trump's term
川普任期下半场，可以期待些什么呢？
DLDTRUMP'Snerve-janglingpresidential terms begin its second half with a federal-governmentshut down.seesawingmarkets and theejectionofreassuringcabinet memberslike Generals John Kelly and James Mattis. As MrTrump'sopponents called this a disaster。his supporters lambastedtheir criticism ashysterical-wasn't everybody saying ayear ago that it was sinister to have so many generals in the cabinet?
随着起伏不定的市场和联邦政府对詹姆斯马蒂斯、约翰凯利这样忠实内阁成员的驱逐以至于停滞不前，川普争吵不休的执政生涯进入下半场。川普的对手把这认为是一场灾难，同时支持者歇斯底里的抨击对手的评论，一年之前可不是每个人都认为内阁的人员过多。
Acalmassessmentof the Trumperarequires those who admire America tounplug themselves from the news cycle for aminute. As the nextphaseof the president's four-year term begins threequestions need answering. How bad is it really? How bad could it get? And howshould Americans and foreign governments prepare for theTrump Show's secondseason?
川普方的一份中立提出美国人应该从最新新闻中冷静一下，作为总统4年期统治的下半场，有3个问题需要思考：川普执政究竟有多糟糕？还能多糟糕？美国和其他外国政府将会怎么应对川普执政的下半场？
MrTrump is sopolarisingthat his critics brush anything that mightcount asan achievement.Shortly beforeChristmas he signed a usefulbipartisancriminal-justicereform intolaw. Some of theregulatorychanges to schools and companies have been helpful.In foreign affairs theattempt to change the terms of America's economic relations with China iswelcome too. But anyorthodox Republican president enjoying the backingofboth houses
of Congress might have achieved as much-or more.
川普总是很极端以至于他的对手忽略了他任何可以作为一项成就的东西。最近，圣诞之前他签订了一份将要被列入法律的两党相关的刑事司法提案。一些对学校和企业的改变也已经发挥作用。在外交事务上，他试图改变中美贸易关系的行为也很受欢迎。但是共和党却得到了同样甚至更多来自于两会的支持。
Whatmarks out MrTrump'sfirst two years is hisirrepressible instinctto act as awrecker.His destructive tacticswere supposed to toppleaself-serving Washingtonelite，but the president'sbullying，lying andsleazehavefilled theswampfaster than it hasdrained.Where he has been at his most Trumpish-on immigration，North Korea，NATo-theknocking down has yet to leadto muchrenewal.Mr Trump came to office with amandateto rewrite America's immigration rules and make themmerit-based，as in Canada. Yet because he and his staff areham-fisted with Congress that chanceis now gone.
使川普比较显眼的事他过去两年像肇事者一样压抑不住的本性。他破坏性的策略推翻了华盛顿自私自利精英的形象。但他恃强凌弱、满口谎言以及卑鄙的手段在旧的一波留言还没过去就又贴到了他的身上。最能体现川普主义的表现在移民政策，朝鲜问题，北大西洋公约-有损部分还有待回复。川普上任改写了美国的移民政策，就像加拿大基于精英政策那样。还因为他和他的团队在国会非常强势，但是现在一切都不存在了。
KimJong Un still has his weapons programme and havingconcedednothing now demands areward from America. Europeans may pay more into their defence budgets at thepresident'surging.But America has spent half a century and billions of dollarsbuilding its relations with Europe. In just two years Mr Trump has taken asledge hammerto them.The next two years could be worse. For a start Mr Trump's luck maybeabout toturn. In the first half of his term he has been fortunate.He was not faced by any shock ofthe sort his twopredecessors had to deal with: 9/11，Afghanistan，Iraq，the financial crisis,Syria.Electoraltriumpha/roaringeconomy andsurgingfinancial markets gave him an air ofinvulnerability.
金正恩依然进行着他的核武器项目，没有任何退让且要求美国给予奖励。欧国各国在领导人的说服下可能会投入更多到保卫预算中，但美国已经花了半个世纪和数十亿美元来建立和欧洲的关系。在过去两年中，川普给了他们一个很大的重击。未来两年有可能会更加恶劣，川普在任期前半部分的幸运可能会转变。他没有遇到类似他两位前任遇到的事：9/11时间，阿富汗问题，伊朗问题，经济危机，叙利亚问题。选举的顺利，繁荣的经济和飙升的金融市场，给他一种刀枪不入的感觉。
Evenwithout a shock the weather has changed.Although the economy is still fairlystrong thesugar-highfrom the tax cutis fading and growth is slowing in China and Europe. Markets which MrTrumpheraldsas aproxyfor economic success arevolatile (see Finance section). Republicans were trouncedin the House in the mid-terms. The new Democratic majority will investigate thepresident's conduct and at some pointRobert Mueller the specialcounselwill complete his report on links betweenRussia and the Trump campaign.
尽管没有打的打击，但环境也已经变了。尽管经济依然强劲，减税的甜蜜期逐渐褪色，且中国和欧国的经济增长都放缓了。川普成功经济就没有一个代表{可以看看财政部}。民主党在中期的时候彻底被打败了。新的民主党人士表示将要调差总统的引导，以此同时，罗伯特米勒作为特别法律顾问将会对俄罗斯和川普之间的对垒做报告。
Overthe past two years MrTrump has shown that he reactsto anyadversitybylashing out without regard to theconsequences.
Neither themagnitudenor target of his responseneedbear ontheprovocation.In the past few weeks he has announced troop withdrawalsfrom Syria and Afghanistan. Seeminglythis was partly because he was beingcriticisedby pundits forfailing to build a southern border-wall.The Afghanistan withdrawal was laterwalked backand the Syrian oneblurredwith the result that nobody can say whatAmerica's policy is (though the harm will remain). Now that hiscabinet haslost its steadying generals，expect even more suchdestructiveambiguity.
在过去的两年中，川普对所有逆境都用斥责的方式来应对完全没有考虑到后果。他回应的内容和质量都跟挑衅有关。在过去的几周中，他发表声明要将军队从叙利亚和阿富汗撤退，这看起来似乎是暂时的，因为他被权威因为建立南部边界线失败而抨击。阿富汗军队已经往回走，但叙利亚的却任然模糊不清，因为谁也说不清美国的政策{尽管伤害还在继续}。如今在内阁中他们又失去了立场坚定的领导者，甚至期待更多如此的模糊不清。
Moreoverwhen Mr Trump acts he does not recognise boundaries legal orethical.Hehas already beenimplicated in twofelonies and several of his formeradvisersare in orheading
forprison. As his troublesmount he will become less bound by institutional machinery.If Mr Muellerindictsa member of MrTrump's family，the president may instructhisattorney-generalto end the whole thing and then makeegregious useof his pardon powers.House Democrats mightunearthdocuments suggesting that the Trump Organisation was used tolaunderRussianmoney. What then?
另外，当川普不依照法律和道德承认边界线的时候，他已经卷入了两项重罪，且他的几个前任顾问已经在或者即将入狱。随着他问题的增加，他被制度的约束的越来越少。如果米勒控诉川普的家人，总统可能会让他的司法部长结束所有一切并充分利用他的赦免权。民主党可能会挖掘出川普习惯于给俄罗斯洗黑钱，那接下来又会如何呢？
Confusion，chaosandnorm-breakingare how MrTrump operates.If the federal government really were a business the turn over ofsenior jobs in the White House wouldhave investorsdumpingthe stock. Mr Trump's interventions oftenaccomplishthe opposite of what hein tends. His criticism of the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell forbeing toohawkishwill if anything only make an independent-minded Fed morehawkish still.His ownnegotiatorsfear that he mightunderminethem if the moodtakeshim. Most of the senior staff who have left theadministration have said that he isselfabsorbeddistracted and ill-informed. He demands absolute loyalty and whenhe gets it offers none in return.
困惑，混乱和常规打破是川普操作的方式。如果联邦政府真的是一桩生意的话，那白宫重要工作交接就会有很多投资者抛售股票。川普的干预经常会导致事情往他期望的对立面发展。他对美联储主席杰罗姆包威尔的评论一直都太强硬只为保持一个独立的头脑。美联储也同样强硬。他的谈判代表们害怕他的情绪一来就毁了他们。很多离开川普团队的人都说他只顾自己的不开心并且一无所知。他要求绝对的忠诚但又什么都不付出。
Howshould Congress and the world prepare for what is coming? Foreignalliesshould engage andhedge; work with MrTrump when they can but have aplan B in case he lets them down. Democrats in control of the House have a fineline to tread.Some arecalling
for Mr Trump to beimpeached but，as of nowthe Republican-controlled Senatewill notconvicthim.As things standit would be betterif theverdictcomes at theballot
box. Instead they musthold him to account ，butnot play into his desire that they serve aspropsin hispermanent campaign.
议会和整个世界将会怎么应对即将到来的东西，他国家也应该参与解决。如果可以就和川普合作，但同时也要拥有计划B以防万一他甩掉他们。民主当控制了议会并且有理由挤兑他。有些人提议川普应该被弹劾，但截至目前，民主党控制的上院也没打算证明川普有罪。在目前的情况下，通过民主选择的方式得到答案估计会更好，而不是追究他的责任，以免川普拿它作为竞选的理由。
ManyRepublicans in the Senate find themselves in a now familiardilemma.Speak out and risk losing their seats in aprimary;stay silent and risk losing their partyand theirconsciences.More should follow Mitt Romne who marked his arrival in the Senate this week bycriticising MrTrump's conduct.His return to politics is welcome，as is thevibrantopposition to Mr Trump byactivistsandcivil
societyevident in the mid-terms. Assailed by hispresidencyAmerican democracy is fighting back.
很多议会中的共和党人士发现自己处在一个熟悉的困境。如果畅所欲言就容易失去重要的职权，继续保持沉默又有失去道德心和党派认可的危险。更多可能会效仿米特罗姆尼，他在被川普的发言者批评之后这周在议会签到了。他的回归很受欢迎，作为中期反对川普的积极分子和民间团体非常显眼。
Aftertwochaoticyears it is clear that the Trump Show is something to beendured. Perhaps the luck will holdand America and the world willmuddle through.But luck is aslender hope on which to buildprosperityand peace.
经过两年的混乱，很明显川普秀已经被忍受很久了。有可能好运会继续，美国和整个世界都可以应付过去，但是好运对于创建繁荣和和平只是一条很细小的希望。
今天的笔记就到这里了，欢迎大家点评、提意见，更加欢迎一起读书、分享的胖友~一起分享，共同成长~
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