TURKEY matters not just for its size, but also as a bellwether of the political forces shaping the world.For centuriesit was the seat of a great empire.Today, as a frontier state, it must cope with the violence spewing out of war-ravaged Syria; it is a test case of whether democracy canbe reconciled withpolitical Islam; and it mustnavigatebetween Western liberalism and the authoritarian nationalismepitomised by Russia. In recent years underRecep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has gone backwards. This weekend it can begin to put that right.
bellwether /ˈbɛlˌwɛðə/ N-COUNT an indication of the way a situation is changing.征兆;风向标
•IBM is considered the bellwether stock on Wall Street. IBM的股票行情被认为是华尔街股市的风向标。
Spew:[I always + adv/prep, T]（使）喷出，（使）涌出
•Factory chimneys spewed fumes out into the sky.工厂的烟囱向空中喷吐浓烟。
[+ from/into/over etc]•Brown waterspewed from the tap.褐色的水从龙头里喷了出来。
2.[I always + adv/prep, T]发泄；破口大骂:•Groups like these use the Internet to spew racial hatred.像这类团体会使用因特网来发泄种族仇恨。
3.[I,T] informal to vomit【非正式】呕吐
ravage /'rævidʒ/n.1.蹂躏；破坏；劫掠2.[常用复数]劫掠(或破坏)后的残迹；创伤；灾难
vt., vi.(使)蹂躏；破坏；劫掠；毁灭：My native village was ravaged seriously in the war.我的故乡在战争中受到严重的蹂躏。
reconcile ['rekənsaɪl] v.1.[T]使和谐一致；调和；协调：•The possibility remains that the two theories may be reconciled.这两种理论仍是有可能协调的。
reconcile sth with sth:•Bevan tried to reconcile British socialism with a wider international vision.比万试图用更广阔的国际视野来协调英国的社会主义。
2.be reconciled (with sb)（与某人）和解，（与某人）和好
epitomize /ɪˈpɪtəˌmaɪz/ V-T为…的典型;为…的代表
土耳其之所以重要不仅是因为它的体量，也因为它是政治角力塑造国际格局的风向标。几个世纪以来，那里曾经是一个大帝国的所在。如今，作为地缘前线，土耳其需要协调饱受战争蹂躏的叙利亚喷涌而出的暴力威胁，它是民主政治能否与伊斯兰政治和解的试验床，同时也必须在西方自由主义和以俄罗斯为代表的专制民族主义之间找到方向。近年来，在雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的领导下，土耳其已在开倒车。本周末，它可以开始回到正轨。
On April 16thTurks will vote in a referendumover whether toabandon their parliamentary system for an executive presidency. A Yes is likely, but far from certain. There is nothing wrong with a strong president, but Turkey’s new constitution goes too far. The country would end up with a 21st-century sultan minimally curbed by parliament.A Yes would condemnTurkey to the elected dictatorship of President Erdogan.A No might just let Turks constrain him.
4月16日，土耳其将举行公投，决定是否为实权总统放弃议会政体。公投可能通过，但也不太确定。选择一位强权总统并没有错，但土耳其的新宪法有误入歧途之嫌。这个国家有可能会由一位21世纪的苏丹统治，而议会对其约束力微乎其微。如果公投通过，会迫使土耳其选出一位独裁总统埃尔多安，如果公投不通过，土耳其人可能会对他的权力有所约束。
condemn：FORCE TO DO STH强迫做某事force them tolive in an unpleasant way or to do something unpleasant迫使〔某人〕处于不幸的境地；迫使〔某人〕做不愿做的事
condemn sb to (do) sth：•peoplecondemned to a life of poverty 被迫过贫穷生活的人
Authority figure 权威人物
After Mr Erdogan came to power in 2003, he and his AK party did a lot that was good. Encouraged by the IMF, he tamed inflation and ushered ineconomic growth. Encouraged by the EU,he tackled the cabal of military officers and bureaucratsin the “deep state”, strengthened civil liberties andtalked peace withthe Kurds. He also spoke up for working-class religious conservatives,who had been locked out of powerfor decades.
* 在维基百科上专门有一个词条，Thedeep state(loosely synonymous with theshadow governmen to permanent government) is in contrast to the public structures whichappearto be directing individualnation states. The deep state is an intensely secretive, informal, fluid network ofdeep politicianswho conspire to amplify their influence over national governments through a variety ofdeep state milieux. The phrase "deep state" derives from theTurkish"derin devlet", which emerged after the1996Susurluk incidentso dramatically unmasked theTurkish deep state. It has experienced asurge of use in 2017, though often not in keeping with the meaning attributed by thediplomat who coined the phrase. 对于这个词，我个人的理解是各种暗深政治势力集团，类似于影子政府，意图密谋扩大影响，颠覆现有政权。
2003年埃尔多安上台后，他和他的正发党政绩卓著。在国际货币基金组织的鼓励下，他抑制了通货膨胀，迎来了土耳其的经济增长期。在欧盟的帮助下，他粉碎军官和官僚暗深势力集团的惊天阴谋，加强了公民自由，与库尔德人实现了和平对话。同时他也是工人阶级宗教保守势力的代言人，而这股势力在过去的几十年间一直处于被抑制的状态。
But today Turkey is beset by problems. In the shadow of the Syrian civil war, jihadists and Kurdish militants are waging campaigns against the state. Last summer the army attempted a coup—probably organised by supporters of an American based cleric, Fethullah Gulen,who had penetrated the bureaucracy,judiciary and army in their tens of thousands.The economy, once a strength, is growing slowly, plagued by cronyism, poor management and a collapse in tourism.
背景资料： 居兰运动在谱系上属于主张公民伊斯兰的“努尔库运动”，创立者为伊斯兰教育学者法图拉・居兰。20世纪70年代，居兰开始着手建立自己的宗教团体，吸引了一批坚定的支持者。20世纪90年代，居兰运动开始在中亚国家开设国际学校，影响力扩散至国外。埃尔多安的正发党和居兰运动在内政、外交上的分歧也不断增多，并最终分道扬镳。土耳其政府用立法手段认定“居兰运动”为恐怖组织，要求美国遣返居兰，甚至派律师赴美起诉居兰。2016年夏天，土耳其军方政变未遂，有指示居兰运动的支持者所为，埃尔多安对政届、教育界、司法界和军队进行了大清洗。
但是今天的土耳其备受困扰。在叙利亚内战的阴影中，圣战分子和库尔德武装对土耳其宣战。去年夏天，军方政变未遂，这场政变可能是由身在美国的阿訇法图拉·居兰的支持者策划的。居兰的影响力渗透到官僚机构、司法系统及军方，有成千上万的支持者。由于任人唯亲、管理失当和崩溃的旅游业，一度强劲增长的经济也开始放缓了。
Mr Erdogan argues that, to put this right, Turkey needs a new constitution that will generate political stability. He says that only a strong president cangalvanisethe state and see off its enemies.Naturally,he is talking about himself.
埃尔多安辩称，为了走上正轨，土耳其需要一部新宪法来实现政治稳定。他认为只有强势总统能激励国家，战胜强敌，当然，他谈论的是他自己。
The new constitution embodiesthe “illiberal democracy”of nationalists such as Viktor Orban of Hungary and Vladimir Putin of Russia, to whom Mr Erdogan is increasingly compared.On this view,election winners take all, constraints are obstacles to strong government and the ruling party has a right to subvert institutions, such as the judiciary and the press.
新宪法体现了匈牙利总理欧尔班、俄罗斯总统普金等民族主义者倡导的“非自由民主”，越来越多的人将埃尔多安与他们相提并论。在这种观点看来，选举的获胜方赢得一切，权力约束是强权政府的绊脚石，执政党有权颠覆诸如司法和媒体等机构。
Yet this kind of stability is hollow. The most successful democracies make a point of separating powers andslowing governments down. The guiding idea of the American constitution is to stop presidents from acting as if they were monarchs,by building in checks and balances. Even the British prime minister,untrammelledby a written constitution, has to submit herself to the courts, a merciless press and a weekly grilling in Parliament, broadcast live.
hollow这个词作为形容词使用，意味. 空的；中空的，空腹的；凹的；虚伪的。我个人觉得用得比较精妙。
checks and balances,亦称三权分治，是西方民主国家的基本政治制度的建制原则。
submit...to 提交；向…提出；. 服从，屈服；使……受到。用于句中，指的是英国首相也必须服从法庭的约束。
grilling[ 'griliŋ ]
n.cooking by direct exposure to radiant heat (as over a fire or under a grill) 炙烤、引申为拷问、质询。
但是这种稳定是虚有其表。最成功的民主国家强调分权，限制政府权力。美国宪法的指导思想是利用三权分治，防止总统成为君主。英国首相，权力虽然没有成文宪法的限制，但是必须服从法庭和无情媒体的约束，接受每周一次现场直播的议会质询。
Turkey is especially ill-suited to winner-takes-all government. It is divided between secular, religious and nationalist citizens, as well as Turks, Kurds, Alevis and a few remaining Greeks, Armenians and Jews. If the religious-conservative near-majority try toshut outeveryone else, just as they were once shut out, Turkey will never be stable.
ill-suited 用的很好，意思是不适合。
土耳其显然不适合这种赢家通吃的政府。土耳其民众可分为世俗派、宗教派和民族主义者，根据民族也可分为土耳其人、库尔德人、阿拉维人和其余一部分希腊人、亚美尼亚人和犹太人。如果绝大多数宗教保守主义者试图对其他人拒之门外，就像他们曾经遭遇的一样，土耳其将永无宁日。
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