读Geopolitical Alpha（五）——Politics

之前作者已经说了，自己有的是Framework，而不是理论之类足够精确的东西，这里他引用了一下Tetlock的思路：

For Tetlock, the high scorers are those who “know many small things(tricks of their trade), are skeptical of grand schemes, see explanation andprediction not as deductive exercises but rather as exercises in flexible ‘adhocery’ that require stitching together diverse sources of information.”

If accurate forecasts via “ad hocery” is what you want, you came tothe right place. There is plenty of it coming up! This book is about toshower you with it!

虽然作者认为其样品有偏、并不完全认同其得到结论的方式 —— 这当然并不重要。作者接着讲：

I first apply Tetlock’s suggested “ad hocery” to political constraints.Not all constraints are created equal, and power is the most important constraint – a lesson learned from years of applying the framework. Power is more important than wealth, the economy, markets,geopolitics, demographics, etc. It also dominates individual policymakerpreferences, particularly as they cannot pursue their intentions withoutpolitical capital.

作者在这一章第二次重复了：

“You may have all the money, Raymond … but I have all the men withguns.”

— Frank Underwood, vice president of the United Statesof America inHouse of Cards

对，大名鼎鼎的纸牌屋说的，“QG子里面出ZQ”的美国版 —— 以说明政治的重要性。

如何做呢？作者首先介绍了“政治资本曲线”（Political Capital）：

不多说了哈 —— 图上已经表明，Reform有风险。作者如何衡量这个东西呢？

Popularity: Policymakers who enjoy public support have political capital in the bank.

Time in power: If leaders are not vigilant, their time spent in power can drag down their popularity.

Legislative math: In democracies, room to maneuver depends on the legislative math.

Economic context: A good economic crisis may help spur reforms, but it is difficult to see the incumbent ever benefiting.

Special interest group support: In wielding political capital, powerful special interest groups have a collective action advantage over the broader population.

Global momentum: Political movements often spread through osmosis, or a “regional contingency factor.”

作者将其应用于约翰逊，其在后两个方面占优，所以赢了，但是这是在进行短期分析：

The ad-hoc method I applied to the Johnson scenario measures political capital in the short term and allows investors to forecast policies over

the course of a policymaker’s term but not beyond.

长期分析的方法，作者使用了中间选民理论（Median Voter Theorem）：

Developed in the 1950s, MVT is one of the few codified theoriesof political science. It posits that to win an election or stay inpower, parties and politicians approximate the policy choices of themedian voter.

虽然其在学术界受到了一定的挑战，但是在投资方面，作者认为其相当有效。

当然，作为一个学术理论，其有一定的假设条件 —— 但是前两者都难以证伪/证实：

• Voters’ preferences are “single-peaked,” meaning voters prefer onepolicy outcome over all other potential outcomes. This is a toughone. It is not clear that this is true at all.

• Preferences are considered over a single policy dimension. Forexample, a voter either supports gun legislation or not, or wantsa greater or smaller role for the state in the economy. And ineach election, the median voter makes a decision on this singlepolicy dimension. It is also difficult to ascertain the validity of thisassumption.

• Politicians want to attain, or retain, political capital above everythingelse, including consistent policy and positive societal outcomes –perhaps the toughest assumption to make of all three. (Just kidding!)

政治家，作为最实际的人，应该都已经在应用了：

It posits that, to win andmaintain power, policymakers should follow a three-step process:

1. Identify the central issue of the day.

2. Ascertain the median voter’s position on that issue.

3. Asymptotically approach the median voter’s position, outflankingopponents in the process.

作者以川皇为例：

President Trump successfully identified the central issue of the 2016election: globalization versus economic nationalism. He next ascertainedwhere the American voter stood between those extremes. To the shockof most pundits, the American median voter was far less supportiveof globalization (free trade and immigration) than assumed. Finally, Trump catered correctly to the median voter’s position and won as aresult.

理论之所以有效，是因为：

Median voter theory is such a powerful tool for predicting outcomesbecause it forces all policymakers to shift to the median position, lest theybecome irrelevant political outliers.

题眼在force —— 还是说，个人偏好不重要，现实的约束更重要。

下图尝试着展现了近几十年的风潮变化：