A Brief History of Tomorrow - Notes 1 （Page1-21）
The first chapter The New Human Agenda discussed the three major challenges that preoccupied the people regardless of their inhabitants, and they are famine, plague and war.
Thanks to the development of the economy, these incomprehensible/uncontrollable forces of nature had been turned into manageable challenges. We are able to feed ourselves with enough food and live in a safe and healthy environment.
Let's see the summarized comparison of these three problems before and after the 21st century.
Famine
A small mistake or a bit of bad luck could easily be a death sentence for an entire family/village.
- Provisions become scarce;
- Transport was too slow/expansive to import food;
- Governments were too weak to save the day.
Mass famines are exceptional and they are mostly caused by human politics rather than by natural catastrophes.
- Technological, economic and political development have created an increasingly robust safety net separating humankind from the biological poverty line.
- Private insurance, government and NGOs will provide the hungry enough daily calories to survive.
- Global trade network turns bad luck into business opportunities.
Plague
An epidemic might suddenly erupt and destroy the entire family in one swoop.
Thanks to the achievements of 21st medicine,
- It provides us with vaccinations, antibiotics, improved hygiene and a better medical infrastructure;
- Less than 5% of children die before reaching adulthood;
- The vast majority of people die from non-infectious illnesses such as cancer and heart disease, or simply old age.
If an epidemic gets out of control, it's due to human incompetence rather than divine anger.
War
International relations were governed by the Law of the Jungle and peace was a temporary and precarious state.
In ancient agricultural societies human violence caused about 15% of all deaths, but in 21st, it's only responsible for about 1% of global mortality. Sugar is now more dangerous than gunpowder.
The global economy has been transformed from a material-based economy int a knowledge-based economy.
History does not tolerate a vacuum.
Our phenomenal economic growth provides us with abundant food, medicine, energy and raw materials.
If incidences of famine, plague and war and decreasing, what are going to take their place on the human agenda?
Success breeds ambition.
Having secured unprecedented levels of prosperity, health and harmony, humanity's next targets are likely to be immortality, happiness and divinity.
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