中美贸易战一触即发（1）

A trade war between America and China takes shape

中美贸易战一触即发

The two countries threaten to descend into a sequence of tit-for-tat retaliations

     两国威胁将针锋相对，以牙还牙。

TALK of tariffs is in danger of developing into cries of trade war. On April 3rd America published a list of some 1,300 Chinese products it proposes to hit with tariffs of 25%. Just a day later China produced its own list, covering 106 categories. “As the Chinese saying goes, it is only polite to reciprocate,” said the Chinese embassy in Washington, DC.

   关于关税的口水战硝烟再起，将升级为贸易战。4月3日，美国公布了一份清单，将对1300种中国产品增收25%的关税。仅一天之后，中国也公布了自己的清单，涵盖106种产品。“中国俗话说得好，礼尚往来。”中国驻美使馆如是说。

According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank, America’s list covers Chinese products worth $46bn in 2017 (9% of that year’s total goods exports to America; see graphic). China’s covers American goods worth around $50bn in 2017 (38% of exports). The sums were enough to move markets on April 4th, though the S&P 500 index soon made up lost ground.

      源引智库皮特森国际经济研究所消息，美国的清单涵盖了2017年价值460亿美元的中国产品（本年度中国出口至美国的产品占总量的9%；见图表）。中国清单上的美国产品2017年价值500亿美元（占了美国出口总额的38%）。这一总数足以撼动4月4日的股票市场，尽管标普500很快反弹，收复失地。

Both countries’ lists are, for now, no more than threats. Over the next two months America’s list will be open for public consultation (there is no deadline for the tariffs to come into force). China has said that it will wait for America to move.There is still a chance the two sides will choose a deal over a trade war. Although America’s list was drawn up in response to China’s alleged theft of American firms’ intellectual property, Mr Trump regards the trade deficit with China as a separate affront. Tariffs might yet be avoided by China agreeing to buy more American stuff.

    双方的清单暂时不构成威胁。在未来两个月中，美国的清单将对公开征求意见（关税生效也并无最后期限）。中国宣称将伺美国行为而动。双方仍有机会握手言和，避免贸易战。尽管美国拟定的清单是对中国窃取美国公司知识产权的回应，特朗普总统将与中国的贸易赤字视作单独的侮辱。若是中国同意购买更多的美国产品，关税之战或可避免。

But this skirmish follows others. On March 23rd America imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium from some countries, including China. That prompted tariffs covering around $3bn of American exports to China. More retaliation is expected, as the Chinese react to separate American tariffs on solar panels and washing machines.

    但小争端接踵而至。3月23日，美国对包括中国在内的一些国家的钢铁和铝增收关税，关税涵盖了约30亿美国出口至中国的产品。更多的报复性措施还在后头，中国将对美国征收进口太阳能板和洗衣机关税予以回击。

Historians of trade have an advantage over those who study wars of the military kind. Each side in a trade dispute lays out in detail the products to be affected. That makes it easier to analyse their strategies.

   相较于军事战争史专家，贸易史学家有优势。有贸易争端的双方将受影响的产品事无巨细地罗列出来，有助于他们分析策略。

Mr Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium turn out to be rather crude. They are an attempt to protect a single industry by blocking foreign competition, guided by a mistaken belief that this will make it stronger.

   特朗普总统加征钢铁和铝关税的做法非常粗鄙。这是规避外国竞争，保护单一产业的一种尝试，其指导思想是错误的，以为这样能使产业更强大。

By contrast, China’s retaliation, and the latest American threats over intellectual property, are more sophisticated. Rather than coddling one industry, they are meant to prod a trading partner into changing its behaviour. They are means, not ends.

    相比之下，中国的报复措施以及最近美国威胁知识产权剽窃则精妙得多。这些报复性措施旨在刺激贸易伙伴改变行为，而非一味呵护某一产业。报复是手段，而非目的。

This week’s American list is designed to hit products benefiting from China’s industrial policy, including its “Made in China 2025” plan to dominate certain strategic sectors. Industrial robots, motors for electric vehicles and semiconductors are all in its sights. (At least 90 products, including aircraft parts and cars, recorded no Chinese exports to America in 2017 and may be intended as a pre-emptive strike.)

    本周的美国清单重点打击受益于中国产业政策的产品，包括旨在垄断某些战略性行业的“中国制造2025”计划。工业机器人、电动汽车发动机和半导体都在此列。（至少90种产品，包括飞机零部件、汽车，2017年中国未向美国出口的产品可能成为美国先发制人打击的对象。）