A rational investment decision should be based on cash flow forecasting, risk evaluation, expectation of return and judgement of opportunity cost. All of them, no matter how many statistics has been done, are assumptions because the future is unknown. The accuracy of forecasting can be close to 100% but it will never be 100% in an large enough sample. The uncertainty of future makes investment decision difficult.
The complexity of investment decision making is mainly formed by the consideration of opportunity cost. The decision made to invest certain project is not because it is profitable but it is more profitable than other projects that are available for investment now. Furthermore, the judgement of which project is better is not only based on the return but also whether it serves the ultimate goal of a company; thus it involves the balance between short-term interest and long-term benefit.
Anyway, although there are more than one entrepreneur claimed that their investment decision came from 'gut feeling', there are dozens of things have been considered even though they haven't been noticed. I cannot be certain how successful entrepreneurs make their decision but I am sure that there are something more than 'gut' needed to be an successful man/woman.
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